Tootfinder

The full formula for the probability of "success" is:
p = {
1/(2^(-n 1)) if n is negative, or
1 - (1/(2^(n 1))) if n is zero or positive
}
(Both branches have the same value when n is 0, so the behavior is smooth around the origin.)
How can we tweak this?
First, we can introduce fixed success and/or failure chances unaffected by level, with this formula only taking effect if those don't apply. For example, you could do 10% failure, 80% by formula, and 10% success to keep things from being too sure either way even when levels are very high or low. On the other hand, this flattening makes the benefit of extra advantage levels even less exciting.
Second, we could allow for gradations of success/failure, and treat the coin pools I used to explain that math like dice pools a bit. An in-between could require linearly more success flips to achieve the next higher grade of success at each grade. For example, simple success on a crit role might mean dealing 1.5x damage, but if you succeed on 2 of your flips, you get 9/4 damage, or on 4 flips 27/8, or on 7 flips 81/16. In this world, stacking crit levels might be a viable build, and just giving up on armor would be super dangerous. In the particular case I was using this for just now, I can't easily do gradations of success (that's the reason I turned to probabilities in the first place) but I think I'd favor this approach when feasible.
The main innovation here over simple dice pools is how to handle situations where the number of dice should be negative. I'm almost certain it's not a truly novel innovation though, and some RPG fan can point out which system already does this (please actually do this, I'm an RPG nerd too at heart).
I'll leave this with one more tweak we could do: what if the number 2 in the probability equation were 3, or 2/3? I think this has a similar effect to just scaling all the modifiers a bit, but the algebra escapes me in this moment and I'm a bit lazy. In any case, reducing the base of the probability exponent should let you get a few more gradations near 50%, which is probably a good thing, since the default goes from 25% straight to 50% and then to 75% with no integer stops in between.

Did you know that the #UniversityOfGeorgia has TWO sets of Jean Charlot murals on its campus? Charlot hung out on the UGA campus for three years in the early 1940s, teaching and working with students. His murals that were inside what was once UGA's journalism building recently underwent some restoration thanks to our museum and the help of a lot of people from across campus.

Please help @… if you can. Her and her family are living through hell at the hands of israel.
#israel #genocide

Hey Tenno, if you feel the weight of the Orokin legacy, boost this to spread the word across the Fediverse! If you enjoy Warframe and love the Fediverse, check out:
- https://video.sidh.bzh/c/warframe/videos
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The dollar sank to its lowest level in more than three years on Thursday
and the FTSE 100 closed at a record high as Donald Trump’s latest trade threats and the weakening economy appeared to bring forward interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Foreign exchange traders sold the dollar in favour of the yen and the euro,
which both climbed by about 1% against the US currency to leave it almost 10% down on its value against a basket of currencies since the beginning of the …

@… Nice! I don’t think they are old enough yet. This was mostly crafting, face painting, and a bouncy castle. (TIL the word „Hupfburg“.) There was live music but honestly, it was the most disappointing part of the whole day. The rest was great.
This was the event, in case you’re interested:

Our body always wants to have three reference points since we live in 3D space. This can be a combination of two position sensors, and vision. Here is an interesting situation. When I shower, and am standing up, I place my normal leg and foot on the floor of the shower, and kneel on a shower stool. Combine that with my visual reference of my position in space, and I am golden. (2)

"This is not, repeat not, a giant leap for womankind. This is an intergalactic episode of Real Housewives meets The Kardashians Go to The Moon. It’s a quick “getaway” for the billionaire set as six gal pals cosplay astronauts in tight blue Star Trek at their very own CosmicCon."

I have no clue how to play in a band, how to record and track, let alone mix a track. But I love music and I could listen forever to Rick Beato interviewing Eric Valentine about every little detail of his productions – this guy really knows and loves his stuff! Incredible! 😮 #music #audioengineering

The move to Windows 11 isn’t just about security updates.
It increases dependence on Microsoft through aggressive cloud integration,
forcing users to adopt Microsoft accounts and services.
It also leads to higher costs due to subscription and licensing models,
and reduces control over how your computer works and how your data is managed.
Furthermore, new hardware requirements will render millions of perfectly good PCs obsolete.
This is a turning point.

The end of Windows 10 is approaching, so it's time to consider Linux and LibreOffice - The Document Foundation Blog
The Document Foundation and LibreOffice support the international campaign @endof10 https://endof10.org/ The countdown has begun. On 14 October 2025, Microsoft will end support for Windows 10. This will leave millions of users and organisations with a difficult choice: should they upgrade to Windows 11, or completely rethink their work environment? The good news? You don’t […]