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Vaccinating Now or Vaccinating Later: Separating Pull-Forward and Net Effects Using a Dynamic Regression Discontinuity Design
Fabio I. Martinenghi, Mesfin Genie, Katie Attwell, Huong Le, Hannah Moore, Aregawi G. Gebremariam, Bette Liu, Francesco Paolucci, Christopher C. Blyth
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.22714

Vaccinating Now or Vaccinating Later: Separating Pull-Forward and Net Effects Using a Dynamic Regression Discontinuity Design
We study the impact of a novel COVID-19 vaccine mandate, targeting graduating high-school students, on first vaccine uptake. In 2021, the State Government of Western Australia (WA) required attendees at "Leavers" -- a large-scale state-supported graduation party held annually in November in a WA regional town -- to be vaccinated. Using administrative data that link date-of-birth (at the month level), school attendance, and first-dose vaccination records, we exploit the strict school-age laws in…