Tootfinder

Latent Variable Autoregression with Exogenous Inputs
Daniil Bargman
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.04488 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2506.04488…

Latent Variable Autoregression with Exogenous Inputs
This paper introduces a new least squares regression methodology called (C)LARX: a (constrained) latent variable autoregressive model with exogenous inputs. Two additional contributions are made as a side effect: First, a new matrix operator is introduced for matrices and vectors with blocks along one dimension; Second, a new latent variable regression (LVR) framework is proposed for economics and finance. The empirical section examines how well the stock market predicts real economic activity …

Classification of Extremal Dependence in Financial Markets via Bootstrap Inference
Qian Hui, Sidney I. Resnick, Tiandong Wang
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.04656

Classification of Extremal Dependence in Financial Markets via Bootstrap Inference
Accurately identifying the extremal dependence structure in multivariate heavy-tailed data is a fundamental yet challenging task, particularly in financial applications. Following a recently proposed bootstrap-based testing procedure, we apply the methodology to absolute log returns of U.S. S&P 500 and Chinese A-share stocks over a time period well before the U.S. election in 2024. The procedure reveals more isolated clustering of dependent assets in the U.S. economy compared with China which e…

Analysis of Multiple Long Run Relations in Panel Data Models with Applications to Financial Ratios
Alexander Chudik, M. Hashem Pesaran, Ron P. Smith
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.02135

Analysis of Multiple Long Run Relations in Panel Data Models with Applications to Financial Ratios
This paper provides a new methodology for the analysis of multiple long run relations in panel data models where the cross section dimension, $n$, is large relative to the time series dimension, $T$. For panel data models with large $n$ researchers have focused on panels with a single long run relationship. The main difficulty has been to eliminate short run dynamics without generating significant uncertainty for identification of the long run. We overcome this problem by using non-overlapping …

Deep Learning Enhanced Multivariate GARCH
Haoyuan Wang, Chen Liu, Minh-Ngoc Tran, Chao Wang
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.02796 https://…

Deep Learning Enhanced Multivariate GARCH
This paper introduces a novel multivariate volatility modeling framework, named Long Short-Term Memory enhanced BEKK (LSTM-BEKK), that integrates deep learning into multivariate GARCH processes. By combining the flexibility of recurrent neural networks with the econometric structure of BEKK models, our approach is designed to better capture nonlinear, dynamic, and high-dimensional dependence structures in financial return data. The proposed model addresses key limitations of traditional multiva…

High-Dimensional Regularized Additive Matrix Autoregressive Model
Debika Ghosh, Samrat Roy, Nilanjana Chakraborty
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.01403 https://…

High-Dimensional Regularized Additive Matrix Autoregressive Model
High-dimensional time series has diverse applications in econometrics and finance. Recent models for capturing temporal dependence have employed a bilinear representation for matrix time series, or the Tucker-decomposition based representation in case of tensor time series. A bilinear or Tucker-decomposition based temporal effect is difficult to interpret on many occasions, along with its computational complexity due to the non-convex nature of the underlying optimization problem. Moreover, the…

Hybrid Models for Financial Forecasting: Combining Econometric, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning Models
Dominik Stempie\'n, Robert \'Slepaczuk
https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.19617

Hybrid Models for Financial Forecasting: Combining Econometric, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning Models
This research systematically develops and evaluates various hybrid modeling approaches by combining traditional econometric models (ARIMA and ARFIMA models) with machine learning and deep learning techniques (SVM, XGBoost, and LSTM models) to forecast financial time series. The empirical analysis is based on two distinct financial assets: the S&P 500 index and Bitcoin. By incorporating over two decades of daily data for the S&P 500 and almost ten years of Bitcoin data, the study provides a comp…