📢 Britischer Premier Starmer kündigt Rücktritt an
Der britische Premierminister Keir Starmer hat seinen Rücktritt als Chef der Labour-Partei bekanntgegeben. Als Premierminister werde er weitermachen, bis ein Nachfolger gefunden ist. Starmer stand zwei Jahre an der Spitze der Regierung. Zuletzt kämpfte der Labour-Chef mit schlechten Umfragewerten. Bei den Kommunalwahlen im Mai erlitt seine Partei schwere Verluste.
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Esta história sobre as soluções inteiras de x³ y³ z³=42 é maravilhosa! E combina demais com hoje, o #DiaDaToalha!
https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/brasil-49683783
James Talarico here.
Our fundraising has slowed dramatically.
Will you chip in even $1 ahead of our FEC deadline?
https://jt4tx.org
Help flip Texas Blue
Improving Ensemble CAPE Forecasts with a Diffusion Model Incorporating Aerosol Information
Zachary James, Joseph Guinness, Arthur DeGaetano
https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.24009 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2605.24009 https://arxiv.org/html/2605.24009
arXiv:2605.24009v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is an important variable for forecasting severe weather and understanding deep convection and precipitation. The latest versions of the Global Forecast System (GFS) and related Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) have exhibited a bias towards underestimating CAPE values during the summertime. We train an artificial intelligence (AI) diffusion model to improve the skill and uncertainty quantification of afternoon 6-hour lead time ensemble forecasts over the United States. Our model takes a GFS CAPE forecast as input and outputs an ensemble that significantly outperforms both GFS and GEFS 6-hour forecasts on root mean square error, continuous ranked probability score, and Brier score. We propose a two-stage training pipeline to leverage both a larger historical GFS forecast dataset and a smaller historical GEFS dataset, despite the two using initialization and parameterization schemes that vary over time. We also show that classifier-free guidance can be used to control the skill and spread of the forecasts. We then demonstrate the versatility of our framework by adding aerosol optical depths (AODs) of black carbon, organic carbon, dust, sea salt, and sulfates as additional input features. Aerosols can invigorate or suppress convection depending on atmospheric conditions. Our AI models effectively incorporate aerosols to produce improved CAPE forecasts. We interpret the model components by using permutation feature importance to rank the influence of the different AODs and find that black carbon, organic carbon, and sulfate aerosols have a greater impact on the model's CAPE predictions than sea salt and dust aerosols.
toXiv_bot_toot
Me ocorreu aqui agora que essa foto do #PaulErdös com o #TerenceTao é tipo a foto do Messi com o Yamal que circulou alguns dias antes da final da copa rs.
Guten Morgen,
huh, immer noch warm, erst mal das Fenster auf und es strömt tatsächlich schön kühle Luft herein.
Heute liegt nichts Besonderes an, Die Zeiteinteilung des Tages ist bis auf wenige Punkte frei. Ich kann mich auch wieder an den See verkrümeln.
Schönen Montag und stressfreie Woche! :coffeepot:🙂