Tootfinder

Nowcasting the euro area with social media data
Konstantin Boss, Luigi Longo, Luca Onorante
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.10546 https://…

Nowcasting the euro area with social media data
Using a state-of-the-art large language model, we extract forward-looking and context-sensitive signals related to inflation and unemployment in the euro area from millions of Reddit submissions and comments. We develop daily indicators that incorporate, in addition to posts, the social interaction among users. Our empirical results show consistent gains in out-of-sample nowcasting accuracy relative to daily newspaper sentiment and financial variables, especially in unusual times such as the (p…

MTG-S1 and Sentinel-4 launch to change how we see our atmosphere: #MTGS1 satellite has been designed to generate a completely new type of data product, especially suited to nowcasting rapidly evolving storms, with three-dimensional views of the atmosphere, while Copernicus Sentinel-4, which consists of an instrument mounted on the MTG-S1 satellite, will be the first mission to monitor European air quality from geostationary orbit.

Bayesian Deep Learning for Convective Initiation Nowcasting Uncertainty Estimation
Da Fan, David John Gagne II, Steven J. Greybush, Eugene E. Clothiaux, John S. Schreck, Chaopeng Shen
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.16219

Bayesian Deep Learning for Convective Initiation Nowcasting Uncertainty Estimation
This study evaluated the probability and uncertainty forecasts of five recently proposed Bayesian deep learning methods relative to a deterministic residual neural network (ResNet) baseline for 0-1 h convective initiation (CI) nowcasting using GOES-16 satellite infrared observations. Uncertainty was assessed by how well probabilistic forecasts were calibrated and how well uncertainty separated forecasts with large and small errors. Most of the Bayesian deep learning methods produced probabilist…