Tootfinder

NICE^k Metrics: Unified and Multidimensional Framework for Evaluating Deterministic Solar Forecasting Accuracy
Cyril Voyant, Milan Despotovic, Luis Garcia-Gutierrez, Rodrigo Amaro e Silva, Philippe Lauret, Ted Soubdhan, Nadjem Bailek
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.01457

NICE^k Metrics: Unified and Multidimensional Framework for Evaluating Deterministic Solar Forecasting Accuracy
Accurate solar energy output prediction is key for integrating renewables into grids, maintaining stability, and improving energy management. However, standard error metrics such as Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Skill Scores (SS) fail to capture the multidimensional nature of solar irradiance forecasting. These metrics lack sensitivity to forecastability, rely on arbitrary baselines (e.g., clear-sky models), and are poorly suited for operational use. To addres…