Tootfinder

Current probability of aurora.

from my link log —
Dissolving the Fermi paradox.
https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404
saved 2025-04-18 https://dotat.at/:/U1H2Q.html

Dissolving the Fermi Paradox
The Fermi paradox is the conflict between an expectation of a high {\em ex ante} probability of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe and the apparently lifeless universe we in fact observe. The expectation that the universe should be teeming with intelligent life is linked to models like the Drake equation, which suggest that even if the probability of intelligent life developing at a given site is small, the sheer multitude of possible sites should nonetheless yield a large number of pot…

This https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.21161 has been replaced.
initial toot: https://mastoxiv.page/@arXiv_csRO_…

Collision Probability Estimation for Optimization-based Vehicular Motion Planning
Many motion planning algorithms for automated driving require estimating the probability of collision (POC) to account for uncertainties in the measurement and estimation of the motion of road users. Common POC estimation techniques often utilize sampling-based methods that suffer from computational inefficiency and a non-deterministic estimation, i.e., each estimation result for the same inputs is slightly different. In contrast, optimization-based motion planning algorithms require computatio…

Identification of Cellular Automata on Spaces of Bernoulli Probability Measures
Faizal Hafiz, Amelia Kunze, Enrico Formenti, Davide La Torre
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.22867

Identification of Cellular Automata on Spaces of Bernoulli Probability Measures
Classical Cellular Automata (CCAs) are a powerful computational framework for modeling global spatio-temporal dynamics with local interactions. While CCAs have been applied across numerous scientific fields, identifying the local rule that governs observed dynamics remains a challenging task. Moreover, the underlying assumption of deterministic cell states often limits the applicability of CCAs to systems characterized by inherent uncertainty. This study, therefore, focuses on the identificatio…

Provably convergent stochastic fixed-point algorithm for free-support Wasserstein barycenter of continuous non-parametric measures
Zeyi Chen, Ariel Neufeld, Qikun Xiang
https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.24384

Provably convergent stochastic fixed-point algorithm for free-support Wasserstein barycenter of continuous non-parametric measures
We propose a provably convergent algorithm for approximating the 2-Wasserstein barycenter of continuous non-parametric probability measures. Our algorithm is inspired by the fixed-point iterative scheme of Álvarez-Esteban et al. (2016) whose convergence to the 2-Wasserstein barycenter relies on obtaining exact optimal transport (OT) maps. However, typically in practice, OT maps are only approximately computed and exact computation of OT maps between continuous probability measures is only trac…

This https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.18022 has been replaced.
initial toot: https://mastoxiv.page/@arXiv_csIT_…

Iterative Joint Detection of Kalman Filter and Channel Decoder for Sensor-to-Controller Link in Wireless Networked Control Systems
In this letter, we propose an iterative joint detection algorithm of Kalman filter (KF) and channel decoder for the sensor-to-controller link of wireless networked control systems, which utilizes the prior information of control system to improve control and communication performance. In this algorithm, we first use the KF to estimate the probability density of the control system outputs and calculate the prior probability of received signals to assist decoder. Then, the possible outputs of the…

Critical elements in algebras of numerical events
Dietmar Dorninger, Helmut L\"anger
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.00194 https://ar…

Critical elements in algebras of numerical events
The probability p(s) of the occurrence of an event pertaining to a physical system which is observed in different states s determines a function p from the set S of states of the system to [0,1]. The function p is called a numerical event or more precisely an S-probability. When appropriately structured, sets P of numerical events form so-called algebras of S-probabilities, which are orthomodular posets that can serve as quantum logics. If one deals with a classical physical system, then P will…

Closed-form survival probabilities for biased random walks at arbitrary step number
Debendro Mookerjee, Sarah Kostinski
https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.24814 ht…

Closed-form survival probabilities for biased random walks at arbitrary step number
We present a closed-form expression for the survival probability of a biased random walker to first reach a target site on a 1D lattice. The expression holds for any step number $N$ and is computationally faster than non-closed-form results in the literature. Because our result is exact even in the intermediate step number range, it serves as a tool to study convergence to the large $N$ limit. We also obtain a closed-form expression for the probability of last passage. In contrast to prediction…

Sensitivity analysis of epidemic forecasting and spreading on networks with probability generating functions
Mariah C. Boudreau, William H. W. Thompson, Christopher M. Danforth, Jean-Gabriel Young, Laurent H\'ebert-Dufresne
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.24103

Sensitivity analysis of epidemic forecasting and spreading on networks with probability generating functions
Epidemic forecasting tools embrace the stochasticity and heterogeneity of disease spread to predict the growth and size of outbreaks. Conceptually, stochasticity and heterogeneity are often modeled as branching processes or as percolation on contact networks. Mathematically, probability generating functions provide a flexible and efficient tool to describe these models and quickly produce forecasts. While their predictions are probabilistic-i.e., distributions of outcome-they depend determinist…