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A Scenario-based Model Predictive Control Scheme for Pandemic Response through Non-pharmaceutical Interventions
Domagoj Herceg, Marco DellOro, Riccardo Bertollo, Fuminari Miura, Paul de Klaver, Valentina Breschi, Dinesh Krishnamoorthy, Mauro Salazar
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.17972

A Scenario-based Model Predictive Control Scheme for Pandemic Response through Non-pharmaceutical Interventions
This paper presents a scenario-based model predictive control (MPC) scheme designed to control an evolving pandemic via non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPIs). The proposed approach combines predictions of possible pandemic evolution to decide on a level of severity of NPIs to be implemented over multiple weeks to maintain hospital pressure below a prescribed threshold, while minimizing their impact on society. Specifically, we first introduce a compartmental model which divides the population …