Tootfinder

Another unforeseen effect of COVID-19 vaccination has been detected.
Wait for it.
It reduces the incidence of autism (and other neurodevelopmental disorders).

COVID-19 infection during pregnancy is associated with higher rates of autism and neurodevelopmental diagnoses
A recent study found that infection with SARS-CoV-2 during pregnancy is associated with a higher risk of autism and neurodevelopment disorders. This is yet another reason why vaccination during pregna

Medical societies jointly launch infection prevention initiative:
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/antimicrobial-stewardship/medical-societies-jointly-launch-infection-prevention-initiative

Detection of Chagas Disease from the ECG: The George B. Moody PhysioNet Challenge 2025
Matthew A. Reyna (Department of Biomedical Informatics, Emory University, Atlanta, USA), Zuzana Koscova (Department of Biomedical Informatics, Emory University, Atlanta, USA), Jan Pavlus (Department of Biomedical Informatics, Emory University, Atlanta, USA), Soheil Saghafi (Department of Biomedical Informatics, Emory University, Atlanta, USA), James Weigle (Department of Biomedical Informatics, Emory…

Detection of Chagas Disease from the ECG: The George B. Moody PhysioNet Challenge 2025
Objective: Chagas disease is a parasitic infection that is endemic to South America, Central America, and, more recently, the U.S., primarily transmitted by insects. Chronic Chagas disease can cause cardiovascular diseases and digestive problems. Serological testing capacities for Chagas disease are limited, but Chagas cardiomyopathy often manifests in ECGs, providing an opportunity to prioritize patients for testing and treatment. Approach: The George B. Moody PhysioNet Challenge 2025 invites …

An infection-responsive collagen-based wet-spun textile fibre for wound monitoring
Jonathon Gorman, Charles Brooker, Xinyu Li, Giuseppe Tronci
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.00015 h…

An infection-responsive collagen-based wet-spun textile fibre for wound monitoring
Wound infections are a significant clinical and socioeconomic challenge, contributing to delayed healing and increased wound chronicity. To enable early infection detection and inform therapeutic decisions, this study investigated the design of pH-responsive collagen fibres using a scalable wet spinning process, evaluating product suitability for textile dressings and resorbable sutures. Type I collagen was chemically functionalised with 4-vinylbenzyl chloride, enabling UV-induced crosslinking …

I'm having a bad mental health day -- really struggling to sustain either any consistent train of thought or any degree of mood stability.
It's *probably* just a virus infection and will *probably* pass, but it's very frightening and upsetting while it's happening.
Being mad just isn't fun.

Virus Infection Attack on LLMs: Your Poisoning Can Spread "VIA" Synthetic Data
Zi Liang, Qingqing Ye, Xuan Liu, Yanyun Wang, Jianliang Xu, Haibo Hu
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.23041

Virus Infection Attack on LLMs: Your Poisoning Can Spread "VIA" Synthetic Data
Synthetic data refers to artificial samples generated by models. While it has been validated to significantly enhance the performance of large language models (LLMs) during training and has been widely adopted in LLM development, potential security risks it may introduce remain uninvestigated. This paper systematically evaluates the resilience of synthetic-data-integrated training paradigm for LLMs against mainstream poisoning and backdoor attacks. We reveal that such a paradigm exhibits strong…

Spatial correlations in SIS processes on regular random graphs
Alexander Leibenzon, Samuel W. S. Johnson, Ruth E. Baker, Michael Assaf
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.25386 https://

Spatial correlations in SIS processes on regular random graphs
In network-based SIS models of infectious disease transmission, infection can only occur between directly connected individuals. This constraint naturally gives rise to spatial correlations between the states of neighboring nodes, as the infection status of connected individuals becomes interdependent. Although mean-field approximations are commonly invoked to simplify disease forecasting on networks, they fail to account for these correlations by assuming that infectious individuals are well-m…

Scientists Reveal Biological Basis of Long COVID Brain Fog #covid
https://scitechdaily.com/scientists-finally-reveal-biological-basis-of-long-covid-brain-fog…

Scientists Finally Reveal Biological Basis of Long COVID Brain Fog
Researchers employed a specialized brain imaging technique to identify a potential biomarker and therapeutic target for Long COVID. More than four years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists are still working to fully understand the lingering effects of infection with SARS-CoV-2. O

"The study’s authors emphasized that, as an observational study, the findings do not prove that covid-19 causes the conditions diagnosed in children, but rather signal an association between maternal infection and these outcomes. "
Covid in pregnancy tied to autism, developmental issues, study says - The Washington Post
https://archive.ph/eSFKO

@…
“This virus causes system-wide injury that accumulates with each infection: brain damage that undermines decision-making, immune dysregulation leading to infections like Kaposi sarcoma and tuberculosis in lymph nodes — the very signatures of HIV-AIDS now rising again — and cardiac injury with accelerated aging,” explains Bar-Yam.

Detecting disease progression from animal movement using hidden Markov models
Dongmin Kim, Th\'eo Michelot, Katherine Mertes, Jared A. Stabach, John Fieberg
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.21132

Detecting disease progression from animal movement using hidden Markov models
Understanding disease dynamics is crucial for managing wildlife populations and assessing spillover risk to domestic animals and humans, but infection data on free-ranging animals are difficult to obtain. Because pathogen and parasite infections can alter host movement, infection status may be inferred from animal trajectories. We present a hidden Markov model (HMM) framework that links observed movement behaviors to unobserved infection states, consistent with epidemiological compartmental mod…

Explainable AI for Infection Prevention and Control: Modeling CPE Acquisition and Patient Outcomes in an Irish Hospital with Transformers
Minh-Khoi Pham, Tai Tan Mai, Martin Crane, Rob Brennan, Marie E. Ward, Una Geary, Declan Byrne, Brian O Connell, Colm Bergin, Donncha Creagh, Nick McDonald, Marija Bezbradica
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.1…

Explainable AI for Infection Prevention and Control: Modeling CPE Acquisition and Patient Outcomes in an Irish Hospital with Transformers
Carbapenemase-Producing Enterobacteriace poses a critical concern for infection prevention and control in hospitals. However, predictive modeling of previously highlighted CPE-associated risks such as readmission, mortality, and extended length of stay (LOS) remains underexplored, particularly with modern deep learning approaches. This study introduces an eXplainable AI modeling framework to investigate CPE impact on patient outcomes from Electronic Medical Records data of an Irish hospital. We…

There's a study indicating that a cheap nasal spray that is already on the market (for allergies) can reduce Covid 19 infection risk by ~2/3rd, and also reduce other respiratorial infections. I'm somewhat torn between "too good to be true" and "any reason I shouldn't immediately buy and use this?"
Anyone read any insightful (and particularly: skeptical, caveats) takes on it?

Azelastine Nasal Spray for Prevention of SARS-CoV-2 Infections
This randomized clinical trial evaluates the efficacy of azelastine as a preexposure prophylaxis against SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory pathogens.

Crosslisted article(s) found for physics.app-ph. https://arxiv.org/list/physics.app-ph/new
[1/1]:
- An infection-responsive collagen-based wet-spun textile fibre for wound monitoring
Jonathon Gorman, Charles Brooker, Xinyu Li, Giuseppe Tronci

Observer-Based Source Localization in Tree Infection Networks via Laplace Transforms
Kesler O'Connor, Julia M. Jess, Devlin Costello, Manuel E. Lladser
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.09828

Observer-Based Source Localization in Tree Infection Networks via Laplace Transforms
We address the problem of localizing the source of infection in an undirected, tree-structured network under a susceptible-infected outbreak model. The infection propagates with independent random time increments (i.e., edge-delays) between neighboring nodes, while only the infection times of a subset of nodes can be observed. We show that a reduced set of observers may be sufficient, in the statistical sense, to localize the source and characterize its identifiability via the joint Laplace tra…

Stabilizing by steering: Enhancing bacterial motility by non-uniform diffusiophoresis
Viet Sang Doan, Ali Nikkhah, Sangwoo Shin
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.25770 https://

Stabilizing by steering: Enhancing bacterial motility by non-uniform diffusiophoresis
Bacteria are often required to navigate across confined spaces to reach desired destinations in biological and environmental systems, allowing critical functions in host-microbe symbiosis, infection, drug delivery, soil ecology, and soil bioremediation. While the canonical run-and-tumble motility is effective in finding targets under confinement, it may not represent the most ideal strategy due to the continuous monitoring of environmental cues and stochastic recorrection of their paths. Here, …

It is that time of the year for us senior citizens.
Wife and I have received our influenza shots and this weekend our COVID shots are scheduled.
Approximately 23 years ago I went through hell with influenza and complications. I contracted it just before my scheduled vaccination. Major lung infection and I ended up off work for six weeks. I don't remember Christmas that year and for several weeks at the beginning we told everyone they were not allowed to visit just in case …

Anyone want to finish this poem?
Xubuntu downloads section injection
Threatens users with crypto infection

Lung Infection Severity Prediction Using Transformers with Conditional TransMix Augmentation and Cross-Attention
Bouthaina Slika, Fadi Dornaika, Fares Bougourzi, Karim Hammoudi
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.06887

Lung Infection Severity Prediction Using Transformers with Conditional TransMix Augmentation and Cross-Attention
Lung infections, particularly pneumonia, pose serious health risks that can escalate rapidly, especially during pandemics. Accurate AI-based severity prediction from medical imaging is essential to support timely clinical decisions and optimize patient outcomes. In this work, we present a novel method applicable to both CT scans and chest X-rays for assessing lung infection severity. Our contributions are twofold: (i) QCross-Att-PVT, a Transformer-based architecture that integrates parallel enc…

In ant colonies infected by a tapeworm parasite, uninfected workers show signs of stress-related gene activity, in part because they're caring for infected nestmates (Photo by Matt Hamer, via AntWiki)
Parasite prevalence in a social host has colony-wide impacts on transcriptional activity and survival
https://doi.org/10.1093/ev…

Check out today's Metacurity for the most crucial cybersecurity developments you should know, including
--CISA plans to fire 54 employees despite court injunction,
--Google reports new ways threat actors can use AI in their attacks,
--KT accused of concealing BPFDoor infection,
--Meta earns $7b a year in scam ads,
--Hackers stole data from Hyundai AutoEver America,
--Chinese court sentences scam operators to death,
--NV ransomware attack took plac…

CISA plans to fire 54 employees despite court injunction
Google reports new ways threat actors can use AI in their attacks, KT accused of concealing BPFDoor infection, Meta earns $7b a year in scam ads, Hackers stole data from Hyundai AutoEver America, Chinese court sentences scam operators to death, NV ransomware attack took place in May, much more

The Trump administration is dismantling the last of the public commons.
It’s cutting billions to state programs tracking disease,
repealing emissions and drinking water regulations,
revoking hundreds of millions in funding for life-saving research,
canceling local food programs for schools and food banks,
rolling back vaccinations,
and shutting down the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC’s) Healthcare Infection Control Practices Advisory Commi…

“Make America Healthy Again” Aims to Make Public Health Your Private Responsibility
The message coming from the Trump administration is: “Take care of yourselves — because we won’t.”…

Thought Slime posted a video on Liberals and Charlie Kirk (linked in my post). It touched on a few ideas I've been wanting to explore more.
Why is it that, even though we talk "memes" going "viral" we are still talking about "Free Market of Ideas" as though ideas were inanimate objects we could handle and observe objectively? Perhaps that idea is it's own infection.
https://hexmhell.writeas.com/memetic-effluent-and-the-wet-market-of-ideas

13yo: "and at the end of art class they take our sketchbooks"
me: "that sucks"
13yo: "Yeah, it does."
13yo: "Anyway, I was trying to draw a staff but I was having problems with the feathers..." ⚚
me: "Hey, I have a Staph *infection*!"
13yo: 😐
me: "..In case you need a drawing reference or something"
13yo: 🤨
me: "...what?" 😇
13yo: "I'm afraid of what else you'…

🫣 Rare tissue samples reveal where HIV hides in different parts of body
#medicine

Rare tissue samples reveal where HIV hides in different parts of body
Researchers at Western and the University of Calgary have discovered how HIV hides in different parts of the body by embedding itself into the DNA of cells in a tissue-specific manner, offering new insights into why the virus is so difficult to eliminate and cure—even decades after infection and treatment.

#LazyWeb question regarding the dreaded NPM #GlassWorm or similar malware to harvest auth tokens:
To avoid a potential infection leading to harvesting the token usually stored in `~/.npmrc`, I changed that file's content to:
`//registry.npmjs.org/:_authToken=${NPM_TOKEN}`
...…

Australia's first national report on indoor air quality reveals urgent need for action #Australia

Australia's first national report on indoor air quality reveals urgent need for action
The "State of Indoor Air in Australia 2025" report, led by QUT's ARC Training Center for Advanced Building Systems Against Airborne Infection Transmission (THRIVE), highlights the health, well-being and economic risks posed by poor indoor air quality across homes, workplaces, schools, hospitals and public buildings.

Complex dynamics and pattern formation in a diffusive epidemic model with an infection-dependent recovery rate
Wael El Khateeb, Chanaka Kottegoda, Chunhua Shan
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.09000

Complex dynamics and pattern formation in a diffusive epidemic model with an infection-dependent recovery rate
A diffusive epidemic model with an infection-dependent recovery rate is formulated in this paper. Multiple constant steady states and spatially homogeneous periodic solutions are first proven by bifur cation analysis of the reaction kinetics. It is shown that the model exhibits diffusion-driven instability, where the infected population acts as an activator and the susceptible population functions as an in hibitor. The faster movement of the susceptible class will induce the spatial and spa…

Behavioral-feedback SIR epidemic model: analysis and control
Martina Alutto, Leonardo Cianfanelli, Giacomo Como, Fabio Fagnani, Francesca Parise
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.12257

Behavioral-feedback SIR epidemic model: analysis and control
This paper investigates a behavioral-feedback SIR model in which the infection rate adapts dynamically based on the fractions of susceptible and infected individuals. We introduce an invariant of motion and we characterize the peak of infection. We further examine the system under a threshold constraint on the infection level. Based on this analysis, we formulate an optimal control problem to keep the infection curve below a healthcare capacity threshold while minimizing the economic cost. For …

We need the French concept.
L'infection mentale commence
avec des douleurs lancinantes
tourmente ardemment
le corps soupirant, affaiblit,
par attaques de vertiges
la faiblesse d'une dure rupture
la chair, tout au long, violée
les bubons de la mort rouge.
https://youtu.be/QEc4zQ80NFs

Bird flu cases are spiking earlier than experts expected — and that could cause egg prices to skyrocket | The Independent
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/bird-flu-poultry-egg-prices-infection-b2843082.html

Phew, it's been a long time since I've really been online—a nasty infection completely knocked me out for more than two weeks. But now I'm back to do Linux stuff! Let's go!
#linux #opensource

“The spread of dangerous infections that do not respond to antibiotics has been increasing by
as much as 15 percent a year”,
says the WHO.
“The less people have access to quality care,
the more they’re likely to suffer from drug-resistant infection.”
https://kottke.org/25/10/0047706-th…

Real-time identification and control of influential pandemic regions using graph signal variation
Sudeepini Darapu, Subrata Ghosh, Dibakar Ghosh, Chittaranjan Hens, Santosh Nannuru
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.10281

Real-time identification and control of influential pandemic regions using graph signal variation
The global spread of pandemics is facilitated by the mobility of populations, transforming localized infections into widespread phenomena. To contain it, timely identification of influential regions that accelerate this process is necessary. In this work, we model infection as a temporally evolving graph signal and propose graph signal variation-based metrics to capture spatio-temporal changes. Both graph domain and time domain locality are modeled. Based on this metric, we propose an online al…

🇺🇦 #NowPlaying on KEXP's #SeekAndDestroy
Ripping Remains:
🎵 Rub My Infection on You
#RippingRemains
#newRelease 🆕 single
https://rippingremains.bandcamp.com/track/rub-my-infection-on-you
https://open.spotify.com/track/2RzmHTP1Sdfo6X9qIEvgBr
Please 🔁 BOOST to share what you like
- your followers don't see if you ⭐ favourite a post

Na, meint Ihr die Stiko liest das irgendwann? @… https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-study-f…

New Study Finds Annual COVID Vaccines Protect People against Severe Disease, Even with Prior Immunity
A new study shows that receiving an updated COVID vaccine reduced people’s risk of severe disease and death in all age groups, regardless of immunity from prior infection or vaccination

Optimal Control of an SIR Model with Noncompliance as a Social Contagion
Chloe Ngo, Christian Parkinson, Weinan Wang
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.09075 https://

Optimal Control of an SIR Model with Noncompliance as a Social Contagion
We propose and study a compartmental model for epidemiology with human behavioral effects. Specifically, our model incorporates governmental prevention measures aimed at lowering the disease infection rate, but we split the population into those who comply with the measures and those who do not comply and therefore do not receive the reduction in infectivity. We then allow the attitude of noncompliance to spread as a social contagion parallel to the disease. We derive the reproductive ratio for…

I2E2S2R Rumor Spreading Model in Homogeneous Network with Hesitating and Forgetting Mechanisms
Md. Nahid Hasan, Sujana Azmi Polin, Saiful Islam, Chandra Nath Podder
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.10672

I2E2S2R Rumor Spreading Model in Homogeneous Network with Hesitating and Forgetting Mechanisms
The spreading and controlling of rumors have great impacts on our society. The transmission of infectious diseases and the spreading of rumors have some common scenarios. Like cross-infection propagation of diseases, two or many kinds of rumors or information may spread at the same time. In this paper, we propose a novel I2E2S2R rumor-spreading model in a homogeneous network. The rumor-free equilibrium, as well as the basic reproduction number, have been calculated from the mean-field equations…

Crosslisted article(s) found for math.PR. https://arxiv.org/list/math.PR/new
[1/1]:
- Observer-Based Source Localization in Tree Infection Networks via Laplace Transforms
Kesler O'Connor, Julia M. Jess, Devlin Costello, Manuel E. Lladser

Researchers find spyware on phones belonging to Kenyan filmmakers https://therecord.media/researchers-spyware-kenya-filmmaker-phone

PDE-Based Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling for Event Spread, with Application to COVID-19 Infection
Mengqi Cen, Xuejing Meng, X. Joan Hu, Juxin Liu, Jianhong Wu
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.13174

PDE-Based Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling for Event Spread, with Application to COVID-19 Infection
We extended the Wikle's Bayesian hierarchical model based on a diffusion-reaction equation [Wikle, 2003] to investigate the COVID-19 spatio-temporal spread events across the USA from Mar 2020 to Feb 2022. Our model incorporated an advection term to account for the intra-state spread trend. We applied a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to obtain samples from the posterior distribution of the parameters. We implemented the approach via the collection of the COVID-19 infections across the st…

Changes in Liver Fibrosis in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Treated with Pegylated Interferon Combined with Oral Antiviral Agents: A 48-Week Observation from a Prospective Cohort Study
Zhao Jinhua
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.15854

Changes in Liver Fibrosis in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Treated with Pegylated Interferon Combined with Oral Antiviral Agents: A 48-Week Observation from a Prospective Cohort Study
Background and Aims: Pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN) combined with oral antiviral agents is currently the most widely used and highly effective treatment regimen for chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. While effectively suppressing HBV replication, its impact on liver histopathological fibrosis and inflammation remains a critical concern for clinicians and patients. Methods : A total of 625 patients who completed 48 weeks of PEG-IFN combined with oral antiviral therapy were enrolled in th…

Identifying Asymptomatic Nodes in Network Epidemics using Graph Neural Networks
Conrado Catarcione Pinto, Amanda Camacho Novaes de Oliveira, Rodrigo Sapienza Luna, Daniel Ratton Figueiredo
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.02568

Identifying Asymptomatic Nodes in Network Epidemics using Graph Neural Networks
Infected individuals in some epidemics can remain asymptomatic while still carrying and transmitting the infection. These individuals contribute to the spread of the epidemic and pose a significant challenge to public health policies. Identifying asymptomatic individuals is critical for measuring and controlling an epidemic, but periodic and widespread testing of healthy individuals is often too costly. This work tackles the problem of identifying asymptomatic individuals considering a classic …

Crosslisted article(s) found for physics.bio-ph. https://arxiv.org/list/physics.bio-ph/new
[1/1]:
- Multicritical Infection Spreading
Leone V. Luzzatto, Juan Felipe Barrera L\'opez, Istv\'an A. Kov\'acs

More than 7 million people worldwide, mostly in Latin America, are estimated to be infected with Trypanosoma cruzi, the parasite that causes Chagas disease.
It can be transmitted by the triatomine bug (vector-borne), as well as orally (food-borne), during pregnancy or birth (congenital), through blood/blood products, organ transplantation and laboratory accidents.
Chagas disease is curable if antiparasitic treatment is initiated early, in the acute phase. In chronic infection, the…

Composite method for fast computation of individual level spatial epidemic models
Yirao Zhang, Rob Deardon, Lorna Deeth
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.04660 https://

Composite method for fast computation of individual level spatial epidemic models
Individual-level models, also known as ILMs, are commonly used in epidemics modelling, as they can flexibly incorporate individual-level covariates that influence susceptibility and transmissibility upon infection. However, inference for ILMs is computationally intensive, especially as the total population size increases and additional covariates are incorporated. We propose a composite method, the composite ILM (C-ILM), that clusters the population into minimally-interfered subpopulations, wit…

Travel Bans vs. Social Distancing: A Mathematical Analysis
Christian Borgs, Karissa Huang, Geng Zhao
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.08895 https://arxiv.org/pdf…

Travel Bans vs. Social Distancing: A Mathematical Analysis
As the world grows increasingly connected, infectious disease transmission and outbreaks become a pressing global concern for public health officials and policymakers. While policy interventions to contain and prevent the spread of disease have been proposed and implemented, there has been little rigorous quantitative analysis of the effectiveness of such interventions. In this paper, we study the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infection process on a dynamic network model that models two …

Stochastic Compartment Model of Epidemic Spreading in Complex Networks with Mortality and Resetting
Thomas M. Michelitsch, Bernard Collet, Michael Bestehorn, Alejandro P. Riascos, Andrzej F. Nowakowski
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.06039

Stochastic Compartment Model of Epidemic Spreading in Complex Networks with Mortality and Resetting
We propose an epidemic compartment model, which includes mortality caused by the disease, but excludes demographic birth and death processes. Individuals are represented by random walkers, which are in one of the following states (compartments) S (susceptible to infection), E (exposed: infected but not infectious corresponding to the latency period), I (infected and infectious), R (recovered, immune), D (dead). The disease is transmitted with a certain probability at contacts of I to S walkers.…

Heterogeneous immune recovery after viral response through a dynamical model of feedback-driven persistence and clearance
Xiaoxin Wang, Kai Kang, Leyi Zhang, Changjing Zhuge
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.05161

Heterogeneous immune recovery after viral response through a dynamical model of feedback-driven persistence and clearance
Viral infections trigger complex immune responses with heterogeneous outcomes shaped by nonlinear feedbacks. An ordinary differential equation model is developed to investigate immune response dynamics during viral infection, incorporating six modules: viral load, innate immunity, cellular immunity, humoral immunity, immune suppression, and IL-6 levels. Bifurcation analysis reveals that under continuous viral exposure, when viral clearance rate and intrinsic viral death rate satisfy specific co…

Finding the Best Route During the Pandemic Disease
Amirsadegh Mirgalooyebayat, Farzad Didehvar
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.02396 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2510.…

Finding the Best Route During the Pandemic Disease
This article presents a mathematical model for identifying the safest travel routes during a pandemic by minimizing disease contraction risks, such as COVID-19. We formulate this as the LEAST INFECTION PROBABILITY PATH (LIPP) problem, which optimizes routes between two nodes in a transportation network based on minimal disease transmission probability. Our model evaluates risk factors including environmental density, likelihood of encountering carriers, and exposure duration across multiple tra…

Temperature and Competition: Drivers in the Ecological Dynamics of Aedes Mosquitoes and Dengue Spread
Santiago Andr\'es Villamil Chac\'on, Mauricio Santos-Vega
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.10785 …

Temperature and Competition: Drivers in the Ecological Dynamics of Aedes Mosquitoes and Dengue Spread
Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease common in tropical areas, is spread by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Temperature changes driven by climate affect vector ecology and expand regions of species coexistence. The combined effect of temperature and larval competition on mosquito dynamics and dengue transmission is unclear. We built a deterministic model with temperature-dependent parameters to study larval-stage interactions, linked with a SEIR framework for human infection. We assessed …

Estimating Global HIV Prevalence in Key Populations: A Cross-Population Hierarchical Modeling Approach
Jiahao Zhang, Keith Sabin, Le Bao
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.10664 https:/…

Estimating Global HIV Prevalence in Key Populations: A Cross-Population Hierarchical Modeling Approach
Key populations at high risk of HIV infection are critical for understanding and monitoring HIV epidemics, but global estimation is hampered by sparse, uneven data. We analyze data from 199 countries for female sex workers (FSW), men who have sex with men (MSM), and people who inject drugs (PWID) over 2011-2021, and introduce a cross-population hierarchical model that borrows strength across countries, years, and populations. The model combines region- and population-specific means with country…

Large deviations in non-Markovian stochastic epidemics
Matan Shmunik, Michael Assaf
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.09480 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.09480

Large deviations in non-Markovian stochastic epidemics
We develop a framework for non-Markovian SIR and SIS models beyond mean field, utilizing the continuous-time random walk formalism. Using a gamma distribution for the infection and recovery inter-event times as a test case, we derive asymptotical late-time master equations with effective memory kernels and obtain analytical predictions for the final outbreak size distribution in the SIR model, and quasistationary distribution and disease lifetime in the SIS model. We show that increasing memory…

Daily Profile of COVID-19 Infections in Germany, throughout the Pandemic
Derek Marsh
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.05721 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2510.05721

Daily Profile of COVID-19 Infections in Germany, throughout the Pandemic
Progress of the COVID-19 pandemic was quantified, in the first instance, using the daily number of positive cases recorded by the national public health authorities. Averaged over a seven-day window, the daily incidence of COVID-19 in Germany reveals clear sections of exponential growth or decay in propagation of infection. Comparing with incidence profiles according to onset-of-symptoms shows that reporting of cases involves variable delays. Observed changes in exponential rates come from grow…