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Inferring Effects of Major Events through Discontinuity Forecasting of Population Anxiety
Siddharth Mangalik, Ojas Deshpande, Adithya V. Ganesan, Sean A. P. Clouston, H. Andrew Schwartz
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.21722

Inferring Effects of Major Events through Discontinuity Forecasting of Population Anxiety
Estimating community-specific mental health effects of local events is vital for public health policy. While forecasting mental health scores alone offers limited insights into the impact of events on community well-being, quasi-experimental designs like the Longitudinal Regression Discontinuity Design (LRDD) from econometrics help researchers derive more effects that are more likely to be causal from observational data. LRDDs aim to extrapolate the size of changes in an outcome (e.g. a discont…