@relcfp@mastodon.social2026-02-13 02:23:10
Repost: CfP Eating and drinking with gods: a comparative workshop (Groningen) https://networks.h-net.org/group/announcements/20141149/repost-cfp-eating-and-drinking-gods-comparative-workshop-groningen
@arXiv_csGT_bot@mastoxiv.page2025-12-08 08:18:30
Robust forecast aggregation via additional queries
Rafael Frongillo, Mary Monroe, Eric Neyman, Bo Waggoner
https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.05271 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.05271 https://arxiv.org/html/2512.05271
arXiv:2512.05271v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: We study the problem of robust forecast aggregation: combining expert forecasts with provable accuracy guarantees compared to the best possible aggregation of the underlying information. Prior work shows strong impossibility results, e.g. that even under natural assumptions, no aggregation of the experts' individual forecasts can outperform simply following a random expert (Neyman and Roughgarden, 2022).
In this paper, we introduce a more general framework that allows the principal to elicit richer information from experts through structured queries. Our framework ensures that experts will truthfully report their underlying beliefs, and also enables us to define notions of complexity over the difficulty of asking these queries. Under a general model of independent but overlapping expert signals, we show that optimal aggregation is achievable in the worst case with each complexity measure bounded above by the number of agents $n$. We further establish tight tradeoffs between accuracy and query complexity: aggregation error decreases linearly with the number of queries, and vanishes when the "order of reasoning" and number of agents relevant to a query is $\omega(\sqrt{n})$. These results demonstrate that modest extensions to the space of expert queries dramatically strengthen the power of robust forecast aggregation. We therefore expect that our new query framework will open up a fruitful line of research in this area.
toXiv_bot_toot
@metacurity@infosec.exchange2026-01-09 12:56:28
Second big cyber acquisition yesterday after CrowdStrike's purchase of SGNL.
Exclusive: Invictus-backed cybersecurity company ThreatModeler acquires competitor IriusRisk for over $100 million
https://fortune.com/2026/01/08/invictu
@Techmeme@techhub.social2026-01-08 17:20:48
ThreatModeler, which helps developers identify vulnerabilities in their applications, acquires IriusRisk, its largest competitor, a source says for $100M (Leo Schwartz/Fortune)
https://fortune.com/2026/01/08/invictus-threatmodeler-irius…
@Mediagazer@mstdn.social2025-12-10 04:55:56
Chernin Group agrees to take a minority stake in Entangled Publishing, a publisher of romance-fantasy books; sources say the deal values Entangled at ~$400M (Wall Street Journal)
https://www.wsj.com/business/media/chernin
@publicvoit@graz.social2026-02-09 07:55:17
If you're following my #publiicvoit blog via Atom feed:
I might have found a fix for my broken feed format: https://github.com/novoid/lazyblorg/issues/24
Please report back a…
@cdarwin@c.im2026-02-01 18:33:44
On February 1, 1960, four Black freshmen from the Agricultural and Technical College of North Carolina,
(today known as North Carolina A&T State University),
sat down at the segregated lunch counter at the Woolworth’s in downtown Greensboro and asked to be served.
When staff refused to serve them, they refused to leave.
These four students,
now known as the Greensboro Four,
included Ezell Blair Jr. (who later changed his name to Jibreel Khazan),
@relcfp@mastodon.social2026-02-10 06:28:42
Repost: CfP Eating and drinking with gods: a comparative workshop (Groningen) https://networks.h-net.org/group/announcements/20141149/repost-cfp-eating-and-drinking-gods-comparative-workshop-groningen
@cdarwin@c.im2025-12-06 04:03:31
US immigration authorities arrested a visiting professor at Harvard law school
after he was charged with discharging a pellet gun outside a Massachusetts synagogue the day before Yom Kippur,
– and he agreed to leave the country.
Carlos Portugal Gouvea, a Brazilian citizen, was arrested on Wednesday by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)
after his temporary nonimmigrant visa was revoked by the state department
following what the Trump administration labe…
@relcfp@mastodon.social2026-02-10 06:25:38
Repost: CfP Eating and drinking with gods: a comparative workshop (Groningen)
https://ift.tt/1UPCeoM
Slave subjectivities in the Iberian Worlds (15th- 20th centuries) Date: October 31,…
via Input 4 RELCFP