Tootfinder

A Simulation Methodology Testbed for Typhoon Sensitivity Analysis: Framework Development and Perturbation-Response Experiments with the Pangu Weather Model
Yuehua Peng, Yuchen Zhang, Qin Huang, Chengzhi Ye, Jingsong Yang
https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.21864 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2605.21864 https://arxiv.org/html/2605.21864
arXiv:2605.21864v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Understanding how typhoons respond to localized perturbations in their environmental fields is fundamental to assessing the limits of predictability and exploring the potential for track or intensity intervention. This study develops a dedicated simulation methodology testbed for typhoon sensitivity analysis by integrating the Pangu weather model, a high-precision AI forecasting system, with Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) closed-loop techniques. The testbed is constructed with modular functional blocks including a meteorological prediction module, an artificial perturbation input interface, a typhoon quantitative modeling module, and a PID closed-loop test module, implemented via a cross-platform MATLAB/ONNX technical framework. A Single-Input Single-Output (SISO) test system was built, with velocity and thermal perturbations set as the core inputs and typhoon track and intensity as the key output targets, to perform controlled perturbation-response experiments. The experiments reveal the feasible perturbation-response range, the parameter tuning behavior of the PID module, and the energy-scale response characteristics under different perturbation modes, and quantify the input-output coupling relationships of the test system. By constructing this testbed on an operational AI weather forecasting model, this study provides a framework that goes beyond idealized sensitivity studies typically validated only on low-order dynamical models. The testbed offers an expandable platform for investigating typhoon sensitivity to artificial environmental perturbations and provides a foundation for subsequent expansion toward multi-input multi-output architectures and advanced analysis strategies such as nonlinear PID or model predictive control.
toXiv_bot_toot

NFL sees Wednesday play as 'only good' for fans https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/48779217/nfl-says-following-fan-interest-midweek-games

Interessante Begründung, O-Ton im Rendez-vous am Mittag gerade eben: "Weil der Bundesrat keinen Finger rührt, dürfen die Kantone in ihrer Gesetzgebung weitergehen."
Ob sich das auch andere Bereiche anwenden liesse, wenn der BR mal wieder die Arbeit verweigert. 🤔
Bundesgerichtsurteil:
Kanton Wallis darf Einweg-E-Zigaretten verbieten

Bundesgerichtsurteil: Kanton Wallis darf Einweg-Vapes verbieten
Das Bundesgericht weist die Beschwerden gegen das im Kanton Wallis geltende Verkaufsverbot von Einweg-E-Zigaretten ab.

“McConnell says
‘I didn’t have a heart attack or a stroke.’
But nowhere in the letter does he address the cardiac arrest,” Journalist Ken Klippenstein wrote.
“Swapping out ‘cardiac arrest’ for ‘heart attack’ is a clever move because most people use the two terms interchangeably.
They are not.”
Klippenstein went on to argue that McConnell's statement was a
"masterclass in political manipulation"
– technically accurate in denying he'd…

Major detail flagged in McConnell’s ‘proof-of-life’ update: ‘Masterclass in manipulation’
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) finally broke his roughly month-long silence this week regarding his state of health, though one journalist flagged what they said was a revealing detail in the Kentucky Republican’s statement.McConnell was hospitalized on June 14, though his office initially disclosed fe...

One more photo from my recent blog post ( https://www.franzgraf.de/blog/2026/caves-and-meadows-day-1-in-the-frankische-schweiz/ ). This one is from a cave that colapsed long ago and left this impressive structure.
And believe me, the green was…

«Gemini statt Suchergebnisse — Googles KI-Strategie könnte das freie Internet zerstören:
Nach KI-Übersichten und KI-Modus will die Tech-Firma ihre Kernfunktion auf lange Sicht immer mehr an große Sprachmodelle übergeben. Unser Autor hält das für eine schlechte Idee und eine Gefahr für Googles Geschäftsmodell.»
…und nein, ich verstehe es immer weniger weshalb viele Googel heutzutage noch nutzen.
🕵️

Gemini statt Suchergebnisse: Googles KI-Strategie könnte das freie Internet zerstören
Google setzt mit Gemini voll auf KI-Suche. Doch der Umbau der Suchmaschine birgt massive Risiken für das Geschäftsmodell und die Nutzer. Eine Analyse.

I tried to write something up to talk about an idea, but it didn't quite work. I have a lot more I need to put into it. But I want to get an idea out, and, after talking with a person who pointed out some of the flaws in what I wrote, I think I can maybe write down the kernel of the idea here.
An acquaintance of mine did a deep dive on Operational Art and wrote his thesis (which prompted an earlier set of posts and an article I wrote for my professional-ish blog) on the intersection of the OODA loop and critical philosophy. I've been spending a lot of time thinking about Kilcullen's Three Pillars model (after watching Andrewism's wonderful video) and Beer's VSM. The TL;DR of it is that there's a much better insurgency model. Of course, the insurgency model also works for a bunch of other things, because cybernetics lets you do all kinds of cool abstraction like that.
So as I was reading the essay of a comrade the other day, that model popped back into my head and I'm going to try to share what I can of it.
When colonizers came to the Salish region, they saw what they believed to be an untouched wilderness. They failed to see the ways in which Salish people tended the land. Indigenous fire practices were common on the northwest coast, and the suppression of those practices remains a problem. There is an interrelationship between an environment and the systems within it. Systems, like people, animals, and cultures, adapt to the environment. In doing so, those systems will also change the environment.
Social technology was invisible, so colonizers defaulted to either some kind of Rousseauvian or Malthusian model of these people. They were not, for the colonizers, people who had developed advanced social technologies to live in harmony with their world. They were, rather, people in "a state of nature."
The European influenced left continues to draw this Rousseauvian model, which continues through a lot of Anarchist revolutionary thought. European anarchists were heavily influenced by observations and theories around the behavior of indigenous people. The remnants of this thought still exist in the idea that the system must only be destroyed for us to be free.
This is the same obliviousness to social technology, that social technology actually exists, often informs both early colonizers and modern radicals.
It is through this obliviousness that we fail to recognize how capitalism is a social technology that is managed into existence and maintained, and how changes in the environment can threaten institutions that have become over-adapted to a specific version of that environment.
We can extend Kilcullen's metaphor of a "conflict ecosystem" through cybernetics into a much more rich model, populated by viable systems. The ecosystem itself has a fitness function, which drives adaptation within the environment. But all actors in the environment also affect it. Some try to manage the environment. Revolutions are often over who manages a social ecosystem, over who controls the social technology and what it does.
Once we see this dynamic at play, calls of "riot" and "revolution" make a whole lot less sense. Rather, the question becomes, "how do we change the ecosystem in such a way that it cannot be 'managed' at all?"
Graeber/Wengrow talked about Turtle Island indigenous social technologies in Dawn of Everything, such as the system of moieties and clans described in the book. So I have a good reading list as I think through this model, but I hope the "ecosystem" model is helpful (if not completely fleshed out).
I'd be interested in any critiques or thoughts to help develop this idea more.

«Exceptionalism is universal». Alle halten sich für einen Sonderfall.
Ressourcensicherheit: Damit meine ich vor allem die regenerativen Ressourcen. Das sind die wesentlichsten; sie begrenzen alles andere.
https://www.derbund.ch/mathis-wackernagel-…

Mathis Wackernagel: Der Erfinder des ökologischen Fussabdrucks im Interview
Die Schweiz sagt gern, sie sei zu klein, um in der Umweltpolitik etwas auszurichten. Eine faule Ausrede? «Ja», sagt Mathis Wackernagel. «Alle halten sich für einen Sonderfall.»

Ich hab schon öfters von der Franz-Fischer-Hütte mit seiner fleischlosen Ausrichtung gehört. Dieses Interview mit der Wirtin finde ich sehr spannend, Evelyn Matejka scheint das vernünftig angegangen zu sein und kommt in dem Interview auch recht lässig rüber.
Ich glaub ich hol mir ihr Kochbuch, weil ich will wirklich wissen wie man diese Räuchertofu-Knödel macht. 😋
h…