Tootfinder

Q1’s –0.5% growth is already a bad look. But Apollo’s Torsten SlŸk points out that data-center construction alone added about a full percentage point. Remove it, and you’re staring at –1.5%.
Q2 looks so much healthier at 3.0%, or you would think so. Pantheon Macroeconomics sums up the first half of 2025 with some more sobriety: AI alone contributed about half a percentage point of GDP. Without it, the U.S. would be bumbling along at 1% growth. Still better than minus, but thin grass all the same.
One more stat for the better view: since 2019, investment in AI-sensitive sectors is up 53%, while everywhere else is basically flat – 0.3%.
https://www.turingpost.com/p/fod114?_bhlid=f437d028caabcb66cc36e677728d12aea2504a71

Mitigating Model Drift in Developing Economies Using Synthetic Data and Outliers
Ilyas Varshavskiy, Bonu Boboeva, Shuhrat Khalilbekov, Azizjon Azimi, Sergey Shulgin, Akhlitdin Nizamitdinov, Haitz Saez de Ocariz Borde
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.09294

Mitigating Model Drift in Developing Economies Using Synthetic Data and Outliers
Machine Learning models in finance are highly susceptible to model drift, where predictive performance declines as data distributions shift. This issue is especially acute in developing economies such as those in Central Asia and the Caucasus - including Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan - where frequent and unpredictable macroeconomics shocks destabilize financial data. To the best of our knowledge, this is among the first studies to examine drift mitigation methods on financi…

Causal mechanism and mediation analysis for macroeconomics dynamics: a bridge of Granger and Sims causality
Jean-Marie Dufour, Endong Wang
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.05284 https…

Causal mechanism and mediation analysis for macroeconomics dynamics: a bridge of Granger and Sims causality
This paper introduces a novel concept of impulse response decomposition to disentangle the dynamic contributions of the mediator variables in the transmission of structural shocks. We justify our decomposition by drawing on causal mediation analysis and demonstrating its equivalence to the average mediation effect. Our result establishes a formal link between Sims and Granger causality. Sims causality captures the total effect, while Granger causality corresponds to the mediation effect. We con…

A semi-Lagrangian method for solving state constraint Mean Field Games in Macroeconomics
Fabio Camilli, Qing Tang, Yong-shen Zhou
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.00768 https://

A semi-Lagrangian method for solving state constraint Mean Field Games in Macroeconomics
We study continuous-time heterogeneous agent models cast as Mean Field Games, in the Aiyagari-Bewley-Huggett framework. The model couples a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation for individual optimization with a Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation for the wealth distribution. We establish a comparison principle for constrained viscosity solutions of the HJB equation and propose a semi-Lagrangian (SL) scheme for its numerical solution, proving convergence via the Barles-Souganidis method. A policy ite…

The Trouble with Rational Expectations in Heterogeneous Agent Models: A Challenge for Macroeconomics
Benjamin Moll
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.20571 https://

The Trouble with Rational Expectations in Heterogeneous Agent Models: A Challenge for Macroeconomics
The thesis of this essay is that, in heterogeneous agent macroeconomics, the assumption of rational expectations about equilibrium prices is unrealistic and should be replaced. Rational expectations imply that decision makers forecast equilibrium prices like interest rates by forecasting cross-sectional distributions. This leads to an extreme version of the curse of dimensionality: dynamic programming problems in which the entire distribution is a state variable ("Master equation" a.k.a. "Monst…