Tootfinder

#Sonnenstürme verkürzen die Lebensdauer von #Starlink-Satelliten und lassen sie schneller zur Erde zurückkehren.
Durch erhöhte #Atmosphärendichte steigt der Luftwiderstan…

Tracking Reentries of Starlink Satellites During the Rising Phase of Solar Cycle 25
The exponential increase of low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites in the past 5 years has brought into intense focus the need for reliable monitoring and reentry prediction to safeguard from space collisions and ground debris impacts. However, LEO satellites fly within the upper atmosphere region that exerts significant drag forces to their orbits, reducing their lifetimes, and increasing collision risks during dynamic events, like geomagnetic storms. Such conditions can become more severe during ge…

This https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.19381 has been replaced.
initial toot: https://mastoxiv.page/@arXiv_csAI_…

DiffVLA: Vision-Language Guided Diffusion Planning for Autonomous Driving
Research interest in end-to-end autonomous driving has surged owing to its fully differentiable design integrating modular tasks, i.e. perception, prediction and planing, which enables optimization in pursuit of the ultimate goal. Despite the great potential of the end-to-end paradigm, existing methods suffer from several aspects including expensive BEV (bird's eye view) computation, action diversity, and sub-optimal decision in complex real-world scenarios. To address these challenges, we prop…

This https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.16139 has been replaced.
initial toot: https://mastoxiv.page/@arXiv_sta…

Abnormal component analysis
At the crossway of machine learning and data analysis, anomaly detection aims at identifying observations that exhibit abnormal behaviour. Be it measurement errors, disease development, severe weather, production quality default(s) (items) or failed equipment, financial frauds or crisis events, their on-time identification and isolation constitute an important task in almost any area of industry and science. While a substantial body of literature is devoted to detection of anomalies, little att…

The full formula for the probability of "success" is:
p = {
1/(2^(-n 1)) if n is negative, or
1 - (1/(2^(n 1))) if n is zero or positive
}
(Both branches have the same value when n is 0, so the behavior is smooth around the origin.)
How can we tweak this?
First, we can introduce fixed success and/or failure chances unaffected by level, with this formula only taking effect if those don't apply. For example, you could do 10% failure, 80% by formula, and 10% success to keep things from being too sure either way even when levels are very high or low. On the other hand, this flattening makes the benefit of extra advantage levels even less exciting.
Second, we could allow for gradations of success/failure, and treat the coin pools I used to explain that math like dice pools a bit. An in-between could require linearly more success flips to achieve the next higher grade of success at each grade. For example, simple success on a crit role might mean dealing 1.5x damage, but if you succeed on 2 of your flips, you get 9/4 damage, or on 4 flips 27/8, or on 7 flips 81/16. In this world, stacking crit levels might be a viable build, and just giving up on armor would be super dangerous. In the particular case I was using this for just now, I can't easily do gradations of success (that's the reason I turned to probabilities in the first place) but I think I'd favor this approach when feasible.
The main innovation here over simple dice pools is how to handle situations where the number of dice should be negative. I'm almost certain it's not a truly novel innovation though, and some RPG fan can point out which system already does this (please actually do this, I'm an RPG nerd too at heart).
I'll leave this with one more tweak we could do: what if the number 2 in the probability equation were 3, or 2/3? I think this has a similar effect to just scaling all the modifiers a bit, but the algebra escapes me in this moment and I'm a bit lazy. In any case, reducing the base of the probability exponent should let you get a few more gradations near 50%, which is probably a good thing, since the default goes from 25% straight to 50% and then to 75% with no integer stops in between.

This https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.20002 has been replaced.
initial toot: https://mastoxiv.page/@arXiv_ees…

Efficient Gaussian Mixture Filters based on Transition Density Approximation
Gaussian mixture filters for nonlinear systems usually rely on severe approximations when calculating mixtures in the prediction and filtering step. Thus, offline approximations of noise densities by Gaussian mixture densities to reduce the approximation error have been proposed. This results in exponential growth in the number of components, requiring ongoing component reduction, which is computationally complex. In this paper, the key idea is to approximate the true transition density by an a…

I read "Then I Am Myself the World: What Consciousness Is and How to Expand It" by Christof Koch.
Interesting book which spends like 8 or 9 chapters detailing all the experiments which prove beyond much doubt that consciousness, and self awareness, is a thing done by a brain.
It describes how perception is a construction of a description, has a chapter called "computational mind"
And then spends the last two chapters describing why he thinks the mind can't be computed, because drugs have made him think experience is some kind of magic associated with highly interconnected causal structures.
Apparently, he thinks, once things become interconnected enough they become able to cause things independently of the physics running those connections.
Which is crazy, obviously. There's nothing causal in direct connections between neurons that isn't equally causal in modeled connections between virtual neurons.
All his evidence in the book from neural MRI scans to the effects of psychedelic drugs and symptoms of strokes and disease point to the brain simulating a virtual reality which is the basis of perception.
That simulated world in which we live is full of colour and shape and sounds and emotions and millions of mental constructs that are built to be correlated by the senses with the outside world, but are not equal to the world itself. We live in a dream constructed to correlate with reality.
But then instead of taking the next step: That consciousness itself is a property of a simulated being inside that mental model of the universe, a property which the brain simulates and applies to the virtual self that's doing the experiencing inside that model, he jumps towards some magic implying pan-psychism or that sufficiently interconnected networks become causally self-complete for some reason nobody can fathom.
Sure, colour and shape and emotions are all made up by the brain but experience can't be! For some reason.
You see in truth dualism is false, in that there is no spirit realm in which ghosts animate the matter of the body somehow.
Yet also, dualism is true, in that there is a simulated mental reality which we live in, computed by the brain in which all perception and experience are created, which is related-to but separate-from the unfolding complicated dance of energy that is the universe our bodies interact with.
People take some DMT trip, and the model of the universe emulated by their brain collapses and breaks. Their virtual simulated self inside their mind has these experiences of being one with the universe or the experience of feeling dead yet conscious or whatever, and these hippies think that the broken down simulated experience is real and reflects how consciousness is more fundamental than the atoms that make up the neurons in their brain.
Instead of realizing it shows them that their experienced universe is a simulacrum, they think they get a more direct experience of reality somehow. A consciousness more pure than any mere base atom.
"Then I am myself the world" is a great title. Everything you ever experience is created and simulated in your brain like a dream, the whole universe is inside your head. Even the fact of experience itself.
But that isn't the conclusion Koch reaches somehow, he just jumps from describing the evidence that this is so straight into ascribing super-causal magic consciousness to particular arrangements of atoms that integrated information theory suggest have high correlation, and thinks therefore conciousness is itself the entire universe.
Ah well, fun book. I like arguing in my head with authors that are wrong.
#reading #books #consciousness #thenIAmMyselfTheWorld

Tracking Reentries of Starlink Satellites During the Rising Phase of Solar Cycle 25
Denny M. Oliveira, Eftyhia Zesta, Katherine Garcia-Sage
https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.13752

Tracking Reentries of Starlink Satellites During the Rising Phase of Solar Cycle 25
The exponential increase of low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites in the past 5 years has brought into intense focus the need for reliable monitoring and reentry prediction to safeguard from space collisions and ground debris impacts. However, LEO satellites fly within the upper atmosphere region that exerts significant drag forces to their orbits, reducing their lifetimes, and increasing collision risks during dynamic events, like geomagnetic storms. Such conditions can become more severe during ge…