Tootfinder

Quantifying the probability of committed AMOC collapse: #AMOC is nearing collapse, but the latest findings are certainly alarming. A looong recent talk - in German - about AMOC uncertainties and its tipping point: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzFQgxsRabU

tja… Boris Palmer macht wieder Dinge
https://www.swr.de/swraktuell/baden-wuerttemberg/tuebingen/boris-palmer-verwehrt-sportlerin-im-rollstuhl-eine-rampe-fuer-eine-ehrung-100.html

"Bin ich weniger wert?" - Boris Palmer will Para-Tischtennisspielerin keine Rampe bauen
Eine Tischtennisspielerin im Rollstuhl bekommt keine Rampe für eine Sportlerehrung. Das hat Tübingens OB Boris Palmer entschieden. Die Sportlerin wundert sich.

Well, this was a chore I have been kind of dreading since last fall! Cutting, splicing, crimping and ultimately connecting and lengthening the cable for the water pump for the #poolpond. I did it, but I am tired and my hands hurt. 😂 😭
It’s a pretty straightforward thing… you cut the ends off the extension cord, cut it to length, cut the part of the pump cord you want to extend in two, and then set about stripping, crimping, heat shrinking, and taping, the two cables together.
But I knew it wasn’t going to be one and done. I started this at 4PM. Thought I had it almost done by 4:30 and then realized I forgot to thread the heat shrink tubing on first. 😣 doh
So I started over.
Then I got half way through try#2 and had to leave….
Came back to it just after 9PM… and spent the next two hours doing, and redoing, it. Until it was, I hope, good.
Won’t know for sure until I plug the pump in tomorrow.
Slightly nervous. 😬
I’ll update you tomorrow! Probably first thing! 🤞
#pond #gardening #diy #electrical #pandemicpond #backyardProject

A Simulation Methodology Testbed for Typhoon Sensitivity Analysis: Framework Development and Perturbation-Response Experiments with the Pangu Weather Model
Yuehua Peng, Yuchen Zhang, Qin Huang, Chengzhi Ye, Jingsong Yang
https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.21864 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2605.21864 https://arxiv.org/html/2605.21864
arXiv:2605.21864v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Understanding how typhoons respond to localized perturbations in their environmental fields is fundamental to assessing the limits of predictability and exploring the potential for track or intensity intervention. This study develops a dedicated simulation methodology testbed for typhoon sensitivity analysis by integrating the Pangu weather model, a high-precision AI forecasting system, with Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) closed-loop techniques. The testbed is constructed with modular functional blocks including a meteorological prediction module, an artificial perturbation input interface, a typhoon quantitative modeling module, and a PID closed-loop test module, implemented via a cross-platform MATLAB/ONNX technical framework. A Single-Input Single-Output (SISO) test system was built, with velocity and thermal perturbations set as the core inputs and typhoon track and intensity as the key output targets, to perform controlled perturbation-response experiments. The experiments reveal the feasible perturbation-response range, the parameter tuning behavior of the PID module, and the energy-scale response characteristics under different perturbation modes, and quantify the input-output coupling relationships of the test system. By constructing this testbed on an operational AI weather forecasting model, this study provides a framework that goes beyond idealized sensitivity studies typically validated only on low-order dynamical models. The testbed offers an expandable platform for investigating typhoon sensitivity to artificial environmental perturbations and provides a foundation for subsequent expansion toward multi-input multi-output architectures and advanced analysis strategies such as nonlinear PID or model predictive control.
toXiv_bot_toot

2/2 Along the same plumbing lines... I am also preparing the pumps themselves.
One major thing to do was to splice in an extension cord to the cord for the pump. Obviously this is a "break the warranty" situation, but there is no way around it really. The included cord is only about 6ft to the electronic controller unit and AC/DC transformer. It needs to be much longer to reach even just the shed beside the intake bay where the main pump lives.
I do have two of these pumps so I am holding off extending the second one until I know this first one is successful and happily pumping away in the pond.
The second one will take water directly from the bottom of the main pond as opposed to the intake bay, but it is only additional capacity and isn't critical. Ideally I will have both on at half power normally. But for now, we start with this one!
Need to get butt connectors and heat shrink tubing tomorrow. Ill probably do this electrical work on Thursday or Friday night so I can test it out hopefully Saturday!
#poolpond #pandemicpond #backyardProject #portalberni #gardening #diy

oopsie doodles!
Came outside to do some dirt moving only to find the #poolpond intake bay very nearly empty!
I have not been topping up the water since I filled it about 9 days ago? It has been cooler but windy and the last little bit of rain we got was a few days ago.
It must have just got below the level of the intake bay in the past hour or two as it was on its way to emptying. Luckily i caught it in time.
Water is being added now. I am also going to use the twirly sprinkler to water the flower and blueberry garden and it will also add to the pond at the same time in a nice aerated way.
Adding from the hose is not ideal as all that chlorine goes in at the same time
Anyways, crisis averted and information gained. It is already coming back up nicely.
hopefully it is full in time to have a dip after dirt moving!
#gardening #pondlife #diy #backyardProject

Judith Curry is possibly the most confusing and infuriating scientist in the entire climatological arena. She contributed to major understandings around the changes in the jet stream, the Arctic, and other processes that helped explain the impact climate change has already had on our day to day weather.
But then she left academia and essentially became a mouthpiece for Neo-denialism, claiming others were being “alarmist” and that while CO2 was the main cause, we really shouldn’t be spending money on reducing emissions.
Her final blog announcing its retirement is an interesting combination of declaring victory, mostly thanks to Trump and his acolytes (like Carney) who have pivoted fully into the arms of the fossil fuel industry, and declaring she was tired of it all and just wants to be in her garden and stop the flow of now $16,000 (!!) to maintain her Wordpress blog for the past 15 years.
She has done real damage to efforts to stop CO2 emissions. But another part of me wonders if this is an admission of guilt. Very often people come to a point, even subconsciously, where they realize they’re in with the wrong crowd.
I wonder if she has had that moment with Trump. She probably thinks it’s all irrelevant and out of her hands now. Other players, namely the oil industry, Trump, Putin, etc. will decide what happens and scientists like her will have no impact.
I am glad she is tapping out, as so many deniers inevitably do, but it is clear she is doing it because she thinks she’s won, and that is very very bad for the world.
#climateChange #carney #cdnpoli #canpoli #climateEmergency #climateDenial #science #JudithCurry #theAmericanFascist