Tootfinder

Sequential Counterfactual Inference for Temporal Clinical Data: Addressing the Time Traveler Dilemma
Jingya Cheng, Alaleh Azhir, Jiazi Tian, Hossein Estiri
https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.21168 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2602.21168 https://arxiv.org/html/2602.21168
arXiv:2602.21168v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Counterfactual inference enables clinicians to ask "what if" questions about patient outcomes, but standard methods assume feature independence and simultaneous modifiability -- assumptions violated by longitudinal clinical data. We introduce the Sequential Counterfactual Framework, which respects temporal dependencies in electronic health records by distinguishing immutable features (chronic diagnoses) from controllable features (lab values) and modeling how interventions propagate through time. Applied to 2,723 COVID-19 patients (383 Long COVID heart failure cases, 2,340 matched controls), we demonstrate that 38-67% of patients with chronic conditions would require biologically impossible counterfactuals under naive methods. We identify a cardiorenal cascade (CKD -> AKI -> HF) with relative risks of 2.27 and 1.19 at each step, illustrating temporal propagation that sequential -- but not naive -- counterfactuals can capture. Our framework transforms counterfactual explanation from "what if this feature were different?" to "what if we had intervened earlier, and how would that propagate forward?" -- yielding clinically actionable insights grounded in biological plausibility.
toXiv_bot_toot

Olha, boa. As notificações do bridgy fed sobre respostas no bluesky de gente que não estš na ponte (mas permite que o que escreve seja visto de fora) agora permitem responder-lhes diretamente.
Parece que vou deixar de "falar sozinho", para grande alívio de alguns dos meus compinchas cš deste lado. :p

Sources: Nvidia is in advanced talks to acquire Tel Aviv-based AI21, which is building its own LLMs, for $2B to $3B; the deal would resemble an acquihire (CTech)
https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/rkbh00xnzl

Nvidia in advanced talks to acquire AI21 in $2-3 billion deal focused on talent
EXCLUSIVE: The move would mark Nvidia’s fourth major Israeli purchase and signal the limits of Israel’s LLM ambitions.