Tootfinder

The full formula for the probability of "success" is:
p = {
1/(2^(-n 1)) if n is negative, or
1 - (1/(2^(n 1))) if n is zero or positive
}
(Both branches have the same value when n is 0, so the behavior is smooth around the origin.)
How can we tweak this?
First, we can introduce fixed success and/or failure chances unaffected by level, with this formula only taking effect if those don't apply. For example, you could do 10% failure, 80% by formula, and 10% success to keep things from being too sure either way even when levels are very high or low. On the other hand, this flattening makes the benefit of extra advantage levels even less exciting.
Second, we could allow for gradations of success/failure, and treat the coin pools I used to explain that math like dice pools a bit. An in-between could require linearly more success flips to achieve the next higher grade of success at each grade. For example, simple success on a crit role might mean dealing 1.5x damage, but if you succeed on 2 of your flips, you get 9/4 damage, or on 4 flips 27/8, or on 7 flips 81/16. In this world, stacking crit levels might be a viable build, and just giving up on armor would be super dangerous. In the particular case I was using this for just now, I can't easily do gradations of success (that's the reason I turned to probabilities in the first place) but I think I'd favor this approach when feasible.
The main innovation here over simple dice pools is how to handle situations where the number of dice should be negative. I'm almost certain it's not a truly novel innovation though, and some RPG fan can point out which system already does this (please actually do this, I'm an RPG nerd too at heart).
I'll leave this with one more tweak we could do: what if the number 2 in the probability equation were 3, or 2/3? I think this has a similar effect to just scaling all the modifiers a bit, but the algebra escapes me in this moment and I'm a bit lazy. In any case, reducing the base of the probability exponent should let you get a few more gradations near 50%, which is probably a good thing, since the default goes from 25% straight to 50% and then to 75% with no integer stops in between.

LLMs are now part of our daily work, making coding easier. Join Ivan Dolgov at this year's Berlin Buzzwords to learn how they built an in-house LLM for AI code completion in JetBrains products, covering design choices, data preparation, training and model evaluation.
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Apache Flink is uniquely positioned to serve as the backbone for AI agents, equipping them with the powerful new tool of stream processing. Join Steffen Hoellinger at this year's Berlin Buzzwords to explore how Flink jobs can be transformed into “Agents”—autonomous, goal-driven entities that dynamically interact with data streams, trigger actions, and adapt their behaviour based on real-time insights.
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"Jaguar recovery unites Brazil and Argentina in conservation effort"
#Brazil #Argentina #Conservation #Animals

Jaguar recovery unites Brazil and Argentina in conservation effort
The dark rosettes dotting the golden-brown fur of the jaguar are no longer a rare sight in Brazil’s Iguaçu National Park. In 2010, the protected area’s population of jaguars (Panthera onca) was on the brink of local extinction. Now, thanks to persistent conservation efforts led by Yara Barros, a biologist and executive coordinator of the […]

Since November 2024, Serbia had a sharp rise in attacks on journalists amid political unrest, including 23 physical assaults and 128 total attacks and threats (Attila Mong/Committee to Protect Journalists)
https://cpj.org/2025/06/alarming-escal

Alarming escalation in attacks on journalists amid political crisis in Serbia - Committee to Protect Journalists
Berlin, June 3, 2025—What journalists called a “witch hunt” atmosphere against government critics in Serbia one year ago has since escalated into a rise in attacks and threats against the press, following a deadly railway station collapse in November 2024 that triggered a widespread anti-corruption movement. Initial protests demanding accountability for the tragedy have turned...

Ask yourself: How many water bottles thrown at cops are worth keeping one innocent American* teen out of inhumane #ICE detention?
For anyone criticizing the #LA protests or suggesting they should stop for any reason, let's be clear about the stakes. Read this article (or my summary):
https://abcnews.go.com/US/massachusetts-teen-detained-ice-family-video-ice/story?id=122511685
This 18-year-old was snatched without a warrant, because he was in his dad's car and allegedly (possibly a lie or mistake) his dad drove recklessly. He's been in the US since he was 5, originally on a student visa that's since expired. He is an innocent American, by any reasonable definition of those two words*. Thankfully, he's since been released on bail, but he may yet be held indefinitely in ICE detention (in inhumane conditions that have been repeatedly documented) and/or separated from his family & friends and shipped off to Brazil where he last lived when he was 5 (ICE does not care whether he speaks Portuguese, has any family there, etc), all potentially without due process (though he seems to be getting that in this case). Even if this doesn't happen to Marcelo due to the media attention & protests, it is certainly happening to other innocent Americans throughout the country who aren't as lucky to have people standing up for them.
Here's Marcelo speaking about detention conditions and those he was detained with:
https://youtube.com/shorts/ZpZMUb9aEys?si=bpK-022CU7Acb5RY
Do you know how many kids like Marcelo were detained in LA yesterday? Probably zero, because of the protests, including their confrontational tactics. The most "violence" I've seen (from the protestors) is throwing a water bottle at a line of heavily-armored riot police. So the protests are working to protect the community. If you're suggesting a change in tactics, consider whether your suggested tactics (like pre-scheduled non-confrontational protests that have been happening for weeks) will protect the Marcelos of LA.
*Whether he's innocent or American should not in fact matter, but sadly it might to some reading this. If that's you, you've still got some growing up to do.

Message your congresscritters, NOW. Tell them to order Trump to call off the military.
(He won't listen, but that sets up a direct confrontation sooner rather than later. Which is good for us.)
https://action.aclu.org/send-message/tell-congress…

Tell Congress: No Troops on Our Streets
President Trump has deployed thousands of National Guard and federal troops into our communities in response to Angelenos protesting the dangerous and cruel ICE raids across LA. Tell Congress: No troops on our streets.

We all perform tasks in our day-to-day work that are considered 'non-promotable' – these are crucial for project success, but they won't get you promoted. This is commonly known as 'glue work', a term coined by Tanya Reilly. Join Fatima Taj at this year's Berlin Buzzwords as she shares her personal experience of narrowly avoiding the trap of being permanently stuck with glue work, and explains how to handle similar situations.
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What is this type of helmet supposed to protect you from? Someone hitting you with a blunt object on the top of your head, because obviously they wouldn’t do it in the neck or over the ears? Worn by police SWAT team members in an exercise at Prague Castle.

"Researchers identify 22 key areas for protecting struggling giant otters"
#Otters #Animals #Conservation

Researchers identify 22 key areas for protecting struggling giant otters
“They’re big, like an overweight Peruvian dog,” is how photographer Santiago Romaní describes giant otters (Pteronura brasiliensis). In 2022, on his trip to the Imiría Regional Conservation Area, a protected area in the Ucayali region of Peru’s east-central Amazon, he observed the aquatic river giants. That same year, the area’s administration confirmed the presence of […]