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Bayesian Surrogates for Risk-Aware Pre-Assessment of Aging Bridge Portfolios
Sophia V. Kuhn, Rafael Bischof, Marius Weber, Antoine Binggeli, Michael A. Kraus, Walter Kaufmann, Fernando P\'erez-Cruz
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.25031

Bayesian Surrogates for Risk-Aware Pre-Assessment of Aging Bridge Portfolios
Aging infrastructure portfolios pose a critical resource allocation challenge: deciding which structures require intervention and which can safely remain in service. Structural assessments must balance the trade-off between cheaper, conservative analysis methods and accurate but costly simulations that do not scale portfolio-wide. We propose Bayesian neural network (BNN) surrogates for rapid structural pre-assessment of worldwide common bridge types, such as reinforced concrete frame bridges. T…