Tootfinder

Russian Central Bank cuts interest rate from 18% to 17%: https://benborges.xyz/2025/09/12/russian-central-bank-cuts-interest.html

The Trump administration
has asked an appeals court to
remove Lisa Cook
from the Federal Reserve’s board of governors
by Monday,
before the central bank’s next vote
on interest rates.
The request represents an extraordinary effort
by the White House
to shape the board
before the Fed’s interest rate-setting committee
meets next Tuesday and Wednesday.
At the same time,
Senate Republicans
are pushing to confirm…

Trump administration requests emergency ruling to remove Cook from Fed board
The Trump administration has asked an appeals court to remove Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve’s board of governors by Monday, before the central bank’s next vote on interest rates. Trump sought to fire Cook Aug. 25, but a federal judge ruled late Tuesday that the removal was illegal and reinstated her to the Fed’s board.

Efficient Deep Neural Receiver with Post-Training Quantization
SaiKrishna Saketh Yellapragada, Esa Ollila, Mario Costa
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.06275 https://

Efficient Deep Neural Receiver with Post-Training Quantization
Deep learning has recently garnered significant interest in wireless communications due to its superior performance compared to traditional model-based algorithms. Deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have demonstrated notable improvements in block error rate (BLER) under various channel models and mobility scenarios. However, the high computational complexity and resource demands of deep CNNs pose challenges for deployment in resource-constrained edge systems. The 3rd Generation Partnersh…

Measuring intrinsic relaxation rates in superconductors using nonlinear response
Wei-En Tseng, Rahul Nandkishore
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.07398 https://a…

Measuring intrinsic relaxation rates in superconductors using nonlinear response
We discuss intrinsic relaxation rates in superconductors, and how they may be measured using non-linear optical (terahertz) response. We consider both $s$ and $d$-wave superconductors, both with and without a phenomenological (energy dependent) damping. Intrinsic relaxation rates of interest include the Higgs mode decay rate, the quasiparticle redistribution rate ($1/T_1$) and the quasiparticle dephasing rate ($1/T_2$), where the latter two rates are zero in the pure BCS model, but non-zero in …

NanoCodec: Towards High-Quality Ultra Fast Speech LLM Inference
Edresson Casanova, Paarth Neekhara, Ryan Langman, Shehzeen Hussain, Subhankar Ghosh, Xuesong Yang, Ante Juki\'c, Jason Li, Boris Ginsburg
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.05835

NanoCodec: Towards High-Quality Ultra Fast Speech LLM Inference
Large Language Models (LLMs) have significantly advanced audio processing by leveraging audio codecs to discretize audio into tokens, enabling the application of language modeling techniques to speech data. However, existing audio codecs often operate at high frame rates, leading to slow training and inference, particularly for autoregressive models. To address this, there is growing interest in low frame-rate audio codecs, which reduce the number of autoregressive steps required to generate on…

Convergence in probability of numerical solutions of a highly non-linear delayed stochastic interest rate model
Emmanuel Coffie
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.04092 https://

Convergence in probability of numerical solutions of a highly non-linear delayed stochastic interest rate model
We examine a delayed stochastic interest rate model with super-linearly growing coefficients and develop several new mathematical tools to establish the properties of its true and truncated EM solutions. Moreover, we show that the true solution converges to the truncated EM solutions in probability as the step size tends to zero. Further, we support the convergence result with some illustrative numerical examples and justify the convergence result for the Monte Carlo evaluation of some financia…

"Gold thrives in a low interest rate environment and during economic uncertainty"
"Gold has climbed 51% so far this year"
But, "America is the hottest country in the world". 🙄
#gold #economy #USA

Short-rate models with stochastic discontinuities: a PDE approach
Alessandro Calvia, Marzia De Donno, Chiara Guardasoni, Simona Sanfelici
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.04289 https:…

Short-rate models with stochastic discontinuities: a PDE approach
With the reform of interest rate benchmarks, interbank offered rates (IBORs) like LIBOR have been replaced by risk-free rates (RFRs), such as the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) in the U.S. and the Euro Short-Term Rate (\euro STR) in Europe. These rates exhibit characteristics like jumps and spikes that correspond to specific market events, driven by regulatory and liquidity constraints. To capture these characteristics, this paper considers a general short-rate model that incorporates …

Diffusion-based Multi-modal Synergy Interest Network for Click-through Rate Prediction
Xiaoxi Cui, Weihai Lu, Yu Tong, Yiheng Li, Zhejun Zhao
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.21460 ht…

Diffusion-based Multi-modal Synergy Interest Network for Click-through Rate Prediction
In click-through rate prediction, click-through rate prediction is used to model users' interests. However, most of the existing CTR prediction methods are mainly based on the ID modality. As a result, they are unable to comprehensively model users' multi-modal preferences. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce multi-modal CTR prediction. Although it seems appealing to directly apply the existing multi-modal fusion methods to click-through rate prediction models, these methods (1) fail to eff…

A doubly composite Chernoff-Stein lemma and its applications
Ludovico Lami
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.06342 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2510.06342

A doubly composite Chernoff-Stein lemma and its applications
Given a sequence of random variables $X^n=X_1,\ldots, X_n$, discriminating between two hypotheses on the underlying probability distribution is a key task in statistics and information theory. Of interest here is the Stein exponent, i.e. the largest rate of decay (in $n$) of the type II error probability for a vanishingly small type I error probability. When the hypotheses are simple and i.i.d., the Chernoff-Stein lemma states that this is given by the relative entropy between the single-copy p…

Assessing the Effects of Monetary Shocks on Macroeconomic Stars: A SMUC-IV Framework
Bowen Fu, Chenghan Hou, Jan Pr\"user
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.05802 https://

Assessing the Effects of Monetary Shocks on Macroeconomic Stars: A SMUC-IV Framework
This paper proposes a structural multivariate unobserved components model with external instrument (SMUC-IV) to investigate the effects of monetary policy shocks on key U.S. macroeconomic "stars"-namely, the level of potential output, the growth rate of potential output, trend inflation, and the neutral interest rate. A key feature of our approach is the use of an external instrument to identify monetary policy shocks within the multivariate unob- served components modeling framework. We develo…

Trump and Powell can't agree on numbers, and it's more than just interest rates (Katherine Li/Business Insider)
https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-jerome-powell-federal-reserve-renovation-interest-rate-inflation-2025-7
http://www.memeorandum.com/250724/p154#a250724p154

Improving accuracy in short mortality rate series: Exploring Multi-step Forecasting Approaches in Hybrid Systems
Filipe C. L. Duarte, Paulo S. G. de Mattos Neto, Paulo R. A. Firmino
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.22395

Improving accuracy in short mortality rate series: Exploring Multi-step Forecasting Approaches in Hybrid Systems
The decline in interest rates and economic stabilization has heightened the importance of accurate mortality rate forecasting, particularly in insurance and pension markets. Multi-step-ahead predictions are crucial for public health, demographic planning, and insurance risk assessments; however, they face challenges when data are limited. Hybrid systems that combine statistical and Machine Learning (ML) models offer a promising solution for handling both linear and nonlinear patterns. This stud…

Cryptocurrencies and Interest Rates: Inferring Yield Curves in a Bondless Market
Philippe Bergault, S\'ebastien Bieber, Olivier Gu\'eant, Wenkai Zhang
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.03964

Cryptocurrencies and Interest Rates: Inferring Yield Curves in a Bondless Market
In traditional financial markets, yield curves are widely available for countries (and, by extension, currencies), financial institutions, and large corporates. These curves are used to calibrate stochastic interest rate models, discount future cash flows, and price financial products. Yield curves, however, can be readily computed only because of the current size and structure of bond markets. In cryptocurrency markets, where fixed-rate lending and bonds are almost nonexistent as of early 2025…

Viscosity and dynamic surface tension measurement: A guideline for appropriate measurement
Vivek Kumar, JSM Quintero, Aleksey Baldygin, Paul Molina, Thomas Willers, Prashant R. Waghmare
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.05481

Viscosity and dynamic surface tension measurement: A guideline for appropriate measurement
Dynamic surface tension measurements play a critical role in interfacial activities for liquids with varying viscosities. Understanding the rate at which the interface attains the equilibrium, for surface tension measurements, after the formation of a new interface is of significant interest. Although surface tension is independent of viscosity, the time required for a new surface to form (equilibrium/relaxation time) is influenced by viscosity. The measured surface tension value is accurate on…

Stochastic Analysis of Overlapping Generations Models Under Incomplete Markets
Cangxiong Chen, Sigmund Ellingsrud, Fabian Harang, Alfonso Irarrazabal, Avi Mayorcas
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.05170

Stochastic Analysis of Overlapping Generations Models Under Incomplete Markets
We provide a stochastic analysis of an overlapping-generations model under incomplete markets. By casting individual optimisation with idiosyncratic income risk into a forward-backward stochastic differential equation (FBSDE) system, we (i) establish existence and uniqueness of the dynamic general-equilibirum interest rate and (ii) derive semi-explicit formulas for both the equilibrium interest rate path and the natural borrowing limit - defined as the discounted expected shortfall of future in…

Because firing the head of BLS for reporting bad numbers will cascade through the BLS, *ending* our capacity for trustworthy numbers. Lacking a commonly agreed-upon set of facts, markets will be more volatile and every loan will have a higher interest rate because of the uncertainty.
Inequity of information is terrible for markets. https://

Graph Learning for Foreign Exchange Rate Prediction and Statistical Arbitrage
Yoonsik Hong, Diego Klabjan
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.14784 https://arxiv.or…

Graph Learning for Foreign Exchange Rate Prediction and Statistical Arbitrage
We propose a two-step graph learning approach for foreign exchange statistical arbitrages (FXSAs), addressing two key gaps in prior studies: the absence of graph-learning methods for foreign exchange rate prediction (FXRP) that leverage multi-currency and currency-interest rate relationships, and the disregard of the time lag between price observation and trade execution. In the first step, to capture complex multi-currency and currency-interest rate relationships, we formulate FXRP as an edge-…

Rethinking Indonesia's Public Debt in the Era of Negative Interest Rate-Growth Differentials
Mervin Goklas Hamonangan
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.18092 https://

Rethinking Indonesia's Public Debt in the Era of Negative Interest Rate-Growth Differentials
This study contributes to the discussion about how higher public debt may not be costly because of the negative interest rate-growth differentials by simulating OLG models introduced by Blanchard (2019) under uncertainty, showing debt and welfare dynamics in two scenarios: intergenerational transfers and debt rollovers in the case of Indonesia. The simulation is done by modifying the model parameters based on interest rate-growth differentials historic data from 2004-2019. It is found that the …

Ukraine's central bank holds key rate at 15.5%, lowers growth and inflation forecasts: https://benborges.xyz/2025/07/24/ukraines-central-bank-holds-key.html

Data driven modeling of multiple interest rates with generalized Vasicek-type models
Pauliina Ilmonen, Milla Laurikkala, Kostiantyn Ralchenko, Tommi Sottinen, Lauri Viitasaari
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.03208

Data driven modeling of multiple interest rates with generalized Vasicek-type models
The Vasicek model is a commonly used interest rate model, and there exist many extensions and generalizations of it. However, most generalizations of the model are either univariate or assume the noise process to be Gaussian, or both. In this article, we study a generalized multivariate Vasicek model that allows simultaneous modeling of multiple interest rates while making minimal assumptions. In the model, we only assume that the noise process has stationary increments with a suitably decaying…

The challenging first direct measurement of the 65 keV resonance strength in the $^{17}$O(p,$\gamma$)$^{18}$F reaction at LUNA
D. Piatti, LUNA Collaboration
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.04597

The challenging first direct measurement of the 65 keV resonance strength in the $^{17}$O(p,$γ$)$^{18}$F reaction at LUNA
A precise determination of the proton capture rates on oxygen is mandatory to predict the abundance ratios of oxygen isotopes in a stellar environment where the hydrogen burning is active. The 17O(p,γ)18F reaction, in particular, plays a crucial role in AGB nucleosynthesis as well as in explosive hydrogen burning occurring in novae and type I supernovae. At the temperature of interest for the former scenario (from 20 MK to 80 MK) the main contribution to the astrophysical reaction rate comes f…

Adaptive User Interest Modeling via Conditioned Denoising Diffusion For Click-Through Rate Prediction
Qihang Zhao, Xiaoyang Zheng, Ben Chen, Zhongbo Sun, Chenyi Lei
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.19876

Adaptive User Interest Modeling via Conditioned Denoising Diffusion For Click-Through Rate Prediction
User behavior sequences in search systems resemble "interest fossils", capturing genuine intent yet eroded by exposure bias, category drift, and contextual noise. Current methods predominantly follow an "identify-aggregate" paradigm, assuming sequences immutably reflect user preferences while overlooking the organic entanglement of noise and genuine interest. Moreover, they output static, context-agnostic representations, failing to adapt to dynamic intent shifts under varying Query-User-Item-C…

Coverage and Rate Performance Analysis of Multi-RIS-Assisted Dual-Hop mmWave Networks
Yuwen Cao, Xiaowen Wu, Jiguang He, Tomoaki Ohtsuki, Tony Q. S. Quek
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.00717

Coverage and Rate Performance Analysis of Multi-RIS-Assisted Dual-Hop mmWave Networks
Millimeter-wave (mmWave) communication, which operates at high frequencies, has gained extensive research interest due to its significantly wide spectrum and short wavelengths. However, mmWave communication suffers from the notable drawbacks as follows: i) The mmWave signals are sensitive to the blockage, which is caused by the weak diffraction ability of mmWave propagation; ii) Even though the introduction of reconfigurable intelligent surfaces (RISs) can overcome the performance degradation c…

Free-floating Planets Produced by Planet-Planet Scatterings: Ejection Velocity and Survival Rate of Their Moons
Xiumin Huang, Dong Lai
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.18239 https://

Free-floating Planets Produced by Planet-Planet Scatterings: Ejection Velocity and Survival Rate of Their Moons
The discovery of numerous free-floating planets (FFPs) has intensified interest in their origins and dynamical histories. A leading formation mechanism is planet-planet scatterings in unstable multi-planetary systems, which can naturally lead to planetary ejections. If these planets originally host moons, it remains an open question whether such satellites can remain gravitationally bound to FFPs after ejection. In this work, we investigate both the ejection velocity of FFPs produced by planet-…

It will forever bug me that http://freerealestateforjim.biz was bought by some crypto bullshit firm

Nerite Protocol
$USDN – A flexible, Arbitrum-native stablecoin where you choose your interest rate. Immutable friendly-fork of Liquity V2, designed for flexibility and scalability.

It will forever bug me that http://freerealestateforjim.biz was bought by some crypto bullshit firm

Nerite Protocol
$USDN – A flexible, Arbitrum-native stablecoin where you choose your interest rate. Immutable friendly-fork of Liquity V2, designed for flexibility and scalability.

Appeals court blocks Trump from removing Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve board before interest rate meeting (Steve Kopack/NBC News)
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/appeals-court-blocks-trump-removing-lisa-cook-federal-reserve-interest-rcna231524
http://www.memeorandum.com/250915/p151#a250915p151

Rational Bubbles on Dividend-Paying Assets: A Comment on Tirole (1985)
Ngoc-Sang Pham, Alexis Akira Toda
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.12477 https://

Rational Bubbles on Dividend-Paying Assets: A Comment on Tirole (1985)
Tirole (1985) studied an overlapping generations model with capital accumulation and showed that the emergence of asset bubbles solves the capital over-accumulation problem. His Proposition 1(c) claims that if the dividend growth rate is above the bubbleless interest rate (the steady-state interest rate in the Diamond economy without bubbles) but below the population growth rate, then bubbles are necessary in the sense that there exists no bubbleless equilibrium but there exists a unique bubbly…

Pricing and hedging the prepayment option of mortgages under stochastic housing market activity
Leonardo Perotti, Lech A. Grzelak, Cornelis W. Oosterlee
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.08641

Pricing and hedging the prepayment option of mortgages under stochastic housing market activity
Prepayment risk embedded in fixed-rate mortgages forms a significant fraction of a financial institution's exposure. The embedded prepayment option bears the same interest rate risk as an exotic interest rate swap with a suitable stochastic notional. Focusing on penalty-free prepayment because of the contract owner's relocation to a new house, we model the prepayment option value as an European-type interest rate receiver swaption with stochastic maturity matching the stochastic time of relocat…

Deep Multiple Quantization Network on Long Behavior Sequence for Click-Through Rate Prediction
Zhuoxing Wei, Qi Liu, Qingchen Xie
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.20865 https://

Deep Multiple Quantization Network on Long Behavior Sequence for Click-Through Rate Prediction
In Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction, the long behavior sequence, comprising the user's long period of historical interactions with items has a vital influence on assessing the user's interest in the candidate item. Existing approaches strike efficiency and effectiveness through a two-stage paradigm: first retrieving hundreds of candidate-related items and then extracting interest intensity vector through target attention. However, we argue that the discrepancy in target attention's relevance…

Optimal mean-variance portfolio selection under regime-switching-induced stock price shocks
Xiaomin Shi, Zuo Quan Xu
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.19824 https://

Optimal mean-variance portfolio selection under regime-switching-induced stock price shocks
In this paper, we investigate mean-variance (MV) portfolio selection problems with jumps in a regime-switching financial model. The novelty of our approach lies in allowing not only the market parameters -- such as the interest rate, appreciation rate, volatility, and jump intensity -- to depend on the market regime, but also in permitting stock prices to experience jumps when the market regime switches, in addition to the usual micro-level jumps. This modeling choice is motivated by empirical …

Baseline-Aware Dependence fitting for DAmping Timescales (BADDAT): A Nearly Unbiased Approach to Constraining Optical Variability Dependence on Physical Properties of Active Galactic Nuclei
Ruisong Xia, Zhen-Yi Cai, Yongquan Xue, Xian-Liang Lu, Guowei Ren, Shuying Zhou, Mouyuan Sun, Shifu Zhu, Zhen-Bo Su, Hao Liu
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509…

Baseline-Aware Dependence fitting for DAmping Timescales (BADDAT): A Nearly Unbiased Approach to Constraining Optical Variability Dependence on Physical Properties of Active Galactic Nuclei
Active galactic nuclei (AGNs) exhibit stochastic optical variability, commonly characterized by a damped random walk. The damping timescale is of particular interest because it is related to fundamental properties of the central black hole, such as its mass and accretion rate. However, the systematic underestimation of damping timescales caused by limited observational baselines makes it difficult to exhaustively utilize all available data. Many previous efforts have relied on strict selection …

Rough SABR Forward Market Model
Reo Adachi, Masaaki Fukasawa, Naoki Iida, Mitsumasa Ikeda, Yo Nakatsu, Ryota Tsurumi, Tomohisa Yamakami
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.25975 https://…

Rough SABR Forward Market Model
This paper advances interest rate modeling in the post-LIBOR era by introducing rough stochastic volatility into the Forward Market Model (FMM). We establish a rigorous asymptotic expansion of swaption implied volatility, connecting the FMM to a rough Bergomi-type framework for forward swap rates. This contribution bridges the gap between Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM)-consistent forward term rate models and forward swap rate models with stochastic volatility, offering a parsimonious yet precise fra…

I thought this #Guardian / #WaPo piece by some Peter Brennan might be worth a glance, though expecting only 60% stuff everyone knows (or should know), and 40% tedious irrelevant human interest guff. Which just proves that you can never set one's expectations low enough.
Well, I made it as …

Decay of a scalar condensate in two different approaches
Ayuki Kamada, Kodai Sakurai
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.18995 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.18995

Decay of a scalar condensate in two different approaches
Decay of a scalar condensate via interactions with (quasi-)particles is of interest to many fields in physics, including cosmology. In cosmology, the decay of an inflaton condensate leads to the production of daughter particles and reheating of the Universe. In computing the decay rate, two quantum field theoretic approaches can be found in the literature: one is based on parametric resonance of mode functions of the daughter particle; another is based on the $S$-matrix of a coherent state and …

The Root Finding Problem Revisited: Beyond the Robbins-Monro procedure
Yue Yu, Moulinath Banerjee, Ya'acov Ritov
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.17591 https://

The Root Finding Problem Revisited: Beyond the Robbins-Monro procedure
We introduce Sequential Probability Ratio Bisection (SPRB), a novel stochastic approximation algorithm that adapts to the local behavior of the (regression) function of interest around its root. We establish theoretical guarantees for SPRB's asymptotic performance, showing that it achieves the optimal convergence rate and minimal asymptotic variance even when the target function's derivative at the root is small (at most half the step size), a regime where the classical Robbins-Monro procedure …

Negative charge acquisition by isolated single microdroplets from plasma exposure at atmospheric pressure
Nourhan Hendawy, Harold McQuaid, Somhairle Mag Uidhir, David Rutherford, Declan Diver, Davide Mariotti, Paul Maguire
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.17379

Negative charge acquisition by isolated single microdroplets from plasma exposure at atmospheric pressure
Charged liquid microdroplets have generated significant interest recently due to the observation of chemical reaction rate enhancement by orders of magnitude. Droplet charging by plasma irradiation has been observed along with significantly enhanced reactions in liquid. In this paper we measure the charge on fixed size (47 $μ$m) individual droplets, exposed for approximately 4 ms to a low temperature RF-driven plasma operated at atmospheric pressure. The measured charge values (0.8--2.0 $\time…

Demand, and consumer surplus in the payday-loan market: Evidence from British Columbia
Tim Zhang, Amity Quinn
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.15247 https://arxi…

Demand, and consumer surplus in the payday-loan market: Evidence from British Columbia
This study examines how interest rate caps affect the demand for payday loans, using aggregate data from British Columbia (2012--2019) during which the province's maximum fee was reduced from \$23 to \$17 and then to \$15 per \$100 borrowed. Estimating a linear demand function via OLS, we find that lowering interest rate caps significantly increases loan demand. We estimate that the \$8 decrease, from \$23 to \$15 per \$100, raised annual consumer surplus by roughly \$28.6 million (2012 CAD). A…

Integrated Sensing and Communication for Vehicular Networks: A Rate-Distortion Fundamental Limits of State Estimator
Lugaoze Feng, Guocheng Lv, Xunan Li, Ye Jin
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.15025

Integrated Sensing and Communication for Vehicular Networks: A Rate-Distortion Fundamental Limits of State Estimator
The state-dependent memoryless channel (SDMC) is employed to model the integrated sensing and communication (ISAC) system for connected vehicular networks, where the transmitter conveys messages to the receiver while simultaneously estimating the state parameter of interest via the received echo signals. However, the performance of sensing has often been neglected in existing works. To address this gap, we establish the rate-distortion function for sensing performance in the SDMC model, which i…

A note on a resampling procedure for estimating the density at a given quantile
Beatriz Farah (MAP5 - UMR 8145), Aur\'elien Latouche (CNAM Paris), Olivier Bouaziz (LPP, MAP5 - UMR 8145)
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.02207

A note on a resampling procedure for estimating the density at a given quantile
In this paper we refine the procedure proposed by Lin et al. (2015) to estimate the density at a given quantile based on a resampling method. The approach consists on generating multiple samples of the zero-mean Gaussian variable from which a least square estimator is constructed. The main advantage of the proposed method is that it provides an estimation directly at the quantile of interest, thus achieving the parametric rate of convergence. In this study, we investigate the critical role of t…

DMGIN: How Multimodal LLMs Enhance Large Recommendation Models for Lifelong User Post-click Behaviors
Zhuoxing Wei, Qingchen Xie, Qi Liu
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.21801 https:/…

DMGIN: How Multimodal LLMs Enhance Large Recommendation Models for Lifelong User Post-click Behaviors
Modeling user interest based on lifelong user behavior sequences is crucial for enhancing Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction. However, long post-click behavior sequences themselves pose severe performance issues: the sheer volume of data leads to high computational costs and inefficiencies in model training and inference. Traditional methods address this by introducing two-stage approaches, but this compromises model effectiveness due to incomplete utilization of the full sequence context. Mor…

Extropy Rate: Properties and Application in Feature Selection
Naveen Kumar, Vivek Vijay
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.11242 https://arxi…

Extropy Rate: Properties and Application in Feature Selection
Extropy, a complementary dual of entropy, (proposed by Lad et al. \cite{lad2015extropy} in 2015) has attracted considerable interest from the research community. In this study, we focus on discrete random variables and define conditional extropy, establishing key properties of joint and conditional extropy such as bounds, uncertainty reduction due to additional information, and Lipschitz continuity. We further introduce the concept of extropy rate for a stochastic process of discrete random var…

Discrete time risk models with m-dependent random variables
Nguyen Huy Hoang, Tran Dinh Phung
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.14662 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2508.1…

Discrete time risk models with m-dependent random variables
The main purpose of the paper is to study ruin probabilities in two discrete time risk models under rates of interest, where the premiums and claims are two independent sequences of m-dependent random variables, and the rate of interest is a sequence of identically distributed random variables. Our results extend the corresponding ones for independent random sequences.

Bootstrapping Liquidity in BTC-Denominated Prediction Markets
Fedor Shabashev
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.11990 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.11990

Bootstrapping Liquidity in BTC-Denominated Prediction Markets
Prediction markets have gained adoption as on-chain mechanisms for aggregating information, with platforms such as Polymarket demonstrating demand for stablecoin-denominated markets. However, denominating in non-interest-bearing stablecoins introduces inefficiencies: participants face opportunity costs relative to the fiat risk-free rate, and Bitcoin holders in particular lose exposure to BTC appreciation when converting into stablecoins. This paper explores the case for prediction markets deno…

Modeling Long-term User Behaviors with Diffusion-driven Multi-interest Network for CTR Prediction
Weijiang Lai, Beihong Jin, Yapeng Zhang, Yiyuan Zheng, Rui Zhao, Jian Dong, Jun Lei, Xingxing Wang
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.15311

Modeling Long-term User Behaviors with Diffusion-driven Multi-interest Network for CTR Prediction
CTR (Click-Through Rate) prediction, crucial for recommender systems and online advertising, etc., has been confirmed to benefit from modeling long-term user behaviors. Nonetheless, the vast number of behaviors and complexity of noise interference pose challenges to prediction efficiency and effectiveness. Recent solutions have evolved from single-stage models to two-stage models. However, current two-stage models often filter out significant information, resulting in an inability to capture di…

In-between Transatlantic (Monetary) Disturbances
Santiago Camara, Jeanne Aublin
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.13578 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.13578

In-between Transatlantic (Monetary) Disturbances
This paper studies the spillovers of European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate shocks into the Canadian economy and compares them with those of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). We combine a VAR model and local projection regressions with identification strategies that explicitly purge information effects around policy announcements. We find that an ECB rate hike leads to a depreciation of the Canadian dollar and a sharp contraction in economic activity. The main transmission channel is internati…

Modeling pandemics
John F. Dawson, Fred Cooper, Efstathios G. Charalampidis
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.15125 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2508.15125

Modeling pandemics
We review several models for pandemics that plagued the USA and the world in the past decade. Methods of data fitting are reviewed and several types of microscopic and rate equation models are discussed and numerically solved. This paper was written in March of 2021 and newer data is now available; however some of the models and techniques we used to numerically study these models are still of interest. Several appendices discuss in detail these models.

Interpreting the Interpreter: Can We Model post-ECB Conferences Volatility with LLM Agents?
Umberto Collodel
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.13635 https://arxiv…

Interpreting the Interpreter: Can We Model post-ECB Conferences Volatility with LLM Agents?
This paper develops a novel method to simulate financial market reactions to European Central Bank (ECB) press conferences using a Large Language Model (LLM). We create a behavioral, agent-based simulation of 30 synthetic traders, each with distinct risk preferences, cognitive biases, and interpretive styles. These agents forecast Euro interest rate swap levels at 3-month, 2-year, and 10-year maturities, with the variation across forecasts serving as a measure of market uncertainty or disagreem…