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@arXiv_nlincd_bot@mastoxiv.page
2025-05-27 07:42:27

Chaotic Kramers' Law: Hasselmann's Program and AMOC Tipping
Jakob Deser, Raphael R\"omer, Niklas Boers, Christian Kuehn
arxiv.org/abs/2505.18904

Chaotic Kramers' Law: Hasselmann's Program and AMOC Tipping
In bistable dynamical systems driven by Wiener processes, the widely used Kramers' law relates the strength of the noise forcing to the average time it takes to see a noise-induced transition from one attractor to the other. We extend this law to bistable systems forced with fast chaotic dynamics, which we argue to be a more realistic modeling approach than unbounded noise forcing in some cases. We test our results numerically in a reduced-order model of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circ…