@heiseonline@social.heise.de2025-07-14 14:01:00
@tiotasram@kolektiva.social2025-05-15 17:02:17
The full formula for the probability of "success" is:
p = {
1/(2^(-n 1)) if n is negative, or
1 - (1/(2^(n 1))) if n is zero or positive
}
(Both branches have the same value when n is 0, so the behavior is smooth around the origin.)
How can we tweak this?
First, we can introduce fixed success and/or failure chances unaffected by level, with this formula only taking effect if those don't apply. For example, you could do 10% failure, 80% by formula, and 10% success to keep things from being too sure either way even when levels are very high or low. On the other hand, this flattening makes the benefit of extra advantage levels even less exciting.
Second, we could allow for gradations of success/failure, and treat the coin pools I used to explain that math like dice pools a bit. An in-between could require linearly more success flips to achieve the next higher grade of success at each grade. For example, simple success on a crit role might mean dealing 1.5x damage, but if you succeed on 2 of your flips, you get 9/4 damage, or on 4 flips 27/8, or on 7 flips 81/16. In this world, stacking crit levels might be a viable build, and just giving up on armor would be super dangerous. In the particular case I was using this for just now, I can't easily do gradations of success (that's the reason I turned to probabilities in the first place) but I think I'd favor this approach when feasible.
The main innovation here over simple dice pools is how to handle situations where the number of dice should be negative. I'm almost certain it's not a truly novel innovation though, and some RPG fan can point out which system already does this (please actually do this, I'm an RPG nerd too at heart).
I'll leave this with one more tweak we could do: what if the number 2 in the probability equation were 3, or 2/3? I think this has a similar effect to just scaling all the modifiers a bit, but the algebra escapes me in this moment and I'm a bit lazy. In any case, reducing the base of the probability exponent should let you get a few more gradations near 50%, which is probably a good thing, since the default goes from 25% straight to 50% and then to 75% with no integer stops in between.
@chris@mstdn.chrisalemany.ca2025-06-14 23:34:03
I was at the Bastille Day parade in Paris where I think ol Donny got his hard on for big parades (see next) and, no offence at all to the soldiers doing their jobs, but Don, this parade is not even Macron worthy.
#nokings #parade #sad https://todon.eu/@b9AcE/114684200393019112
@cdarwin@c.im2025-06-14 16:17:41
This is how to testify to hostile Republican congressmen
https://bsky.app/profile/calltoactivism.bsky.social/post/3lrl4hamhck2m
@leftsidestory@mstdn.social2025-06-14 03:35:18
Urban Composition III
都市构图 III
📷 Nikon FE
🎞️Ilford FP4 Plus, expired 1995
buy me ☕️ ?/请我喝杯☕️？
#filmphotography
@Techmeme@techhub.social2025-07-13 22:45:36
A look at how Big Tech is faring in the Trump administration in terms of their executives' ties with Trump, contracts, antitrust cases, tariffs, and more (Wall Street Journal)
https://www.wsj.com/tech/trump-tech-executives…
@rasterweb@mastodon.social2025-06-14 13:16:44
I rode my bike to the library to return a book, which isn't terribly exciting, but I'm pleased that I can now take care of local errands by bike instead of car.
#bikeTooter
@tinoeberl@mastodon.online2025-06-14 20:22:07
Auf dem #Schnürbuck bei #Ettenheim startet der Bau von drei #Windenergieanlagen.
Die Anlieferung der Betonelemente läuft, der Turmbau beginnt im März. Bis Herbst sollen sich d…
@muz4now@mastodon.world2025-06-14 17:57:32
Roland Announces BOSS Effects Pedals Plug-In https://www.premierguitar.com/news/roland-boss-pedal-plugin?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_content=user/premierguitar&utm_medium=mastodon…
@cdarwin@c.im2025-06-15 00:28:08