Tootfinder

Epistemic Trade-Off: An Analysis of the Operational Breakdown and Ontological Limits of "Certainty-Scope" in AI
Generoso Immediato
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.19304 htt…

Epistemic Trade-Off: An Analysis of the Operational Breakdown and Ontological Limits of "Certainty-Scope" in AI
Floridi's conjecture offers a compelling intuition about the fundamental trade-off between certainty and scope in artificial intelligence (AI) systems. This exploration remains crucial, not merely as a philosophical exercise, but as a potential compass for guiding AI investments, particularly in safety-critical industrial domains where the level of attention will surely be higher in the future. However, while intellectually coherent, its formalization ultimately freezes this insight into a susp…

Towards Trustworthy Breast Tumor Segmentation in Ultrasound using Monte Carlo Dropout and Deep Ensembles for Epistemic Uncertainty Estimation
Toufiq Musah, Chinasa Kalaiwo, Maimoona Akram, Ubaida Napari Abdulai, Maruf Adewole, Farouk Dako, Adaobi Chiazor Emegoakor, Udunna C. Anazodo, Prince Ebenezer Adjei, Confidence Raymond
https://arxiv.…

Towards Trustworthy Breast Tumor Segmentation in Ultrasound using Monte Carlo Dropout and Deep Ensembles for Epistemic Uncertainty Estimation
Automated segmentation of BUS images is important for precise lesion delineation and tumor characterization, but is challenged by inherent artifacts and dataset inconsistencies. In this work, we evaluate the use of a modified Residual Encoder U-Net for breast ultrasound segmentation, with a focus on uncertainty quantification. We identify and correct for data duplication in the BUSI dataset, and use a deduplicated subset for more reliable estimates of generalization performance. Epistemic uncer…

A very big thank you to everyone who participated in the Epistemic Justice Network workshop at the UKFIET Conference in Oxford. Your discussions enriched our insights which we will work on for broader dissemination.
The symbolism was not lost on me - discussing epistemic humility and epistemic justice in a room with an old portrait of the Bishop of Calcutta during colonial times and a new portrait of the leading professor, Prof Aditi Lahiri, born in (then) a newly independent Calcutta.…

Scaling Multi-Agent Epistemic Planning through GNN-Derived Heuristics
Giovanni Briglia, Francesco Fabiano, Stefano Mariani
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.12840 https://

Scaling Multi-Agent Epistemic Planning through GNN-Derived Heuristics
Multi-agent Epistemic Planning (MEP) is an autonomous planning framework for reasoning about both the physical world and the beliefs of agents, with applications in domains where information flow and awareness among agents are critical. The richness of MEP requires states to be represented as Kripke structures, i.e., directed labeled graphs. This representation limits the applicability of existing heuristics, hindering the scalability of epistemic solvers, which must explore an exponential sear…

Data Gluttony: Epistemic Risks, Dependent Testing and Data Reuse in Large Datasets
Reid Dale, Jordan Rodu, Maria E. Currie, Mike Baiocchi
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.16552 https:…

Data Gluttony: Epistemic Risks, Dependent Testing and Data Reuse in Large Datasets
Large-scale registries have collected vast amounts of data which has enabled investigators to efficiently conduct studies of observational data. Common practice is for investigators to use all data meeting the inclusion criteria of their study to perform their analysis. We term this common practice data gluttony. It has apparent formal justification insofar as this approach maximizes per-study power. But this comes at a cost: data reuse affects the shape of the tail distribution of inferential …

Maximally $\psi-$epistemic models cannot explain gambling with two qubits
Sagnik Ray, Anubhav Chaturvedi, Debashis Saha
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.10437 https://

Maximally $ψ-$epistemic models cannot explain gambling with two qubits
We investigate the minimal proof for ruling out maximally $ψ-$epistemic interpretations of quantum theory, in which the indistinguishable nature of two quantum states is fully explained by the epistemic overlap of their corresponding distributions over ontic states. To this end, we extend the standard notion of epistemic overlap by considering a penalized distinguishability game involving two states and three possible answers, named as Quantum Gambling. In this context, using only two pure sta…

Intuitionistic modal logics: epistemic reasoning with distributed knowledge
Philippe Balbiani
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.13038 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.1…

Intuitionistic modal logics: epistemic reasoning with distributed knowledge
In this article, we add a diamond to the parametrized box-based propositional language of intuitionistic doxastic logic and intuitionistic epistemic logic introduced by Artemov and Protopopescu. The main results of this article are the proofs of completeness with respect to their appropriate relational semantics of the resulting intuitionistic doxastic logic and intuitionistic epistemic logic with distributed knowledge.

Cognitive Castes: Artificial Intelligence, Epistemic Stratification, and the Dissolution of Democratic Discourse
Craig S Wright
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.14218

Cognitive Castes: Artificial Intelligence, Epistemic Stratification, and the Dissolution of Democratic Discourse
Artificial intelligence functions not as an epistemic leveller, but as an accelerant of cognitive stratification, entrenching and formalising informational castes within liberal-democratic societies. Synthesising formal epistemology, political theory, algorithmic architecture, and economic incentive structures, the argument traces how contemporary AI systems selectively amplify the reasoning capacity of individuals equipped with recursive abstraction, symbolic logic, and adversarial interrogati…

CLEAR: Calibrated Learning for Epistemic and Aleatoric Risk
Ilia Azizi, Juraj Bodik, Jakob Heiss, Bin Yu
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.08150 https://

CLEAR: Calibrated Learning for Epistemic and Aleatoric Risk
Accurate uncertainty quantification is critical for reliable predictive modeling, especially in regression tasks. Existing methods typically address either aleatoric uncertainty from measurement noise or epistemic uncertainty from limited data, but not necessarily both in a balanced way. We propose CLEAR, a calibration method with two distinct parameters, $γ_1$ and $γ_2$, to combine the two uncertainty components for improved conditional coverage. CLEAR is compatible with any pair of aleatori…

Crisis Messaging Journeys: Epistemic Struggles over CDC Guidance During COVID-19
Tawfiq Ammari
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.10906 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.…

Crisis Messaging Journeys: Epistemic Struggles over CDC Guidance During COVID-19
This study investigates how the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) communicated COVID-19 guidance on Twitter and how publics responded over two years of the pandemic. Drawing on 275,124 tweets mentioning or addressing @CDCgov, I combine BERTopic modeling, sentiment analysis (VADER), credibility checks (Iffy Index), change point detection (PELT), and survival analysis to trace three phases of discourse: (1) early hoax claims and testing debates, (2) lockdown and mask controver…

Designing Value-Aligned Traffic Agents through Conflict Sensitivity
Astrid Rakow, Joe Collenette, Maike Schwammberger, Marija Slavkovik, Gleifer Vs Alves
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.18284

Designing Value-Aligned Traffic Agents through Conflict Sensitivity
Autonomous traffic agents (ATAs) are expected to act in ways tat are not only safe, but also aligned with stakeholder values across legal, social, and moral dimensions. In this paper, we adopt an established formal model of conflict from epistemic game theory to support the development of such agents. We focus on value conflicts-situations in which agents face competing goals rooted in value-laden situations and show how conflict analysis can inform key phases of the design process. This includ…

Who Sees What? Structured Thought-Action Sequences for Epistemic Reasoning in LLMs
Luca Annese, Sabrina Patania, Silvia Serino, Tom Foulsham, Silvia Rossi, Azzurra Ruggeri, Dimitri Ognibene
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.14564

Who Sees What? Structured Thought-Action Sequences for Epistemic Reasoning in LLMs
Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) and reasoning frameworks have opened new possibilities for improving the perspective -taking capabilities of autonomous agents. However, tasks that involve active perception, collaborative reasoning, and perspective taking (understanding what another agent can see or knows) pose persistent challenges for current LLM-based systems. This study investigates the potential of structured examples derived from transformed solution graphs generated by the…

Measuring Epistemic Humility in Multimodal Large Language Models
Bingkui Tong, Jiaer Xia, Sifeng Shang, Kaiyang Zhou
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.09658 https://

Measuring Epistemic Humility in Multimodal Large Language Models
Hallucinations in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) -- where the model generates content inconsistent with the input image -- pose significant risks in real-world applications, from misinformation in visual question answering to unsafe errors in decision-making. Existing benchmarks primarily test recognition accuracy, i.e., evaluating whether models can select the correct answer among distractors. This overlooks an equally critical capability for trustworthy AI: recognizing when none of …

Unified Framework for Hybrid Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty Propagation via Decoupled Multi-Probability Density Evolution Method
Yi Luo, Meng-Ze Lyu, Matteo Broggi, Marko Thiele, Vasileios C. Fragkoulis, Michael Beer
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.09535

Unified Framework for Hybrid Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty Propagation via Decoupled Multi-Probability Density Evolution Method
This paper presents a unified framework for uncertainty propagation in dynamical systems involving hybrid aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The framework accommodates precise probabilistic, imprecise probabilistic, and non-probabilistic representations, including the distribution-free probability-box (p-box). A central aspect of the framework involves transforming the original uncertainty inputs into an augmented random space, yielding the primary challenge of determining the conditional pr…

Beyond Human Judgment: A Bayesian Evaluation of LLMs' Moral Values Understanding
Maciej Skorski, Alina Landowska
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.13804 https://

Beyond Human Judgment: A Bayesian Evaluation of LLMs' Moral Values Understanding
How do large language models understand moral dimensions compared to humans? This first large-scale Bayesian evaluation of market-leading language models provides the answer. In contrast to prior work using deterministic ground truth (majority or inclusion rules), we model annotator disagreements to capture both aleatoric uncertainty (inherent human disagreement) and epistemic uncertainty (model domain sensitivity). We evaluate top language models (Claude Sonnet 4, DeepSeek-V3, Llama 4 Maveri…

The Epistemic Support-Point Filter (ESPF): A Bounded Possibilistic Framework for Ordinal State Estimation
Moriba Jah, Van Haslett
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.20806 https://

The Epistemic Support-Point Filter (ESPF): A Bounded Possibilistic Framework for Ordinal State Estimation
Traditional state estimation methods rely on probabilistic assumptions that often collapse epistemic uncertainty into scalar beliefs, risking overconfidence in sparse or adversarial sensing environments. We introduce the Epistemic Support-Point Filter (ESPF), a novel non-Bayesian filtering framework fully grounded in possibility theory and epistemic humility. ESPF redefines the evolution of belief over state space using compatibility-weighted support updates, surprisalaware pruning, and adaptiv…

Join us today for 'Relational Ecologies of Knowledge and Practice: A Workshop of the Epistemic Justice Network', following from the UNESCO Chairs Forum in Dakar.
UKFIET Conference in Oxford, Wednesday, 17 September, 13:30-15:00
We will brainstorm actionable ideas for achieving epistemic justice as we face broader global challenges of opposition, to imagine visions and learn from lived experiences of reparative partnerships for research and knowledge co-creation.

Online Bayesian Risk-Averse Reinforcement Learning
Yuhao Wang, Enlu Zhou
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.14077 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.14077

Online Bayesian Risk-Averse Reinforcement Learning
In this paper, we study the Bayesian risk-averse formulation in reinforcement learning (RL). To address the epistemic uncertainty due to a lack of data, we adopt the Bayesian Risk Markov Decision Process (BRMDP) to account for the parameter uncertainty of the unknown underlying model. We derive the asymptotic normality that characterizes the difference between the Bayesian risk value function and the original value function under the true unknown distribution. The results indicate that the Baye…

Strategic Integration of AI Chatbots in Physics Teacher Preparation: A TPACK-SWOT Analysis of Pedagogical, Epistemic, and Cybersecurity Dimensions
N. Mohammadipour
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.14860

Strategic Integration of AI Chatbots in Physics Teacher Preparation: A TPACK-SWOT Analysis of Pedagogical, Epistemic, and Cybersecurity Dimensions
This study investigates the strategic and epistemically responsible integration of AI-powered chatbots into physics teacher education by employing a TPACK-guided SWOT framework across three structured learning activities. Conducted within a university-level capstone course on innovative tools for physics instruction, the activities targeted key intersections of technological, pedagogical, and content knowledge (TPACK) through chatbot-assisted tasks: simplifying abstract physics concepts, constr…

Integrating Belief Domains into Probabilistic Logic Programs
Damiano Azzolini, Fabrizio Riguzzi, Theresa Swift
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.17291 https://arx…

Integrating Belief Domains into Probabilistic Logic Programs
Probabilistic Logic Programming (PLP) under the Distribution Semantics is a leading approach to practical reasoning under uncertainty. An advantage of the Distribution Semantics is its suitability for implementation as a Prolog or Python library, available through two well-maintained implementations, namely ProbLog and cplint/PITA. However, current formulations of the Distribution Semantics use point-probabilities, making it difficult to express epistemic uncertainty, such as arises from, for e…

A case study examining graduate student sensemaking using the epistemic game framework for \v{Laplace}s equation in upper-level electrostatics
Jaya Shivangani Kashyap, Chandralekha Singh
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.12487

A case study examining graduate student sensemaking using the epistemic game framework for \v{Laplace}s equation in upper-level electrostatics
This case study used individual interviews to investigate graduate student sense-making in upper-level electrostatics in the context of problems that can be efficiently solved for the electric potential using \v{Laplace}s equation. Although there are many technical mathematical issues involved in solving \v{Laplace}s equation, the focus of this research is not on those issues. Instead, the focus is on structural issues such as whether students recognize when solving \v{Laplace}s equation would …

Improving Active Learning for Melody Estimation by Disentangling Uncertainties
Aayush Jaiswal, Parampreet Singh, Vipul Arora
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.17375 https://

Improving Active Learning for Melody Estimation by Disentangling Uncertainties
Estimating the fundamental frequency, or melody, is a core task in Music Information Retrieval (MIR). Various studies have explored signal processing, machine learning, and deep-learning-based approaches, with a very recent focus on utilizing uncertainty in active learning settings for melody estimation. However, these approaches do not investigate the relative effectiveness of different uncertainties. In this work, we follow a framework that disentangles aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties t…

Optimal Simultaneous Byzantine Agreement, Common Knowledge and Limited Information Exchange
Ron van der Meyden
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.03418 https://arx…

Optimal Simultaneous Byzantine Agreement, Common Knowledge and Limited Information Exchange
In order to develop solutions that perform actions as early as possible, analysis of distributed algorithms using epistemic logic has generally concentrated on ``full information protocols'', which may be inefficient with respect to space and computation time. The paper reconsiders the epistemic analysis of the problem of Simultaneous Byzantine Agreement with respect to weaker, but more practical, exchanges of information. The paper first clarifies some issues concerning both the specification …

Situated Epistemic Infrastructures: A Diagnostic Framework for Post-Coherence Knowledge
Matthew Kelly
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.04995 https://arxiv.org/pd…

Situated Epistemic Infrastructures: A Diagnostic Framework for Post-Coherence Knowledge
Large Language Models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT have rendered visible the fragility of contemporary knowledge infrastructures by simulating coherence while bypassing traditional modes of citation, authority, and validation. This paper introduces the Situated Epistemic Infrastructures (SEI) framework as a diagnostic tool for analyzing how knowledge becomes authoritative across hybrid human-machine systems under post-coherence conditions. Rather than relying on stable scholarly domains or bounded co…

Epistemic Scarcity: The Economics of Unresolvable Unknowns
Craig S Wright
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.01483 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2507…

Epistemic Scarcity: The Economics of Unresolvable Unknowns
This paper presents a praxeological analysis of artificial intelligence and algorithmic governance, challenging assumptions about the capacity of machine systems to sustain economic and epistemic order. Drawing on Misesian a priori reasoning and Austrian theories of entrepreneurship, we argue that AI systems are incapable of performing the core functions of economic coordination: interpreting ends, discovering means, and communicating subjective value through prices. Where neoclassical and beha…

A Dynamical Cartography of the Epistemic Diffusion of Artificial Intelligence in Neuroscience
Sylvain Fontaine
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.01651 https://

A Dynamical Cartography of the Epistemic Diffusion of Artificial Intelligence in Neuroscience
Neuroscience and AI have an intertwined history, largely relayed in the literature of both fields. In recent years, due to the engineering orientations of AI research and the monopoly of industry for its large-scale applications, the mutual expansion of neuroscience and AI in fundamental research seems challenged. In this paper, we bring some empirical evidences that, on the contrary, AI and neuroscience are continuing to grow together, but with a pronounced interest in the fields of study rela…

The meaning of prompts and the prompts of meaning: Semiotic reflections and modelling
Martin Thellefsen, Amalia Nurma Dewi, Bent Sorensen
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.14250 https:…

The meaning of prompts and the prompts of meaning: Semiotic reflections and modelling
This paper explores prompts and prompting in large language models (LLMs) as dynamic semiotic phenomena, drawing on Peirce's triadic model of signs, his nine sign types, and the Dynacom model of communication. The aim is to reconceptualize prompting not as a technical input mechanism but as a communicative and epistemic act involving an iterative process of sign formation, interpretation, and refinement. The theoretical foundation rests on Peirce's semiotics, particularly the interplay between …

Reasoning About Knowledge on Regular Expressions is 2EXPTIME-complete
Avijeet Ghosh, Sujata Ghosh, Fran\c{c}ois Schwarzentruber
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.09784 https://

Reasoning About Knowledge on Regular Expressions is 2EXPTIME-complete
Logics for reasoning about knowledge and actions have seen many applications in various domains of multi-agent systems, including epistemic planning. Change of knowledge based on observations about the surroundings forms a key aspect in such planning scenarios. Public Observation Logic (POL) is a variant of public announcement logic for reasoning about knowledge that gets updated based on public observations. Each state in an epistemic (Kripke) model is equipped with a set of expected observati…

Lovely to give the keynote 'On Epistemic Humility: storytelling, positionalities, and just survival in/through research', for the Higher Degree Research Forum, University of South Australia.
I draw on post-colonial, Black, and Indigenous scholarship to problematise what we know and how we know.
#HigherEducation

DRO-EDL-MPC: Evidential Deep Learning-Based Distributionally Robust Model Predictive Control for Safe Autonomous Driving
Hyeongchan Ham, Heejin Ahn
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.05710

DRO-EDL-MPC: Evidential Deep Learning-Based Distributionally Robust Model Predictive Control for Safe Autonomous Driving
Safety is a critical concern in motion planning for autonomous vehicles. Modern autonomous vehicles rely on neural network-based perception, but making control decisions based on these inference results poses significant safety risks due to inherent uncertainties. To address this challenge, we present a distributionally robust optimization (DRO) framework that accounts for both aleatoric and epistemic perception uncertainties using evidential deep learning (EDL). Our approach introduces a novel…

On Efficient Bayesian Exploration in Model-Based Reinforcement Learning
Alberto Caron, Chris Hicks, Vasilios Mavroudis
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.02639 htt…

On Efficient Bayesian Exploration in Model-Based Reinforcement Learning
In this work, we address the challenge of data-efficient exploration in reinforcement learning by examining existing principled, information-theoretic approaches to intrinsic motivation. Specifically, we focus on a class of exploration bonuses that targets epistemic uncertainty rather than the aleatoric noise inherent in the environment. We prove that these bonuses naturally signal epistemic information gains and converge to zero once the agent becomes sufficiently certain about the environment…

Ideometrics: The Science of Generating, Evaluating and Prioritising Ideas
Igor Rudan, Aziz Sheikh
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.08304 https://arxiv.org/pdf/25…

Ideometrics: The Science of Generating, Evaluating and Prioritising Ideas
This paper introduces and outlines a new integrative field, Ideometrics. It is the systematic science of generating, evaluating, and prioritising ideas, based on the proposed sense of ideas and assigning value to information by the brain. Drawing on the structure based on the three fundamental aims, our work maps out the landscape of more than 70 methodologies that were applied to address those three aims across time, disciplines, and epistemic paradigms. The part on generating ideas synthesise…

Confirmation Bias as a Cognitive Resource in LLM-Supported Deliberation
Sander de Jong, Rune M{\o}berg Jacobsen, Niels van Berkel
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.14824 https://

Confirmation Bias as a Cognitive Resource in LLM-Supported Deliberation
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in group decision-making, but their influence risks fostering conformity and reducing epistemic vigilance. Drawing on the Argumentative Theory of Reasoning, we argue that confirmation bias, often seen as detrimental, can be harnessed as a resource when paired with critical evaluation. We propose a three-step process in which individuals first generate ideas independently, then use LLMs to refine and articulate them, and finally engage with LLMs…

A High-order Backpropagation Algorithm for Neural Stochastic Differential Equation Model
Daili Sheng, Minghui Song, Xiang Peng, Xuanqi Dong
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.06292 http…

A High-order Backpropagation Algorithm for Neural Stochastic Differential Equation Model
Neural stochastic differential equation model with a Brownian motion term can capture epistemic uncertainty of deep neural network from the perspective of a dynamical system. The goal of this paper is to improve the convergence rate of the sample-wise backpropagation algorithm in neural stochastic differential equation model which has been proposed in [Archibald et al., SIAM Journal on Numerical Analysis, 62 (2024), pp. 593-621]. It is necessary to emphasize that, improving the convergence orde…

Decision Theory For Large Scale Outlier Detection Using Aleatoric Uncertainty: With a Note on Bayesian FDR
Ryan Warnick
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.01988 https://

Decision Theory For Large Scale Outlier Detection Using Aleatoric Uncertainty: With a Note on Bayesian FDR
Aleatoric and Epistemic uncertainty have achieved recent attention in the literature as different sources from which uncertainty can emerge in stochastic modeling. Epistemic being intrinsic or model based notions of uncertainty, and aleatoric being the uncertainty inherent in the data. We propose a novel decision theoretic framework for outlier detection in the context of aleatoric uncertainty; in the context of Bayesian modeling. The model incorporates bayesian false discovery rate control for…

Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Adaptive Covariance Steering
Aditya Gahlawat, Vivek Khatana, Duo Wang, Sambhu H. Karumanchi, Naira Hovakimyan, Petros Voulgaris
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.04593

Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Adaptive Covariance Steering
We present a methodology for predictable and safe covariance steering control of uncertain nonlinear stochastic processes. The systems under consideration are subject to general uncertainties, which include unbounded random disturbances (aleatoric uncertainties) and incomplete model knowledge (state-dependent epistemic uncertainties). These general uncertainties lead to temporally evolving state distributions that are entirely unknown, can have arbitrary shapes, and may diverge unquantifiably f…

Scalable h-adaptive probabilistic solver for time-independent and time-dependent systems
Akshay Thakur, Sawan Kumar, Matthew Zahr, Souvik Chakraborty
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.09623

Scalable h-adaptive probabilistic solver for time-independent and time-dependent systems
Solving partial differential equations (PDEs) within the framework of probabilistic numerics offers a principled approach to quantifying epistemic uncertainty arising from discretization. By leveraging Gaussian process regression and imposing the governing PDE as a constraint at a finite set of collocation points, probabilistic numerics delivers mesh-free solutions at arbitrary locations. However, the high computational cost, which scales cubically with the number of collocation points, remains…

Systemic Constraints of Undecidability
Seth Bulin
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.01036 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2507.01036

Systemic Constraints of Undecidability
This paper presents a theory of systemic undecidability, reframing incomputability as a structural property of systems rather than a localized feature of specific functions or problems. We define a notion of causal embedding and prove a closure principle: any subsystem that participates functionally in the computation of an undecidable system inherits its undecidability. This result positions undecidability as a pervasive constraint on prediction, modeling, and epistemic access in both natural …

Uncertainty Quantification as a Complementary Latent Health Indicator for Remaining Useful Life Prediction on Turbofan Engines
Lucas Thil (LIX, X), Jesse Read (LIX), Rim Kaddah, Guillaume Florent Doquet
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.06672

Uncertainty Quantification as a Complementary Latent Health Indicator for Remaining Useful Life Prediction on Turbofan Engines
Health Indicators (HIs) are essential for predicting system failures in predictive maintenance. While methods like RaPP (Reconstruction along Projected Pathways) improve traditional HI approaches by leveraging autoencoder latent spaces, their performance can be hindered by both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that integrates uncertainty quantification into autoencoder-based latent spaces, enhancing RaPP-generated HIs. We demonstrate that separa…

Towards Physics Constrained Deep Learning Based Turbulence Model Uncertainty Quantification
Minghan Chu, Weicheng Qian
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.03833 https://

Towards Physics Constrained Deep Learning Based Turbulence Model Uncertainty Quantification
Turbulence Models represent the workhorse for simulations used in engineering design and analysis. Despite their low computational cost and robustness, these models suffer from substantial predictive uncertainty, most of which is epistemic. At present, the Eigenspace Perturbation Method (EPM) is the only approach to estimate these turbulence model uncertainties, using physics based perturbation to the predicted Reynolds stresses. While the EPM address the question of how to perturb the Reynolds…

The Post Science Paradigm of Scientific Discovery in the Era of Artificial Intelligence: Modelling the Collapse of Ideation Costs, Epistemic Inversion, and the End of Knowledge Scarcity
Christian William Callaghan
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.07019

The Post Science Paradigm of Scientific Discovery in the Era of Artificial Intelligence: Modelling the Collapse of Ideation Costs, Epistemic Inversion, and the End of Knowledge Scarcity
This paper develops a theoretical and formal response to the collapse in the marginal cost of ideation caused by artificial intelligence (AI). In challenging the foundational assumption of knowledge scarcity, the paper argues that the key economic constraint is no longer the generation of ideas, but the alignment of ideation with the recursive structure of human needs. Building on previous work, we further develop Experiential Matrix Theory (EMT), a framework that models innovation as a recursi…

Fant\^omas Unconfined: global QCD fits with B\'ezier parameterizations
Lucas Kotz, Aurore Courtoy, T. J. Hobbs, Pavel Nadolsky, Fredrick Olness, Maximiliano Ponce-Chavez, Varada Purohit
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.22969

Fantômas Unconfined: global QCD fits with Bézier parameterizations
Fantômas is a C++ toolkit for exploring the parametrization dependence of parton distribution functions (PDFs) and other correlator functions in quantum chromodynamics (QCD). Fantômas facilitates the generation of adaptable polynomial parametrizations for PDFs, called metamorphs, to find best-fit PDF solutions and quantify the epistemic uncertainty associated with the parametrizations during their fitting. The method employs Bézier curves as universal approximators for a variety of PDF shape…

Toward a Graph-Theoretic Model of Belief: Confidence, Credibility, and Structural Coherence
Saleh Nikooroo
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.03465 https://arxiv.o…

Toward a Graph-Theoretic Model of Belief: Confidence, Credibility, and Structural Coherence
Belief systems are often treated as globally consistent sets of propositions or as scalar-valued probability distributions. Such representations tend to obscure the internal structure of belief, conflate external credibility with internal coherence, and preclude the modeling of fragmented or contradictory epistemic states. This paper introduces a minimal formalism for belief systems as directed, weighted graphs. In this framework, nodes represent individual beliefs, edges encode epistemic relat…

Crosslisted article(s) found for cs.CE. https://arxiv.org/list/cs.CE/new
[1/1]:
- Epistemic Trade-Off: An Analysis of the Operational Breakdown and Ontological Limits of "Certaint...
Generoso Immediato

Replaced article(s) found for cs.DL. https://arxiv.org/list/cs.DL/new
[1/1]:
- Situated Epistemic Infrastructures: A Diagnostic Framework for Post-Coherence Knowledge
Matthew Kelly

Accuracy Paradox in Large Language Models: Regulating Hallucination Risks in Generative AI
Zihao Li, Weiwei Yi, Jiahong Chen
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.13345 https://

Accuracy Paradox in Large Language Models: Regulating Hallucination Risks in Generative AI
As Large Language Models (LLMs) permeate everyday decision-making, their epistemic and societal risks demand urgent scrutiny. Hallucinations, the generation of fabricated, misleading, oversimplified or untrustworthy outputs, has emerged as imperative challenges. While regulatory, academic, and technical discourse position accuracy as the principal benchmark for mitigating such harms, this article contends that overreliance on accuracy misdiagnoses the problem and has counterproductive effect: t…

Uncertainty Estimation using Variance-Gated Distributions
H. Martin Gillis, Isaac Xu, Thomas Trappenberg
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.08846 https://arxiv.org…

Uncertainty Estimation using Variance-Gated Distributions
Evaluation of per-sample uncertainty quantification from neural networks is essential for decision-making involving high-risk applications. A common approach is to use the predictive distribution from Bayesian or approximation models and decompose the corresponding predictive uncertainty into epistemic (model-related) and aleatoric (data-related) components. However, additive decomposition has recently been questioned. In this work, we propose an intuitive framework for uncertainty estimation a…

From Knowledge to Conjectures: A Modal Framework for Reasoning about Hypotheses
Fabio Vitali
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.07304 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2508.07…

From Knowledge to Conjectures: A Modal Framework for Reasoning about Hypotheses
This paper introduces a new family of cognitive modal logics designed to formalize conjectural reasoning: a modal system in which cognitive contexts extend known facts with hypothetical assumptions to explore their consequences. Unlike traditional doxastic and epistemic systems, conjectural logics rely on a principle, called Axiom C ($φ\rightarrow \Boxφ$), that ensures that all established facts are preserved across hypothetical layers. While Axiom C was dismissed in the past due to its assoc…

A Comprehensive Framework for Uncertainty Quantification of Voxel-wise Supervised Models in IVIM MRI
Nicola Casali, Alessandro Brusaferri, Giuseppe Baselli, Stefano Fumagalli, Edoardo Micotti, Gianluigi Forloni, Riaz Hussein, Giovanna Rizzo, Alfonso Mastropietro
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.04588

A Comprehensive Framework for Uncertainty Quantification of Voxel-wise Supervised Models in IVIM MRI
Accurate estimation of intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) parameters from diffusion-weighted MRI remains challenging due to the ill-posed nature of the inverse problem and high sensitivity to noise, particularly in the perfusion compartment. In this work, we propose a probabilistic deep learning framework based on Deep Ensembles (DE) of Mixture Density Networks (MDNs), enabling estimation of total predictive uncertainty and decomposition into aleatoric (AU) and epistemic (EU) components. The m…

A General Framework of Epistemic Forgetting and its Instantiation by Ranking Functions
Christoph Beierle, Alexander Hahn, Diana Howey, Gabriele Kern-Isberner, Kai Sauerwald
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.21441

A General Framework of Epistemic Forgetting and its Instantiation by Ranking Functions
Forgetting as a knowledge management operation deliberately ignores parts of the knowledge and beliefs of an agent, for various reasons. Forgetting has many facets, one may want to forget parts of the syntax, a proposition, or a conditional. In the literature, two main operators suitable for performing forgetting have been proposed and investigated in depth: First, variable elimination is a syntactical method that blends out certain atomic variables to focus on the rest of the language. It has …

Rule-Based Moral Principles for Explaining Uncertainty in Natural Language Generation
Zahra Atf, Peter R Lewis
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.07190 https://arx…

Rule-Based Moral Principles for Explaining Uncertainty in Natural Language Generation
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in high-stakes settings, where explaining uncertainty is both technical and ethical. Probabilistic methods are often opaque and misaligned with expectations of transparency. We propose a framework based on rule-based moral principles for handling uncertainty in LLM-generated text. Using insights from moral psychology and virtue ethics, we define rules such as precaution, deference, and responsibility to guide responses under epistemic or aleato…

Gaze-Aware AI: Mathematical modeling of epistemic experience of the Marginalized for Human-Computer Interaction & AI Systems
Omkar Suresh Hatti
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.19500

Gaze-Aware AI: Mathematical modeling of epistemic experience of the Marginalized for Human-Computer Interaction & AI Systems
The proliferation of artificial intelligence provides an opportunity to create psychological spaciousness in society. Spaciousness is defined as the ability to hold diverse interpersonal interactions and forms the basis for vulnerability that leads to authenticity that leads to prosocial behaviors and thus to societal harmony. This paper demonstrates an attempt to quantify, the human conditioning to subconsciously modify authentic self-expression to fit the norms of the dominant culture. Gaze i…

Uncertainty-aware Planning with Inaccurate Models for Robotized Liquid Handling
Marco Faroni, Carlo Odesco, Andrea Zanchettin, Paolo Rocco
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.20861 https…

Uncertainty-aware Planning with Inaccurate Models for Robotized Liquid Handling
Physics-based simulations and learning-based models are vital for complex robotics tasks like deformable object manipulation and liquid handling. However, these models often struggle with accuracy due to epistemic uncertainty or the sim-to-real gap. For instance, accurately pouring liquid from one container to another poses challenges, particularly when models are trained on limited demonstrations and may perform poorly in novel situations. This paper proposes an uncertainty-aware Monte Carlo T…

Uncertainty Quantification in Probabilistic Machine Learning Models: Theory, Methods, and Insights
Marzieh Ajirak, Anand Ravishankar, Petar M. Djuric
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.05877

Uncertainty Quantification in Probabilistic Machine Learning Models: Theory, Methods, and Insights
Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential in probabilistic machine learning models, particularly for assessing the reliability of predictions. In this paper, we present a systematic framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty in probabilistic models. We focus on Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models and employ scalable Random Fourier Features-based Gaussian Processes to approximate predictive distributions efficiently. We derive a theoretical formulation for UQ, propo…

The Knowledge-Reasoning Dissociation: Fundamental Limitations of LLMs in Clinical Natural Language Inference
Ma\"el Jullien, Marco Valentino, Andr\'e Freitas
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.10777

The Knowledge-Reasoning Dissociation: Fundamental Limitations of LLMs in Clinical Natural Language Inference
Large language models are often assumed to acquire increasingly structured, generalizable internal representations simply by scaling data and parameters. We interrogate this assumption by introducing a Clinical Trial Natural Language Inference benchmark comprising four reasoning families, Causal Attribution, Compositional Grounding, Epistemic Verification, and Risk State Abstraction. Each item is paired with a targeted Ground Knowledge and Meta-Level Reasoning Verification (GKMRV) probe, allowi…

When three experiments are better than two: Avoiding intractable correlated aleatoric uncertainty by leveraging a novel bias--variance tradeoff
Paul Scherer, Andreas Kirsch, Jake P. Taylor-King
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.04363

When three experiments are better than two: Avoiding intractable correlated aleatoric uncertainty by leveraging a novel bias--variance tradeoff
Real-world experimental scenarios are characterized by the presence of heteroskedastic aleatoric uncertainty, and this uncertainty can be correlated in batched settings. The bias--variance tradeoff can be used to write the expected mean squared error between a model distribution and a ground-truth random variable as the sum of an epistemic uncertainty term, the bias squared, and an aleatoric uncertainty term. We leverage this relationship to propose novel active learning strategies that directl…

Compartmentalised Agentic Reasoning for Clinical NLI
Ma\"el Jullien, Lei Xu, Marco Valentino, Andr\'e Freitas
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.10222 https://

Compartmentalised Agentic Reasoning for Clinical NLI
A common assumption holds that scaling data and parameters yields increasingly structured, generalisable internal representations. We interrogate this assumption in clinical natural language inference (NLI) by adopting a benchmark decomposed into four reasoning families, Causal Attribution, Compositional Grounding, Epistemic Verification, and Risk State Abstraction, and introducing CARENLI, a Compartmentalised Agentic Reasoning for Clinical NLI that separates knowledge access from principled in…

Intersectoral Knowledge in AI and Urban Studies: A Framework for Transdisciplinary Research
Rashid Mushkani
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.07507 https://arxiv.…

Intersectoral Knowledge in AI and Urban Studies: A Framework for Transdisciplinary Research
Transdisciplinary approaches are increasingly essential for addressing grand societal challenges, particularly in complex domains such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), urban planning, and social sciences. However, effectively validating and integrating knowledge across distinct epistemic and ontological perspectives poses significant difficulties. This article proposes a six-dimensional framework for assessing and strengthening transdisciplinary knowledge validity in AI and city studies, based …

Benchmarking Uncertainty and its Disentanglement in multi-label Chest X-Ray Classification
Simon Baur, Wojciech Samek, Jackie Ma
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.04457 https://…

Benchmarking Uncertainty and its Disentanglement in multi-label Chest X-Ray Classification
Reliable uncertainty quantification is crucial for trustworthy decision-making and the deployment of AI models in medical imaging. While prior work has explored the ability of neural networks to quantify predictive, epistemic, and aleatoric uncertainties using an information-theoretical approach in synthetic or well defined data settings like natural image classification, its applicability to real life medical diagnosis tasks remains underexplored. In this study, we provide an extensive uncerta…

Reasoning under uncertainty in the game of Cops and Robbers
Dazhu Li, Sujata Ghosh, Fenrong Liu
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.00004 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2508…

Reasoning under uncertainty in the game of Cops and Robbers
The game of Cops and Robbers is an important model for studying computational queries in pursuit-evasion environments, among others. As recent logical explorations have shown, its structure exhibits appealing analogies with modal logic. In this paper, we enrich the game with a setting in which players may have imperfect information. We propose a new formal framework, Epistemic Logic of Cops and Robbers (ELCR), to make the core notions of the game precise, for instance, players' positions, obser…

UbiQTree: Uncertainty Quantification in XAI with Tree Ensembles
Akshat Dubey, Aleksandar An\v{z}el, Bahar \.Ilgen, Georges Hattab
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.09639 https://

UbiQTree: Uncertainty Quantification in XAI with Tree Ensembles
Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques, such as SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), have become essential tools for interpreting complex ensemble tree-based models, especially in high-stakes domains such as healthcare analytics. However, SHAP values are usually treated as point estimates, which disregards the inherent and ubiquitous uncertainty in predictive models and data. This uncertainty has two primary sources: aleatoric and epistemic. The aleatoric uncertainty, which refle…

An Information-Flow Perspective on Explainability Requirements: Specification and Verification
Bernd Finkbeiner, Hadar Frenkel, Julian Siber
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.01479 htt…

An Information-Flow Perspective on Explainability Requirements: Specification and Verification
Explainable systems expose information about why certain observed effects are happening to the agents interacting with them. We argue that this constitutes a positive flow of information that needs to be specified, verified, and balanced against negative information flow that may, e.g., violate privacy guarantees. Since both explainability and privacy require reasoning about knowledge, we tackle these tasks with epistemic temporal logic extended with quantification over counterfactual causes. T…

Replaced article(s) found for cs.AI. https://arxiv.org/list/cs.AI/new
[1/4]:
- Depth-Bounded Epistemic Planning
Thomas Bolander, Alessandro Burigana, Marco Montali

Too Human to Model:The Uncanny Valley of LLMs in Social Simulation -- When Generative Language Agents Misalign with Modelling Principles
Yongchao Zeng, Calum Brown, Mark Rounsevell
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.06310

Too Human to Model:The Uncanny Valley of LLMs in Social Simulation -- When Generative Language Agents Misalign with Modelling Principles
Large language models (LLMs) have been increasingly used to build agents in social simulation because of their impressive abilities to generate fluent, contextually coherent dialogues. Such abilities can enhance the realism of models. However, the pursuit of realism is not necessarily compatible with the epistemic foundation of modelling. We argue that LLM agents, in many regards, are too human to model: they are too expressive, detailed and intractable to be consistent with the abstraction, si…

Variational Uncertainty Decomposition for In-Context Learning
I. Shavindra Jayasekera, Jacob Si, Wenlong Chen, Filippo Valdettaro, A. Aldo Faisal, Yingzhen Li
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.02327

Variational Uncertainty Decomposition for In-Context Learning
As large language models (LLMs) gain popularity in conducting prediction tasks in-context, understanding the sources of uncertainty in in-context learning becomes essential to ensuring reliability. The recent hypothesis of in-context learning performing predictive Bayesian inference opens the avenue for Bayesian uncertainty estimation, particularly for decomposing uncertainty into epistemic uncertainty due to lack of in-context data and aleatoric uncertainty inherent in the in-context predictio…

Peer Review as Structured Commentary: Immutable Identity, Public Dialogue, and Reproducible Scholarship
Craig Steven Wright
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.22497

Peer Review as Structured Commentary: Immutable Identity, Public Dialogue, and Reproducible Scholarship
This paper reconceptualises peer review as structured public commentary. Traditional academic validation is hindered by anonymity, latency, and gatekeeping. We propose a transparent, identity-linked, and reproducible system of scholarly evaluation anchored in open commentary. Leveraging blockchain for immutable audit trails and AI for iterative synthesis, we design a framework that incentivises intellectual contribution, captures epistemic evolution, and enables traceable reputational dynamics.…