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Sequential Counterfactual Inference for Temporal Clinical Data: Addressing the Time Traveler Dilemma
Jingya Cheng, Alaleh Azhir, Jiazi Tian, Hossein Estiri
https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.21168 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2602.21168 https://arxiv.org/html/2602.21168
arXiv:2602.21168v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Counterfactual inference enables clinicians to ask "what if" questions about patient outcomes, but standard methods assume feature independence and simultaneous modifiability -- assumptions violated by longitudinal clinical data. We introduce the Sequential Counterfactual Framework, which respects temporal dependencies in electronic health records by distinguishing immutable features (chronic diagnoses) from controllable features (lab values) and modeling how interventions propagate through time. Applied to 2,723 COVID-19 patients (383 Long COVID heart failure cases, 2,340 matched controls), we demonstrate that 38-67% of patients with chronic conditions would require biologically impossible counterfactuals under naive methods. We identify a cardiorenal cascade (CKD -> AKI -> HF) with relative risks of 2.27 and 1.19 at each step, illustrating temporal propagation that sequential -- but not naive -- counterfactuals can capture. Our framework transforms counterfactual explanation from "what if this feature were different?" to "what if we had intervened earlier, and how would that propagate forward?" -- yielding clinically actionable insights grounded in biological plausibility.
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Adobe updates Acrobat to add new AI features, including presentation generation, file editing, and creating podcast summaries from docs stored in Adobe Spaces (Ivan Mehta/TechCrunch)
https://techcrunch.com/2026/01/21/adobe-acr…

Adobe Acrobat now lets you edit files using prompts, generate podcast summaries | TechCrunch
Adobe is adding AI tools to Acrobat, including the ability to generate podcast summaries of files, create presentations, and a way for users to edit files using prompts.

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Good Morning #Canada
We still have 20 rivers to highlight in this #CanadaRivers series and a couple of things stand out. We are now listing rivers that are close to 1,000 kms, and despite the size there are many I've never heard of. Add in several million lakes and you gotta agree that Canada is blessed with #Hydrology features.
The Thelon River, called Akilinik in Inuit, is #21 on our list and stretches 904 kms across northern Canada. Its source is Whitefish Lake in the Northwest Territories, and it flows east to Baker Lake in Nunavut, ultimately draining into Hudson Bay. It is fed by a watershed of 142,400 km2 but with a vertical drop of less than 400 metres over its length it is not suitable for hydroelectric development. The Thelon is one of the easiest tundra rivers to paddle, with a steady current, few rapids and no portages. It therefore is a destination for paddling vacations and tourists looking to experience Canada's north.
#CanadaIsAwesome #Adventure #Canoeing
https://paddlingmag.com/trips/destinations/thelon-river/