@bibbleco@infosec.exchange2024-05-13 15:13:16
Another great example of (charitably) Kruger-Dunning (or more realistically, towering naivity) among the vljmstoligy community.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2024/may/08/hopeless-and-broken-why-the-worlds-top-climate-scientists-are-in-despair
The reason GHG emissions still aren't falling far or fast enough to avoid global catastrophe is "lack of political will" and "corporate vested interests". The fact is that governments of even nations with undemocratic and tyrannical regimes are in the hands of the populace in the medium to long term. How long would, say, Putin remain in power if he announced a ten year programme to tax meat to the point it's a rare luxury reserved for the wealthy, to transition from petrol and diesel fuels, a crash programme to dump coal and gas for power generation and heating and roll out renewables, abolishing hidden subsidies for concrete manufactures to ensure the the emission externalities are priced in, virtual bans on civilian aviation and so on? Certainly there'd be an interesting Keynesian multiplier effect from all the expenditure and investment*, but he'd still be dangling from a metaphorical lamppost within a few years.
*actually the debt incurred would cause huge inflation.
The other big problem, still, is lack of public understanding. There's "awareness", but here are still huge misapprehension. Eg., many people still seem to think thst net zero would mean a return to mid-20thC climates; people still don't grasp the consequences of passing major tipping thresholds, or that many climate elements (ice sheet melting, ocean circulations,..) have multi-decadal or multi-century lags before reaching a final equilibrium. And they still have no clue how fragile civilisation is, or what life in 2100 -- or 2050! - will be like.
I remain more optimistic than I was 25y ago when I first started taking an interest, though. 2.5°C still looks plausible to me, if current reductions continue to accelerate, given a few weather megadisasters to chivvy us along.
