Tootfinder

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Fluctuations
Yongheng Hu
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.15169 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.15169…

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Fluctuations
In this paper, we model USD-CNY bilateral exchange rate fluctuations as a general stochastic process and incorporate monetary policy shock to examine how bilateral exchange rate fluctuations affect the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index. Numerical simulations indicate that as the mean of bilateral exchange rate fluctuations increases, i.e., currency devaluation, the RCA index rises. Moreover, smaller bilateral exchange rate fluctuations after the policy shock cause the RCA index to grad…

Op-Fed: Opinion, Stance, and Monetary Policy Annotations on FOMC Transcripts Using Active Learning
Alisa Kanganis, Katherine A. Keith
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.13539 https://…

Op-Fed: Opinion, Stance, and Monetary Policy Annotations on FOMC Transcripts Using Active Learning
The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regularly discusses and sets monetary policy, affecting the borrowing and spending decisions of millions of people. In this work, we release Op-Fed, a dataset of 1044 human-annotated sentences and their contexts from FOMC transcripts. We faced two major technical challenges in dataset creation: imbalanced classes -- we estimate fewer than 8% of sentences express a non-neutral stance towards monetary policy -- and inter-sentence dependence -- 65% of …

In-between Transatlantic (Monetary) Disturbances
Santiago Camara, Jeanne Aublin
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.13578 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.13578

In-between Transatlantic (Monetary) Disturbances
This paper studies the spillovers of European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate shocks into the Canadian economy and compares them with those of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). We combine a VAR model and local projection regressions with identification strategies that explicitly purge information effects around policy announcements. We find that an ECB rate hike leads to a depreciation of the Canadian dollar and a sharp contraction in economic activity. The main transmission channel is internati…

Geopolitics, Geoeconomics and Risk:A Machine Learning Approach
Alvaro Ortiz, Tomasa Rodrigo
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.12416 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2510.124…

Geopolitics, Geoeconomics and Risk:A Machine Learning Approach
We introduce a novel high-frequency daily panel dataset of both markets and news-based indicators -- including Geopolitical Risk, Economic Policy Uncertainty, Trade Policy Uncertainty, and Political Sentiment -- for 42 countries across both emerging and developed markets. Using this dataset, we study how sentiment dynamics shape sovereign risk, measured by Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads, and evaluate their forecasting value relative to traditional drivers such as global monetary policy and m…

The Fed's 'Gain of Function' Monetary Policy (Scott Bessent/Wall Street Journal)
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-feds-gain-of-function-monetary-policy-ac0dc38a?st=8dD4Ha&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
http://www.memeorandum.com/250905/p93#a250905p93

From CCPA
Please join us for the 2025 Rosenbluth Lecture, featuring James K. Galbraith
What: Rosenbluth Lecture (webinar format)
Who: James K. Galbraith, renowned economist
When: November 25, 2025—3 pm ET/noon PT
Where: Zoom (link shared upon registration)
This webinar is free and open to the public.

The Interaction Between Domestic Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Policy in Israel
Jonathan Benchimol, Inon Gamrasni, Michael Kahn, Sigal Ribon, Yossi Saadon, Noam Ben-Ze'ev, Asaf Segal, Yitzchak Shizgal
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.07082

The Interaction Between Domestic Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Policy in Israel
The global financial crisis (GFC) triggered the use of macroprudential policies imposed on the banking sector. Using bank-level panel data for Israel for the period 2004-2019, we find that domestic macroprudential measures changed the composition of bank credit growth but did not affect the total credit growth rate. Specifically, we show that macroprudential measures targeted at the housing sector moderated housing credit growth but tended to increase business credit growth. We also find that a…

Economic fears of investors are here — and fed by Trump’s reaction

“Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell, a stubborn MORON, must substantially lower interest rates, NOW,”
Trump wrote on social media,
one week after telling reporters the Fed chief was “a very good man.”

The president has repeatedly mused about a near-unprecedented firing of Powell for refusing to cut rates to levels normally seen during profound economic weakness.
This week, the Fed’s monetary policy com…

Economic fears of investors are here — and fed by Trump’s reaction
President Donald Trump’s economic policies have sparked controversy and uncertainty, with a recent jobs report fueling concerns about the economy’s health.

This from IPPR on the greatly increased costs of UK government debt servicing seems reasonable from IPPR.
1) Tax the big 4 banks on the windfall profits that the government is, effectively, funding.
2) Slow down the QE buy-back.
I would also think that the government/bank could, as an exceptional measure, buy back some of the long term gilts using 'monetary financing' aka 'printing money'.
Not something to be done willy-nilly, but here it could get govt ou…

Fixing the leak: How to end the £22 billion annual taxpayer losses at the Bank of England
The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) is an independent charity working towards a fairer, greener, and more prosperous society.

An Analysis of Monetary Policy Evidence and Theory through Meta-Analyses
Ricardo Alonzo Fernandez Salguero
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.19591 https://arxiv.o…

An Analysis of Monetary Policy Evidence and Theory through Meta-Analyses
This paper offers a synthesis of the empirical literature on the effects of monetary policy. Using the findings from an extensive collection of meta-analyses, it evaluates the effectiveness of conventional and unconventional monetary policy instruments on key macroeconomic variables such as output, inflation, capital flows, and the exchange rate. The aggregated evidence reveals a systematic gap between the effects reported in primary studies and the actual magnitude of these effects, once corre…

Assessing the Effects of Monetary Shocks on Macroeconomic Stars: A SMUC-IV Framework
Bowen Fu, Chenghan Hou, Jan Pr\"user
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.05802 https://

Assessing the Effects of Monetary Shocks on Macroeconomic Stars: A SMUC-IV Framework
This paper proposes a structural multivariate unobserved components model with external instrument (SMUC-IV) to investigate the effects of monetary policy shocks on key U.S. macroeconomic "stars"-namely, the level of potential output, the growth rate of potential output, trend inflation, and the neutral interest rate. A key feature of our approach is the use of an external instrument to identify monetary policy shocks within the multivariate unob- served components modeling framework. We develo…

Every Living Former Fed $ Chair Urges #SCOTUS To Not O.K Shady Bankrupt Wannabe Dictator #DJT To Remove Lisa Cook From Monetary Policy Post

Neural ARFIMA model for forecasting BRIC exchange rates with long memory under oil shocks and policy uncertainties
Tanujit Chakraborty, Donia Besher, Madhurima Panja, Shovon Sengupta
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.06697

Neural ARFIMA model for forecasting BRIC exchange rates with long memory under oil shocks and policy uncertainties
Accurate forecasting of exchange rates remains a persistent challenge, particularly for emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC). These series exhibit long memory, nonlinearity, and non-stationarity properties that conventional time series models struggle to capture. Additionally, there exist several key drivers of exchange rate dynamics, including global economic policy uncertainty, US equity market volatility, US monetary policy uncertainty, oil price growth rates, a…

Central Bank Digital Currency: Demand Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy
Hanfeng Chen, Maria Elena Filippin
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.15048 https://

Central Bank Digital Currency: Demand Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy
We study the implications of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) for the transmission of household preference shocks and for welfare in a New Keynesian framework where the CBDC competes with bank deposits for household resources and banks have market power. We show that an increase in the benefit of CBDC has a mildly expansionary effect, weakening bank market power and significantly reducing the deposit spread. As households economize on liquid asset holdings, they reduce both CBDC and depos…

Federal Reserve Communication and the COVID-19 Pandemic
Jonathan Benchimol, Sophia Kazinnik, Yossi Saadon
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.04830 https://arxiv.or…

Federal Reserve Communication and the COVID-19 Pandemic
In this study, we examine the Federal Reserve's communication strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic, comparing them with communication during previous periods of economic stress. Using specialized dictionaries tailored to COVID-19, unconventional monetary policy (UMP), and financial stability, combined with sentiment analysis and topic modeling techniques, we identify a distinct focus in Fed communication during the pandemic on financial stability, market volatility, social welfare, and UMP, …