@Techmeme@techhub.socialChainalysis and TRM Labs estimate that $2.7B was stolen in crypto in 2025 in total, up from $2.2B in 2024; the biggest hack was the $1.4B breach at Bybit (Lorenzo Franceschi-Bicchierai/TechCrunch)
https://techcrunch.com/2025/12/23/hackers-stole-…
@cosmos4u@scicomm.xyzThe size of #3I/ATLAS from non-gravitational acceleration: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.18341 -> "we find diameters between 820 meters and 1050 meters [...] reliable estimates of the mass loss rate at other stages of the comet's trajectory will substantially reduce the systematic uncertainty in this estimate."
@scott@carfree.city"But as you can see, the programs do come at a cost... we estimate about $27.4m a year goes to the administrative costs and also the projected fare revenue reduction."
I'm waiting for the slide where they estimate the much higher cost of all the unmetered parking spaces across the city, and of turning off meters at 6pm and on Sundays. I'm sure that'll definitely be later in this presentation, right?
@Mediagazer@mstdn.socialWAN-IFRA: news publications globally had an estimated combined revenue of $125.7B in 2025, down 0.01% YoY; print still accounted for 65% of total revenue (Charlotte Tobitt/Press Gazette)
https://pressgazette.co…
@Sustainable2050@mastodon.energyFamiliar story: Cost estimate for the first 6 new #nuclear reactors in France up by 40% in three years. And that's 13 years before the first one would be completed (not accounting for delays).
Btw, that €73 billion is in Euros of 2020; better known as €85 billion now.
@memeorandum@universeodon.comTrump's "Department of War" rebrand could cost $125 million (Colin Demarest/Axios)
https://www.axios.com/2026/01/15/trump-department-of-war-rebrand-cost-estimate
http://www.memeorandum.com/260115/p79#a260115p79
@krispijn@social.sargasso.nlDe volgende klap voor de Europese autofabrikanten en hun voorliefde voor diesel, LNG en waterstof...
China's shift to #ElectricTrucks may reshape global fuel demand (diesel and LNG): "While electric trucks are two to three times more expensive than diesel ones and cost roughly 18% more than LNG trucks, their higher energy efficiency and lower costs can save owners an esti…
@LaChasseuse@mastodon.scot@… I see that a painting of Dr John Rae, owned by the Hudson Bay Co is up for sale - relatively reasonable price...crowdfund?
https://www.
@Techmeme@techhub.socialMETR: Claude Opus 4.5 has a 50% task completion time horizon of about 4 hours and 49 minutes, more than double that of Claude Opus 4 released earlier this year (@metr_evals)
https://x.com/metr_evals/status/2002203627377574113
@erc_bk@fosstodon.orgHow spatial sampling methods affect the variance of your mean estimate when spatial autocorrelation is present.
https://dosull.github.io/posts/2025-11-14-gia-chapter-2A-spatial-autocorrelation/
@primonatura@mstdn.social"Researchers slightly lower study's estimate of drop in global income due to climate change"
#Climate #ClimateChange
@cdarwin@c.imFor decades, some big polluters were allowed to estimate their emissions using methods the government knew were often unreliable.
Real Pollution Levels: Air monitors at coke manufacturers, chemical plants and other industrial facilities showed far higher emissions than the estimates, records viewed by ProPublica show.
Trump Halts New Rules: The Trump administration has halted rules requiring more than 130 industrial plants to install air monitors and comply with new e…
@teledyn@mstdn.cayou need to catch the 9:44, and if you hurry you can just make it, only, crap, forgot your keys, and to go back will take at least 5 minutes.
so you get the sched and historical records, and you find there is quite a bit of variation so you crunch the numbers and figure the odds are still reasonable it will be at least ten minutes late. You weigh your probabilities and decide to go.
Meanwhile I call a friend who is on that train and ask their estimate. I now have a better estimate? After my call, they ask a porter and get another even better estimate?
Meanwhile, 12km down the rails a protest has blocked a crossing, determined to hold that train at least until the police arrive.
Probability is a subjective measure of ignorance 😅
@joe@toot.worksOnce a month I get an email from Carfax saying how much they believe my car to be worth and they estimate the number of miles on it as 95,659 (more than double what's actually on it). It's a great car but I don't see anybody driving that much in any car.
@arXiv_csLG_bot@mastoxiv.pageEstimating Spatially Resolved Radiation Fields Using Neural Networks
Felix Lehner, Pasquale Lombardo, Susana Castillo, Oliver Hupe, Marcus Magnor
https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.17654 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.17654 https://arxiv.org/html/2512.17654
arXiv:2512.17654v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: We present an in-depth analysis on how to build and train neural networks to estimate the spatial distribution of scattered radiation fields for radiation protection dosimetry in medical radiation fields, such as those found in Interventional Radiology and Cardiology. Therefore, we present three different synthetically generated datasets with increasing complexity for training, using a Monte-Carlo Simulation application based on Geant4. On those datasets, we evaluate convolutional and fully connected architectures of neural networks to demonstrate which design decisions work well for reconstructing the fluence and spectra distributions over the spatial domain of such radiation fields. All used datasets as well as our training pipeline are published as open source in separate repositories.
toXiv_bot_toot
@zachleat@zachleat.com@… yeah, absolutely — I’d take FTE over runway. But with both you can better estimate how much time is left on the VC Hourglass of Funding™
@inthehands@hachyderm.ioReally hard to tell how large because it was spread out along the length of the street.
Most accurate crowd estimate I’ve heard so far is “goodness that was a lot of people.”
@memeorandum@universeodon.comIMPORTANT: *Official* avg. 2026 premium hikes will likely be lower than KFF's 114% estimate for three critical reasons... (Charles Gaba/ACA Signups)
https://acasignups.net/26/01/02/important-official-avg-2026-premium-hikes-will-likely-be-lower-kffs-114-estimate-three
http://www.memeorandum.com/260102/p51#a260102p51
@seeingwithsound@mas.to#Cortigent: "estimate that the total addressable market for Orion is approximately 82,000 persons in the United States", "quality of the artificial vision created by both the Argus II and Orion systems varies from patient to patient."
@mxp@mastodon.acm.orgJust finished and submitted my “preliminary statement” for the foreign funding agency. #Orgmode tells me that I’ve worked for 3:52 on this task, which means that my estimate (half a day) was pretty accurate…
#AcademicChatter
@fortune@social.linux.pizzaThe Vet Who Surprised A Cow
In the course of his duties in August 1977, a Dutch veterinary
surgeon was required to treat an ailing cow. To investigate its internal
gases he inserted a tube into that end of the animal not capable of facial
expression and struck a match. The jet of flame set fire first to some
bales of hay and then to the whole farm causing damage estimate at L45,000.
The vet was later fined L140 for starting a fire in a manner surprising to
@pre@boing.worldLots of doors now hung. Apparently the "panel" doors will really just be solid boards with edges glued on. He reckons they will paint before they do that bit.
And with that the carpenter is off to Egypt for a week. Back a week on Tuesday to build all the window doors for the top.
Meanwhile the other builder will be in doing the painting and other smaller stuff.
Estimate is to finish two weeks tomorrow. 🤞
@brichapman@mastodon.socialColorado is making heat pumps actually affordable. The state just launched rebates up to $14,000 for energy efficiency upgrades, with $8,000 specifically for heat pumps.
This matters because heat pump sales already surpass gas furnaces nationwide, and new cold-climate tech means they work even in freezing temps. It's a real pathway to cut emissions and ditch fossil fuels.
@cdarwin@c.imThe $59 million price tag for
"Operation Midway Blitz"
A Tribune analysis of the Trump administration's Chicago-area immigration crackdown
provides one of the first examinations of Operation Midway Blitz’s financial impact on the federal government.
The back-of-the-envelope estimate is a conservative analysis of the full costs.
Federal officials are not eager to address the fiscal cost of
"Operation Midway Blitz"
-- the months…
@primonatura@mstdn.social"Ofgem approves GBP 10.3 billion investment in UK transmission grid"
#UK #UnitedKingdom #Energy
@Mediagazer@mstdn.socialSpotify Wrapped's Listening Ages sparks widespread social media discussion and follows in Spotify's tradition of issuing gimmicky, loosely data-backed offerings (Madison Malone Kircher/New York Times)
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/03/style/spotify-wrappe…
@seeingwithsound@mas.toObject recognition from sparse simulated phosphenes and curved segments https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0042698925001798 "lower bound estimate on the minimal number of phosphenes needed to recognize objects" in uncluttered views;
@Techmeme@techhub.socialDuolingo stock falls 25% after saying it expects bookings to range between $329.5M and $335.5M this quarter, falling short of a $344.3M estimate (Samantha Subin/CNBC)
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/duolingo-duol-stock-q3-earnings-2025.html
@arXiv_csGT_bot@mastoxiv.pageBeyond Revenue and Welfare: Counterfactual Analysis of Spectrum Auctions with Application to Canada's 3800MHz Allocation
Sara Jalili Shani, Kris Joseph, Michael B. McNally, James R. Wright
https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.08106 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.08106 https://arxiv.org/html/2512.08106
arXiv:2512.08106v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Spectrum auctions are the primary mechanism through which governments allocate scarce radio frequencies, with outcomes that shape competition, coverage, and innovation in telecommunications markets. While traditional models of spectrum auctions often rely on strong equilibrium assumptions, we take a more parsimonious approach by modeling bidders as myopic and straightforward: in each round, firms simply demand the bundle that maximizes their utility given current prices. Despite its simplicity, this model proves effective in predicting the outcomes of Canada's 2023 auction of 3800 MHz spectrum licenses. Using detailed round-by-round bidding data, we estimate bidders' valuations through a linear programming framework and validate that our model reproduces key features of the observed allocation and price evolution. We then use these estimated valuations to simulate a counterfactual auction under an alternative mechanism that incentivizes deployment in rural and remote regions, aligning with one of the key objectives set out in the Canadian Telecommunications Act. The results show that the proposed mechanism substantially improves population coverage in underserved areas. These findings demonstrate that a behavioral model with minimal assumptions is sufficient to generate reliable counterfactual predictions, making it a practical tool for policymakers to evaluate how alternative auction designs may influence future outcomes. In particular, our study demonstrates a method for counterfactual mechanism design, providing a framework to evaluate how alternative auction rules could advance policy goals such as equitable deployment across Canada.
toXiv_bot_toot
@Techmeme@techhub.socialDeFi protocol Balancer says its V2 Composable Stable Pools suffered an exploit, which security experts estimate resulted in total losses worth about $128M (Ryan S. Gladwin/Decrypt)
https://decrypt.co/347173/balancer-exploited-128-million-across…
@arXiv_csGT_bot@mastoxiv.pageMulti-agent learning under uncertainty: Recurrence vs. concentration
Kyriakos Lotidis, Panayotis Mertikopoulos, Nicholas Bambos, Jose Blanchet
https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.08132 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.08132 https://arxiv.org/html/2512.08132
arXiv:2512.08132v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: In this paper, we examine the convergence landscape of multi-agent learning under uncertainty. Specifically, we analyze two stochastic models of regularized learning in continuous games -- one in continuous and one in discrete time with the aim of characterizing the long-run behavior of the induced sequence of play. In stark contrast to deterministic, full-information models of learning (or models with a vanishing learning rate), we show that the resulting dynamics do not converge in general. In lieu of this, we ask instead which actions are played more often in the long run, and by how much. We show that, in strongly monotone games, the dynamics of regularized learning may wander away from equilibrium infinitely often, but they always return to its vicinity in finite time (which we estimate), and their long-run distribution is sharply concentrated around a neighborhood thereof. We quantify the degree of this concentration, and we show that these favorable properties may all break down if the underlying game is not strongly monotone -- underscoring in this way the limits of regularized learning in the presence of persistent randomness and uncertainty.
toXiv_bot_toot
@Techmeme@techhub.socialAmazon raises its forecast for capital expenditures to $125B in 2025, up from its earlier estimate of $118B, and says that number will likely increase in 2026 (Annie Palmer/CNBC)
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/30/amazon-amzn-q3-earnings-report-2025.html
