Tootfinder

Robust forecast aggregation via additional queries
Rafael Frongillo, Mary Monroe, Eric Neyman, Bo Waggoner
https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.05271 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.05271 https://arxiv.org/html/2512.05271
arXiv:2512.05271v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: We study the problem of robust forecast aggregation: combining expert forecasts with provable accuracy guarantees compared to the best possible aggregation of the underlying information. Prior work shows strong impossibility results, e.g. that even under natural assumptions, no aggregation of the experts' individual forecasts can outperform simply following a random expert (Neyman and Roughgarden, 2022).
In this paper, we introduce a more general framework that allows the principal to elicit richer information from experts through structured queries. Our framework ensures that experts will truthfully report their underlying beliefs, and also enables us to define notions of complexity over the difficulty of asking these queries. Under a general model of independent but overlapping expert signals, we show that optimal aggregation is achievable in the worst case with each complexity measure bounded above by the number of agents $n$. We further establish tight tradeoffs between accuracy and query complexity: aggregation error decreases linearly with the number of queries, and vanishes when the "order of reasoning" and number of agents relevant to a query is $\omega(\sqrt{n})$. These results demonstrate that modest extensions to the space of expert queries dramatically strengthen the power of robust forecast aggregation. We therefore expect that our new query framework will open up a fruitful line of research in this area.
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Sometimes i have the feeling that AI results in Google Search are just a placeholder. Results are often awful and incomparable with using the paid version of Gemini 3 with the same query. Google is betting that models will improve and become cheaper so that they can offer a better experience in the future.
#AI #Search

The #EuroSkyLive name badges have a QR code that opens in Flashes.app and links you to a starter pack of attendees.
This is great! Going to steal this idea for #ATmosphereConf

Series A, Episode 13 - Orac
TRAVIS: Right. [They go down some steps into a tunnel. Travis looks around.]
SERVALAN: Travis!
TRAVIS: Huh?
SERVALAN: It's this way. [They walk through wet tunnels, there are loud breathing sounds in the background.]
https://blake.torpidity.net/m/113/94<…

I know everyone’s already dragging the living shit out of this already but 🤷🏻‍♀️:
All ICE/BP should have:
Clearly marked vehicles
Clearly marked names on uniforms (large TEXT for both)
ID/badges
Dismissal and/or prosecution for failing to comply.
QR codes are just unneeded “tech” complication
The current regime talks a lot of shit about ID being required to vote, but is fine with armed agents of the govt having less ID than a teen trying (and failing) to…

Just finished "Kirby's Lessons for Falling (In Love)" by Laura Gao. I'd previously read her autobiographical graphic novel "Messy Roots" which was excellent, and this book continues that trend. Yet another complicated look at a Chinese-American immigrant experience, wrapped into a queer romance with a dose of spirituality in there as well. I think the background metaphor of falling is really strong, and gets used in so many senses it's beautiful.
#AmReading #ReadingNow

reading a prelim paper on scaling up gpu-accelerated database query engines and feeling kinda gobsmacked at where that world is at
i remember when we built a “massive” memory machine at princeton with … i think it was 256 MB of RAM. (it sat idle except when ken thompson was logged in and building hash tables for chess endgames which was most of the time)

The American patrol satellite had the targets in its sights:
two recently launched Chinese spacecraft flying through one of the most sensitive neighborhoods in space.
Like any good tactical fighter,
the American spacecraft, known as USA 270, approached from behind,
so that the sun would be at its back, illuminating the quarry.
But then one of the Chinese satellites countered by slowing down.
As USA 270 zipped by, the Chinese satellite dropped in behind its…

Military satellites dogfighting as tensions escalate in orbit
U.S. and Chinese satellites routinely spy on each other in orbit, rehearsing for more aggressive operations in the event of war.

https://www.quora.com/How-should-UK-public-bodies-best-manage-the-use-of-AI-follow…

the "woke games detector"'s ULTRAKILL problem: there are some games they don't like just because the developer is vaguely progressive and the fandom is largely queer and makes a lot gay fanart of the characters but they have to come up with some 4d chess problem with the game itself
like ah yes the game about robot killing demons in hell and extracting their blood is woke because there's a blahaj easter egg and not because there's shitload of V1 x Gabriel yao…