Tootfinder

From Radar to Risk: Building a High-Resolution Hail Database for Austria And Estimating Risk Through the Integration of Distributional Neural Networks into the Metastatistical Framework
Gregor Ehrensperger, Vera Katharina Meyer, Marc-Andr\'e Falkensteiner, Tobias Hell
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.06429

From Radar to Risk: Building a High-Resolution Hail Database for Austria And Estimating Risk Through the Integration of Distributional Neural Networks into the Metastatistical Framework
This study makes significant contributions to the understanding of hail climatology in Austria. First, it introduces a comprehensive database of hailstone sizes, constructed from three-dimensional radar data spanning 2009 to 2022 and calibrated by approximately 5000 verified hail reports. The database serves as foundation for describing the short-term climatology of hail and provides the data necessary for estimating hail risk maps with enhanced spatial resolution and quality. Second, the…

'[T]the standard it proposes has no fixed boundaries. No definition of danger. No threshold for entry. No requirement that the belief be verified, or even verifiable. If the court adopts it, ICE will will be one of the many law enforcement agencies not needing a warrant. It will only need a justification. A welfare call. A safety tip. A closed door. A silence misread or claimed as threat.'
The Supreme Court might turbocharge ICE more than Trump’s big bill.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2025/07/supreme-court-ice-trump-big-bill-deportations.html

Verification of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center solar flare forecast (1998-2024)
Enrico Camporeale, Thomas E. Berger
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.01114 https://

Verification of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center solar flare forecast (1998-2024)
The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) issues the official U.S. government forecast for M-class and X-class solar flares, yet the skill of these forecasts has never been comprehensively verified. In this study, we evaluate the SWPC probabilistic flare forecasts over a 26-year period (1998-2024), comparing them to several zero-cost and statistical baselines including persistence, climatology, Naive Bayes, and logistic regression. We find that the SWPC model does not outperform these bas…