Tootfinder

The National Weather Service is forecasting a major storm for Santa Barbara County expected to arrive Monday, October 13th. The following conditions are possible countywide:
Hail and lightning
Brief, heavy rainfall
Dangerous flash flooding
Flooding in low-lying areas and strong winds
Shallow debris flows for locations in and beneath recent wildfire burn areas including the Gifford Fire and Lake Fire.
Detailed weather forecasts are available at

U.S. Forces Launch Operations to Seize Fleeing Oil Tanker (Wall Street Journal)
https://www.wsj.com/world/u-s-forces-launch-operation-to-seize-fleeing-oil-tanker-0d6443ab?st=crtxCJ&reflink=article_copyURL_share
http://www.memeorandum.com/260107/p26#a260107p26

U.S. Forces Launch Operation to Seize Fleeing Venezuela-Linked Oil Tanker Despite Russian Escort https://ground.news/article/us-forces-launch-operation-to-seize-fleeing-oil-tanker

#Iran : Mosquée incendiée Š #Téhéran. Elle serait fréquentée par les forces de répression.
Source non vérifiée

Please watch @…’s latest video about the upcoming rains being forecast for Gaza, what it means for the people there who are attempting to exist in makeshift tents, and what you can do to help.
Also, if you’re not already following her, please do.
She’s part of our team at Gaza Verified and, this week, will be running verification calls alongside

Robust forecast aggregation via additional queries
Rafael Frongillo, Mary Monroe, Eric Neyman, Bo Waggoner
https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.05271 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.05271 https://arxiv.org/html/2512.05271
arXiv:2512.05271v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: We study the problem of robust forecast aggregation: combining expert forecasts with provable accuracy guarantees compared to the best possible aggregation of the underlying information. Prior work shows strong impossibility results, e.g. that even under natural assumptions, no aggregation of the experts' individual forecasts can outperform simply following a random expert (Neyman and Roughgarden, 2022).
In this paper, we introduce a more general framework that allows the principal to elicit richer information from experts through structured queries. Our framework ensures that experts will truthfully report their underlying beliefs, and also enables us to define notions of complexity over the difficulty of asking these queries. Under a general model of independent but overlapping expert signals, we show that optimal aggregation is achievable in the worst case with each complexity measure bounded above by the number of agents $n$. We further establish tight tradeoffs between accuracy and query complexity: aggregation error decreases linearly with the number of queries, and vanishes when the "order of reasoning" and number of agents relevant to a query is $\omega(\sqrt{n})$. These results demonstrate that modest extensions to the space of expert queries dramatically strengthen the power of robust forecast aggregation. We therefore expect that our new query framework will open up a fruitful line of research in this area.
toXiv_bot_toot

UN sees world's emissions falling 10% by 2035, far short of 60% goal #environment

UN sees world's emissions falling 10% by 2035, far short of 60% goal
Global emissions of planet-warming greenhouse gases are expected to fall by about 10% by 2035, compared with 1990 levels, representing the first decline ever forecast by the United Nations. But the world remains well off course to keeping global warming below the 1.5 C leaders committed to when they signed the Paris Agreement a decade ago.

Snowflake reports Q3 product revenue up 29% YoY to $1.16B, and forecasts Q4 adjusted operating income margin below estimates; SNOW drops 7% after hours (Brody Ford/Bloomberg)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-0…

WTF does kidnapping a foreign leader on his own soil have to do with US Law Enforcement?
"This operation was done in conjunction with U.S. Law Enforcement"
Trump says US forces have captured Nicolas Maduro
Here's text from a Truth Social post:
"The United States of America has successfully carried out a large scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, President Nicolas Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the Cou…

Donald Trump says US forces have 'captured' Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro
US President Donald Trump says the US has "captured" Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, who earlier declared a national emergency and hit out at US "military aggression" after attacks in the capital, Caracas.

PROGRESSIVE CAUCUS DEPUTY CHAIR CALLS FOR IMMEDIATE VOTE TO END TRUMP'S ILLEGAL WAR ON VENEZUELA
Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) Deputy Chair Rep. Ilhan Omar (MN-05)
released the following statement after news that Trump launched airstrikes inside Venezuela and captured its head of state:
"Trump's invasion of Venezuela is blatantly illegal and unconstitutional.
He has no authority to deploy U.S. forces into foreign countries to bomb them, capture …