Tootfinder

Nowcasting the euro area with social media data
Konstantin Boss, Luigi Longo, Luca Onorante
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.10546 https://…

Nowcasting the euro area with social media data
Using a state-of-the-art large language model, we extract forward-looking and context-sensitive signals related to inflation and unemployment in the euro area from millions of Reddit submissions and comments. We develop daily indicators that incorporate, in addition to posts, the social interaction among users. Our empirical results show consistent gains in out-of-sample nowcasting accuracy relative to daily newspaper sentiment and financial variables, especially in unusual times such as the (p…