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STOAT: Spatial-Temporal Probabilistic Causal Inference Network
Yang Yang, Du Yin, Hao Xue, Flora Salim
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.09544 https://

STOAT: Spatial-Temporal Probabilistic Causal Inference Network
Spatial-temporal causal time series (STC-TS) involve region-specific temporal observations driven by causally relevant covariates and interconnected across geographic or network-based spaces. Existing methods often model spatial and temporal dynamics independently and overlook causality-driven probabilistic forecasting, limiting their predictive power. To address this, we propose STOAT (Spatial-Temporal Probabilistic Causal Inference Network), a novel framework for probabilistic forecasting in …