Tootfinder

Graph Learning for Foreign Exchange Rate Prediction and Statistical Arbitrage
Yoonsik Hong, Diego Klabjan
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.14784 https://arxiv.or…

Graph Learning for Foreign Exchange Rate Prediction and Statistical Arbitrage
We propose a two-step graph learning approach for foreign exchange statistical arbitrages (FXSAs), addressing two key gaps in prior studies: the absence of graph-learning methods for foreign exchange rate prediction (FXRP) that leverage multi-currency and currency-interest rate relationships, and the disregard of the time lag between price observation and trade execution. In the first step, to capture complex multi-currency and currency-interest rate relationships, we formulate FXRP as an edge-…

The Republican Majority on the Senate Banking Committee released a press release Friday confirming that they were intentionally eliminating
the “duplicative Office of Financial Research (OFR)”.
According to sources I’ve talked to in the Senate, Republican committee members have shown little concern with the elimination of the Office of Financial Research.
They also seem aware of the concerns over SOFR, because both their “one pager” and “section by section” documents clai…

The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Eliminates the Office of Financial Research—Threatening the Stability of the Treasury Market
Early last week I started working on a piece on why the Federal Reserve didn’t step in during the Trump Tariff Financial Panic. The basic idea of that piece is simply that “repo rates”- the interest rate at which you can, in essence, borrow funds with treasury securities

Modeling Long-term User Behaviors with Diffusion-driven Multi-interest Network for CTR Prediction
Weijiang Lai, Beihong Jin, Yapeng Zhang, Yiyuan Zheng, Rui Zhao, Jian Dong, Jun Lei, Xingxing Wang
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.15311

Modeling Long-term User Behaviors with Diffusion-driven Multi-interest Network for CTR Prediction
CTR (Click-Through Rate) prediction, crucial for recommender systems and online advertising, etc., has been confirmed to benefit from modeling long-term user behaviors. Nonetheless, the vast number of behaviors and complexity of noise interference pose challenges to prediction efficiency and effectiveness. Recent solutions have evolved from single-stage models to two-stage models. However, current two-stage models often filter out significant information, resulting in an inability to capture di…

Demand, and consumer surplus in the payday-loan market: Evidence from British Columbia
Tim Zhang, Amity Quinn
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.15247 https://arxi…

Demand, and consumer surplus in the payday-loan market: Evidence from British Columbia
This study examines how interest rate caps affect the demand for payday loans, using aggregate data from British Columbia (2012--2019) during which the province's maximum fee was reduced from \$23 to \$17 and then to \$15 per \$100 borrowed. Estimating a linear demand function via OLS, we find that lowering interest rate caps significantly increases loan demand. We estimate that the \$8 decrease, from \$23 to \$15 per \$100, raised annual consumer surplus by roughly \$28.6 million (2012 CAD). A…

Discrete time risk models with m-dependent random variables
Nguyen Huy Hoang, Tran Dinh Phung
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.14662 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2508.1…

Discrete time risk models with m-dependent random variables
The main purpose of the paper is to study ruin probabilities in two discrete time risk models under rates of interest, where the premiums and claims are two independent sequences of m-dependent random variables, and the rate of interest is a sequence of identically distributed random variables. Our results extend the corresponding ones for independent random sequences.

I thought this #Guardian / #WaPo piece by some Peter Brennan might be worth a glance, though expecting only 60% stuff everyone knows (or should know), and 40% tedious irrelevant human interest guff. Which just proves that you can never set one's expectations low enough.
Well, I made it as …

Appeals court blocks Trump from removing Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve board before interest rate meeting (Steve Kopack/NBC News)
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/appeals-court-blocks-trump-removing-lisa-cook-federal-reserve-interest-rcna231524
http://www.memeorandum.com/250915/p151#a250915p151

Russian Central Bank cuts interest rate from 18% to 17%: https://benborges.xyz/2025/09/12/russian-central-bank-cuts-interest.html

Rational Bubbles on Dividend-Paying Assets: A Comment on Tirole (1985)
Ngoc-Sang Pham, Alexis Akira Toda
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.12477 https://

Rational Bubbles on Dividend-Paying Assets: A Comment on Tirole (1985)
Tirole (1985) studied an overlapping generations model with capital accumulation and showed that the emergence of asset bubbles solves the capital over-accumulation problem. His Proposition 1(c) claims that if the dividend growth rate is above the bubbleless interest rate (the steady-state interest rate in the Diamond economy without bubbles) but below the population growth rate, then bubbles are necessary in the sense that there exists no bubbleless equilibrium but there exists a unique bubbly…

Extropy Rate: Properties and Application in Feature Selection
Naveen Kumar, Vivek Vijay
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.11242 https://arxi…

Extropy Rate: Properties and Application in Feature Selection
Extropy, a complementary dual of entropy, (proposed by Lad et al. \cite{lad2015extropy} in 2015) has attracted considerable interest from the research community. In this study, we focus on discrete random variables and define conditional extropy, establishing key properties of joint and conditional extropy such as bounds, uncertainty reduction due to additional information, and Lipschitz continuity. We further introduce the concept of extropy rate for a stochastic process of discrete random var…

Modeling pandemics
John F. Dawson, Fred Cooper, Efstathios G. Charalampidis
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.15125 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2508.15125

Modeling pandemics
We review several models for pandemics that plagued the USA and the world in the past decade. Methods of data fitting are reviewed and several types of microscopic and rate equation models are discussed and numerically solved. This paper was written in March of 2021 and newer data is now available; however some of the models and techniques we used to numerically study these models are still of interest. Several appendices discuss in detail these models.

Pricing and hedging the prepayment option of mortgages under stochastic housing market activity
Leonardo Perotti, Lech A. Grzelak, Cornelis W. Oosterlee
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.08641

Pricing and hedging the prepayment option of mortgages under stochastic housing market activity
Prepayment risk embedded in fixed-rate mortgages forms a significant fraction of a financial institution's exposure. The embedded prepayment option bears the same interest rate risk as an exotic interest rate swap with a suitable stochastic notional. Focusing on penalty-free prepayment because of the contract owner's relocation to a new house, we model the prepayment option value as an European-type interest rate receiver swaption with stochastic maturity matching the stochastic time of relocat…

The Trump administration
has asked an appeals court to
remove Lisa Cook
from the Federal Reserve’s board of governors
by Monday,
before the central bank’s next vote
on interest rates.
The request represents an extraordinary effort
by the White House
to shape the board
before the Fed’s interest rate-setting committee
meets next Tuesday and Wednesday.
At the same time,
Senate Republicans
are pushing to confirm…

Trump administration requests emergency ruling to remove Cook from Fed board
The Trump administration has asked an appeals court to remove Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve’s board of governors by Monday, before the central bank’s next vote on interest rates. Trump sought to fire Cook Aug. 25, but a federal judge ruled late Tuesday that the removal was illegal and reinstated her to the Fed’s board.

Interpreting the Interpreter: Can We Model post-ECB Conferences Volatility with LLM Agents?
Umberto Collodel
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.13635 https://arxiv…

Interpreting the Interpreter: Can We Model post-ECB Conferences Volatility with LLM Agents?
This paper develops a novel method to simulate financial market reactions to European Central Bank (ECB) press conferences using a Large Language Model (LLM). We create a behavioral, agent-based simulation of 30 synthetic traders, each with distinct risk preferences, cognitive biases, and interpretive styles. These agents forecast Euro interest rate swap levels at 3-month, 2-year, and 10-year maturities, with the variation across forecasts serving as a measure of market uncertainty or disagreem…

Data driven modeling of multiple interest rates with generalized Vasicek-type models
Pauliina Ilmonen, Milla Laurikkala, Kostiantyn Ralchenko, Tommi Sottinen, Lauri Viitasaari
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.03208

Data driven modeling of multiple interest rates with generalized Vasicek-type models
The Vasicek model is a commonly used interest rate model, and there exist many extensions and generalizations of it. However, most generalizations of the model are either univariate or assume the noise process to be Gaussian, or both. In this article, we study a generalized multivariate Vasicek model that allows simultaneous modeling of multiple interest rates while making minimal assumptions. In the model, we only assume that the noise process has stationary increments with a suitably decaying…

The chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, has blamed Donald Trump’s tariffs for preventing the immediate interest rate cuts the president has demanded.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/j

Cryptocurrencies and Interest Rates: Inferring Yield Curves in a Bondless Market
Philippe Bergault, S\'ebastien Bieber, Olivier Gu\'eant, Wenkai Zhang
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.03964

Cryptocurrencies and Interest Rates: Inferring Yield Curves in a Bondless Market
In traditional financial markets, yield curves are widely available for countries (and, by extension, currencies), financial institutions, and large corporates. These curves are used to calibrate stochastic interest rate models, discount future cash flows, and price financial products. Yield curves, however, can be readily computed only because of the current size and structure of bond markets. In cryptocurrency markets, where fixed-rate lending and bonds are almost nonexistent as of early 2025…

Diffusion-based Multi-modal Synergy Interest Network for Click-through Rate Prediction
Xiaoxi Cui, Weihai Lu, Yu Tong, Yiheng Li, Zhejun Zhao
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.21460 ht…

Diffusion-based Multi-modal Synergy Interest Network for Click-through Rate Prediction
In click-through rate prediction, click-through rate prediction is used to model users' interests. However, most of the existing CTR prediction methods are mainly based on the ID modality. As a result, they are unable to comprehensively model users' multi-modal preferences. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce multi-modal CTR prediction. Although it seems appealing to directly apply the existing multi-modal fusion methods to click-through rate prediction models, these methods (1) fail to eff…

Efficient Deep Neural Receiver with Post-Training Quantization
SaiKrishna Saketh Yellapragada, Esa Ollila, Mario Costa
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.06275 https://

Efficient Deep Neural Receiver with Post-Training Quantization
Deep learning has recently garnered significant interest in wireless communications due to its superior performance compared to traditional model-based algorithms. Deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have demonstrated notable improvements in block error rate (BLER) under various channel models and mobility scenarios. However, the high computational complexity and resource demands of deep CNNs pose challenges for deployment in resource-constrained edge systems. The 3rd Generation Partnersh…

Ukraine's central bank holds key rate at 15.5%, lowers growth and inflation forecasts: https://benborges.xyz/2025/07/24/ukraines-central-bank-holds-key.html

Because firing the head of BLS for reporting bad numbers will cascade through the BLS, *ending* our capacity for trustworthy numbers. Lacking a commonly agreed-upon set of facts, markets will be more volatile and every loan will have a higher interest rate because of the uncertainty.
Inequity of information is terrible for markets. https://

Trump and Powell can't agree on numbers, and it's more than just interest rates (Katherine Li/Business Insider)
https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-jerome-powell-federal-reserve-renovation-interest-rate-inflation-2025-7
http://www.memeorandum.com/250724/p154#a250724p154

In-between Transatlantic (Monetary) Disturbances
Santiago Camara, Jeanne Aublin
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.13578 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.13578

In-between Transatlantic (Monetary) Disturbances
This paper studies the spillovers of European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate shocks into the Canadian economy and compares them with those of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). We combine a VAR model and local projection regressions with identification strategies that explicitly purge information effects around policy announcements. We find that an ECB rate hike leads to a depreciation of the Canadian dollar and a sharp contraction in economic activity. The main transmission channel is internati…

Bootstrapping Liquidity in BTC-Denominated Prediction Markets
Fedor Shabashev
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.11990 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.11990

Bootstrapping Liquidity in BTC-Denominated Prediction Markets
Prediction markets have gained adoption as on-chain mechanisms for aggregating information, with platforms such as Polymarket demonstrating demand for stablecoin-denominated markets. However, denominating in non-interest-bearing stablecoins introduces inefficiencies: participants face opportunity costs relative to the fiat risk-free rate, and Bitcoin holders in particular lose exposure to BTC appreciation when converting into stablecoins. This paper explores the case for prediction markets deno…

LMQ-Sketch: Lagom Multi-Query Sketch for High-Rate Online Analytics
Martin Hilgendorf, Marina Papatriantafilou
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.16928 https://

LMQ-Sketch: Lagom Multi-Query Sketch for High-Rate Online Analytics
Data sketches balance resource efficiency with controllable approximations for extracting features in high-volume, high-rate data. Two important points of interest are highlighted separately in recent works; namely, to (1) answer multiple types of queries from one pass, and (2) query concurrently with updates. Several fundamental challenges arise when integrating these directions, which we tackle in this work. We investigate the trade-offs to be balanced and synthesize key ideas into LMQ-Sketch…

Stochastic Analysis of Overlapping Generations Models Under Incomplete Markets
Cangxiong Chen, Sigmund Ellingsrud, Fabian Harang, Alfonso Irarrazabal, Avi Mayorcas
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.05170

Stochastic Analysis of Overlapping Generations Models Under Incomplete Markets
We provide a stochastic analysis of an overlapping-generations model under incomplete markets. By casting individual optimisation with idiosyncratic income risk into a forward-backward stochastic differential equation (FBSDE) system, we (i) establish existence and uniqueness of the dynamic general-equilibirum interest rate and (ii) derive semi-explicit formulas for both the equilibrium interest rate path and the natural borrowing limit - defined as the discounted expected shortfall of future in…

Free-floating Planets Produced by Planet-Planet Scatterings: Ejection Velocity and Survival Rate of Their Moons
Xiumin Huang, Dong Lai
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.18239 https://

Free-floating Planets Produced by Planet-Planet Scatterings: Ejection Velocity and Survival Rate of Their Moons
The discovery of numerous free-floating planets (FFPs) has intensified interest in their origins and dynamical histories. A leading formation mechanism is planet-planet scatterings in unstable multi-planetary systems, which can naturally lead to planetary ejections. If these planets originally host moons, it remains an open question whether such satellites can remain gravitationally bound to FFPs after ejection. In this work, we investigate both the ejection velocity of FFPs produced by planet-…

It will forever bug me that http://freerealestateforjim.biz was bought by some crypto bullshit firm

Nerite Protocol
$USDN – A flexible, Arbitrum-native stablecoin where you choose your interest rate. Immutable friendly-fork of Liquity V2, designed for flexibility and scalability.

It will forever bug me that http://freerealestateforjim.biz was bought by some crypto bullshit firm

Nerite Protocol
$USDN – A flexible, Arbitrum-native stablecoin where you choose your interest rate. Immutable friendly-fork of Liquity V2, designed for flexibility and scalability.

NanoCodec: Towards High-Quality Ultra Fast Speech LLM Inference
Edresson Casanova, Paarth Neekhara, Ryan Langman, Shehzeen Hussain, Subhankar Ghosh, Xuesong Yang, Ante Juki\'c, Jason Li, Boris Ginsburg
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.05835

NanoCodec: Towards High-Quality Ultra Fast Speech LLM Inference
Large Language Models (LLMs) have significantly advanced audio processing by leveraging audio codecs to discretize audio into tokens, enabling the application of language modeling techniques to speech data. However, existing audio codecs often operate at high frame rates, leading to slow training and inference, particularly for autoregressive models. To address this, there is growing interest in low frame-rate audio codecs, which reduce the number of autoregressive steps required to generate on…

Coverage and Rate Performance Analysis of Multi-RIS-Assisted Dual-Hop mmWave Networks
Yuwen Cao, Xiaowen Wu, Jiguang He, Tomoaki Ohtsuki, Tony Q. S. Quek
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.00717

Coverage and Rate Performance Analysis of Multi-RIS-Assisted Dual-Hop mmWave Networks
Millimeter-wave (mmWave) communication, which operates at high frequencies, has gained extensive research interest due to its significantly wide spectrum and short wavelengths. However, mmWave communication suffers from the notable drawbacks as follows: i) The mmWave signals are sensitive to the blockage, which is caused by the weak diffraction ability of mmWave propagation; ii) Even though the introduction of reconfigurable intelligent surfaces (RISs) can overcome the performance degradation c…

Explicit modified Euler approximations of the A\"{i}t-Sahalia type model with Poisson jumps
Yingsong Jiang, Ruishu Liu, Minhong Xu
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.23947

Explicit modified Euler approximations of the Aït-Sahalia type model with Poisson jumps
This paper focuses on mean-square approximations of a generalized Aït-Sahalia interest rate model with Poisson jumps. The main challenge in the construction and analysis of time-discrete numerical schemes is caused by a drift that blows up at the origin, highly nonlinear drift and diffusion coefficients and positivity-preserving requirement. Due to the presence of the Poisson jumps, additional difficulties arise in recovering the exact order $1/2$ of convergence for the time-stepping schemes. …

Deep Multiple Quantization Network on Long Behavior Sequence for Click-Through Rate Prediction
Zhuoxing Wei, Qi Liu, Qingchen Xie
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.20865 https://

Deep Multiple Quantization Network on Long Behavior Sequence for Click-Through Rate Prediction
In Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction, the long behavior sequence, comprising the user's long period of historical interactions with items has a vital influence on assessing the user's interest in the candidate item. Existing approaches strike efficiency and effectiveness through a two-stage paradigm: first retrieving hundreds of candidate-related items and then extracting interest intensity vector through target attention. However, we argue that the discrepancy in target attention's relevance…

Optimal mean-variance portfolio selection under regime-switching-induced stock price shocks
Xiaomin Shi, Zuo Quan Xu
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.19824 https://

Optimal mean-variance portfolio selection under regime-switching-induced stock price shocks
In this paper, we investigate mean-variance (MV) portfolio selection problems with jumps in a regime-switching financial model. The novelty of our approach lies in allowing not only the market parameters -- such as the interest rate, appreciation rate, volatility, and jump intensity -- to depend on the market regime, but also in permitting stock prices to experience jumps when the market regime switches, in addition to the usual micro-level jumps. This modeling choice is motivated by empirical …

What will our billionaire overlords get out of the “big, beautiful” budget reconciliation bill that narrowly cleared the Senate this week?
Higher interest rates, for one,
because the bill more than doubles the budget deficit;
this will benefit billionaire creditors but hurt billionaire borrowers.
The top marginal rate won’t rise from the present 37 percent to 39.6 percent, as it would have done in a Harris administration,
which is excellent news if you actual…

The Oligarchs’ Big Prize in Trump’s Budget-Busting Bill
Avoiding an income-tax increase is nice, but that’s not the bill’s greatest gift to the rich.

The Root Finding Problem Revisited: Beyond the Robbins-Monro procedure
Yue Yu, Moulinath Banerjee, Ya'acov Ritov
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.17591 https://

The Root Finding Problem Revisited: Beyond the Robbins-Monro procedure
We introduce Sequential Probability Ratio Bisection (SPRB), a novel stochastic approximation algorithm that adapts to the local behavior of the (regression) function of interest around its root. We establish theoretical guarantees for SPRB's asymptotic performance, showing that it achieves the optimal convergence rate and minimal asymptotic variance even when the target function's derivative at the root is small (at most half the step size), a regime where the classical Robbins-Monro procedure …

Rethinking Indonesia's Public Debt in the Era of Negative Interest Rate-Growth Differentials
Mervin Goklas Hamonangan
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.18092 https://

Rethinking Indonesia's Public Debt in the Era of Negative Interest Rate-Growth Differentials
This study contributes to the discussion about how higher public debt may not be costly because of the negative interest rate-growth differentials by simulating OLG models introduced by Blanchard (2019) under uncertainty, showing debt and welfare dynamics in two scenarios: intergenerational transfers and debt rollovers in the case of Indonesia. The simulation is done by modifying the model parameters based on interest rate-growth differentials historic data from 2004-2019. It is found that the …

DMGIN: How Multimodal LLMs Enhance Large Recommendation Models for Lifelong User Post-click Behaviors
Zhuoxing Wei, Qingchen Xie, Qi Liu
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.21801 https:/…

DMGIN: How Multimodal LLMs Enhance Large Recommendation Models for Lifelong User Post-click Behaviors
Modeling user interest based on lifelong user behavior sequences is crucial for enhancing Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction. However, long post-click behavior sequences themselves pose severe performance issues: the sheer volume of data leads to high computational costs and inefficiencies in model training and inference. Traditional methods address this by introducing two-stage approaches, but this compromises model effectiveness due to incomplete utilization of the full sequence context. Mor…

A note on a resampling procedure for estimating the density at a given quantile
Beatriz Farah (MAP5 - UMR 8145), Aur\'elien Latouche (CNAM Paris), Olivier Bouaziz (LPP, MAP5 - UMR 8145)
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.02207

A note on a resampling procedure for estimating the density at a given quantile
In this paper we refine the procedure proposed by Lin et al. (2015) to estimate the density at a given quantile based on a resampling method. The approach consists on generating multiple samples of the zero-mean Gaussian variable from which a least square estimator is constructed. The main advantage of the proposed method is that it provides an estimation directly at the quantile of interest, thus achieving the parametric rate of convergence. In this study, we investigate the critical role of t…