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Reconstructing North Korea's Plutonium Production History with Bayesian Inference-Based Reprocessing Waste Analysis
Benjamin Jung, Johannes Bosse, Malte G\"ottsche
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.03865

Reconstructing North Korea's Plutonium Production History with Bayesian Inference-Based Reprocessing Waste Analysis
Although North Korea's nuclear program has been the subject of extensive scrutiny, estimates of its fissile material stockpiles remain fraught with uncertainty. In potential future disarmament agreements, inspectors may need to use nuclear archaeology methods to verify or gain confidence in a North Korean fissile material declaration. This study explores the potential utility of a Bayesian inference-based analysis of the isotopic composition of reprocessing waste to reconstruct the operating hi…