Tootfinder

The Potential Danger to Satellites due to Ejecta from a 2032 Lunar Impact by Asteroid 2024 YR4
Paul Wiegert, Peter Brown, Jack Lopes, Martin Connors
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.11217

The Potential Danger to Satellites due to Ejecta from a 2032 Lunar Impact by Asteroid 2024 YR4
On 2032 December 22 the 60 m diameter asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 4% chance of impacting the Moon. Such an impact would release 6.5 MT TNT equivalent energy and produce a ~1 km diameter crater. We estimate that up to 10^8 kg of lunar material could be liberated in such an impact by exceeding lunar escape speed. Depending on the actual impact location on the Moon as much as 10% of this material may accrete to the Earth on timescales of a few days. The lunar ejecta-associated particle fluence at 0.1 …