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Do Betting Markets Sense a Goal Coming? Evidence from the German Bundesliga
David Winkelmann, Christian Deutscher
https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.21275 https://…

Do Betting Markets Sense a Goal Coming? Evidence from the German Bundesliga
We use the fertile ground of betting markets to study the anticipation of major news in financial markets. While there is a considerable body of literature on the accuracy and efficiency of betting markets after important in-match events, there are no studies dealing with the anticipation of such events. This paper tracks bookmaker odds and betting stakes to provide insights into the movement of both prior to goals. Utilising high-resolution (1 Hz) data from a leading European bookmaker for a f…