I have believed for a long time now that humanity has proven incapable of a 'gradual decline' of anything that it is truly dependent on even if alternatives are available.
We seem pre-programmed to use something to the max... hit rock bottom in terms of impacts on our own health and general well being… and then go pretty much cold turkey. (either through replacement or outright abstinence).
I believe it will be the same with fossil fuels.
We are possibly seeing a slight reduction now globally in overall use of oil. But it is still far and away too too much.
Maybe we’ll cut this by 10% or 20% in the next 10 or 20 years... but zero by 2050? Not a chance.
I believe we will go and go and go, until one day we can go no more, the pressure is too great, the casualties too high, the effects too devastating, and the impact of complete shutdown of the fossil fuel industry in less than 5 years will seem less bad than the damage we have already done and are sure to suffer in future.
I hope I live to see that day, not out of morbidity, but out of hope. I want to die knowing we finally did it. I don't know if that's going to happen.
Not an uplifting prediction, I know, but seriously, tell me I'm wrong.
#CanPoli #Cdnpoli #ClimateCatastrophe #Oil #Gas #EndFossilFuels
chart from the 2025 IEA report: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/018c3361-bc01-4482-a386-a5b2747ae82a/Oil2025.pdf