Tootfinder

Taking the Highway or the Green Road? Conditional Temperature Forecasts Under Alternative SSP Scenarios
Anthoulla Phella, Vasco J. Gabriel, Luis F. Martins
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.09384

Taking the Highway or the Green Road? Conditional Temperature Forecasts Under Alternative SSP Scenarios
In this paper, using the Bayesian VAR framework suggested by Chan et al. (2025), we produce conditional temperature forecasts up until 2050, by exploiting both equality and inequality constraints on climate drivers like carbon dioxide or methane emissions. Engaging in a counterfactual scenario analysis by imposing a Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenario of "business as-usual", with no mitigation and high emissions, we observe that conditional and unconditional forecasts would follow a s…

A robust framework for frictional fault contact in geological formations using a stabilized augmented Lagrangian approach
Matteo Frigo, Nicola Castelletto, Matteo Cusini, Randolph R. Settgast, Hamdi A. Tchelepi
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.20528

A robust framework for frictional fault contact in geological formations using a stabilized augmented Lagrangian approach
Numerical simulations are essential for evaluating the performance and safety of geological engineered systems such as geologic carbon storage sites, enhanced geothermal fields, and oil and gas reservoirs. A key challenge lies in accurately modeling the frictional contact behavior along fault surfaces. This problem involves inequality constraints that arise from the physics of frictional slip, requiring specialized numerical methods to handle the resulting highly nonlinear and path-dependent be…