Tootfinder

The full formula for the probability of "success" is:
p = {
1/(2^(-n 1)) if n is negative, or
1 - (1/(2^(n 1))) if n is zero or positive
}
(Both branches have the same value when n is 0, so the behavior is smooth around the origin.)
How can we tweak this?
First, we can introduce fixed success and/or failure chances unaffected by level, with this formula only taking effect if those don't apply. For example, you could do 10% failure, 80% by formula, and 10% success to keep things from being too sure either way even when levels are very high or low. On the other hand, this flattening makes the benefit of extra advantage levels even less exciting.
Second, we could allow for gradations of success/failure, and treat the coin pools I used to explain that math like dice pools a bit. An in-between could require linearly more success flips to achieve the next higher grade of success at each grade. For example, simple success on a crit role might mean dealing 1.5x damage, but if you succeed on 2 of your flips, you get 9/4 damage, or on 4 flips 27/8, or on 7 flips 81/16. In this world, stacking crit levels might be a viable build, and just giving up on armor would be super dangerous. In the particular case I was using this for just now, I can't easily do gradations of success (that's the reason I turned to probabilities in the first place) but I think I'd favor this approach when feasible.
The main innovation here over simple dice pools is how to handle situations where the number of dice should be negative. I'm almost certain it's not a truly novel innovation though, and some RPG fan can point out which system already does this (please actually do this, I'm an RPG nerd too at heart).
I'll leave this with one more tweak we could do: what if the number 2 in the probability equation were 3, or 2/3? I think this has a similar effect to just scaling all the modifiers a bit, but the algebra escapes me in this moment and I'm a bit lazy. In any case, reducing the base of the probability exponent should let you get a few more gradations near 50%, which is probably a good thing, since the default goes from 25% straight to 50% and then to 75% with no integer stops in between.

I believe I have managed to prove my ID in order to comply with the new laws that say I have to prove my ID to own the business I own that I'm sure already asked me to prove my ID when I registered it.
First we tried the on-web version, but that apparently relies upon the corporates having managed to profile and track me, because it told me they had no questions upon which to base identification. Good I guess? My avoid-tracking systems must be working at least a bit?
Next we tried the android app, but apparently the phone I tried that with is too old and the app won't install.
So next option is turning up at a post office with a printed letter. I don't own a printer though, so had to have them post that to me.
Took the letter and a driving licence up to the post office today and "It's not going through" they said, pointing to a stalled progress bar on an android app on a tablet.
Um. Okay. So?
Just wait longer apparently. About ten minutes and it finally proceeded and the post office man took a photograph of me after asking me to disrobe of my robe, strip down to a teeshirt and jeans.
Not sure in what sense this has proven my ID any more than it was already proven to get the driving licence or company registration in the first place?
Apparently I now have government logins for "One Login" and for "government gateway" and they are not the same thing? But sort of are the same thing?
Can't say I really understand it. Expect they'll introduce a third government login when they do these Digital ID cards they're talking about.
God knows how I'm supposed to know which to use when the company tax records need updating in a few months.
#id #government #oneLogin

with the bar for safe bike infrastructure as low as it is, it's hard to strike the right balance after a project between "hooray! it's so much better!" and "this, that, and the other thing still suck."
Streetsblog SF often errs on the latter side... I'm happier than ever with #ValenciaStreet, but their critiques are not wrong.

SFMTA Leaves Valencia Bike Lanes Unfinished - Streetsblog San Francisco
The center-running lane is long gone and some finishing touches are coming to the parking-protected section from 15th to 23rd, but the lack of concrete infrastructure remains problematic. And then there's the last four blocks from 23rd to Cesar Chavez, which is still just a striped lane wedged between parked cars and moving traffic.

Welcome to "rowhome"!
As usual, you can count on real estate marketers to signal status shifts.
"Townhome," invented because "rowhouse" felt low-class, now feels low-class itself.
I think they would have done better to just say "rowhouse" and invoke the prestige of historic preservation.

Check out some renderings for Woodley Park’s Wardman Park!! (the former Marriott Wardman) - PoPville
Renderings are courtesy Wardman Park From a press release: "Carmel Partners announced today the start of pre-leasing for Aerie, the first residential tower to open at Wardman Park, a reimagined, 9.5-acre landmark property now home to a resort-style residential oasis. Set atop one of the city’s highest elevations in Woodley Park, Wardman Park is defined

Do everything you can to protest tomorrow.
If you can't, flood the socials with NOKINGS because the media, petrified of angering Emperor Trump, is going to downplay & minimize the protests to "tell both sides".
#Protests #NoKings

Engineering teams often get stuck striving for perfection, not out of laziness, but due to an insatiable desire to improve. Join Tim Schmolka next week at Berlin Buzzwords to discover how teams can overcome perfectionism. He will discuss the significance of setting clear boundaries, balancing quality with timely delivery, and focusing on what truly matters.
Learn more:

The Perfection Trap
Many engineering teams face a common struggle: the desire to deliver perfect solutions can delay projects and limit business impact. This session explores how the familiar Parkinson’s Law is often misunderstood in engineering contexts. Instead of laziness, it’s excessive craftsmanship and relentless perfectionism that extend timelines. Through real-world examples and practical insights, you’ll learn about the “perfection pressure spectrum,” which helps diagnose whether your team is st…

Series A, Episode 10 - Breakdown
BLAKE: We'll just have to take the chance.
JENNA: Thanks.
https://blake.torpidity.net/m/110/431 B7B5

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Of all the many crimes against the English language committed by people from the USA, I think the only one which I'd make a capital offence is that of refusing to pronounce the "L" in "soldering".

The Trump regime's coordinated repression did not come from nowhere.
In 2024, TheNew York Times reported that the Trump transition team was already planning to use emergency powers, such as the one Trump invoked on June 7,
to confront political opponents who protest the administration.
While the Trump administration planned this move for about a year,
the deployment of troops in Los Angeles is the brutal culmination of a yearslong campaign to systematically erod…

Military Crackdown on LA Protests Portends Further Erosion of Everyone’s Rights
Governments at all levels from both parties have paved the way to an authoritarian response to dissent.

Numbers Don't Lie: Dallas Cowboys offense poised to explode in 2025 https://insidethestar.com/numbers-dont-lie-dallas-cowboys-offense-poised-to-explode-in-2025