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Hybrid Physics-ML Framework for Pan-Arctic Permafrost Infrastructure Risk at Record 2.9-Million Observation Scale
Boris Kriuk
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.02189 https://

Hybrid Physics-ML Framework for Pan-Arctic Permafrost Infrastructure Risk at Record 2.9-Million Observation Scale
Arctic warming threatens over 100 billion in permafrost-dependent infrastructure across Northern territories, yet existing risk assessment frameworks lack spatiotemporal validation, uncertainty quantification, and operational decision-support capabilities. We present a hybrid physics-machine learning framework integrating 2.9 million observations from 171,605 locations (2005-2021) combining permafrost fraction data with climate reanalysis. Our stacked ensemble model (Random Forest + Histogram G…

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