Tootfinder

Electric vehicles now account for a quarter of the new car market in Germany, France and the UK, with a further 12% for plug-in hybrids.
Other large car markets, such as Italy and Spain, are also seeing significant growth in the #EV share.

Trump Risks Disrupting Energy Markets for 'Years' With Strikes on Iran's Infrastructure (NOTUS)
https://www.notus.org/defense/trump-iran-infrastructure-strikes-threat-energy-markets
http://www.memeorandum.com/260407/p38#a260407p38

Polymarket removes long-running markets letting users bet on the chances of a nuclear weapon detonating amid the Iran strikes; a 2025 market had $1.7M in volume (Sam Reynolds/CoinDesk)
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/04/polymark…

Polymarket shelves nuclear detonation markets after outcry
Nuclear weapon-themed markets aren’t new on the prediction market platform, but public outcry about the contracts has apparently forced the platform to delete them.

Podcast transcript with Nilay Patel and Liz Lopatto, on why prediction market players want to be seen not as gambling but as news, incentivizing insider trading (Nilay Patel/The Verge)
https://www.theverge.com/podcast/889177/pred…

Prediction markets in the news are a dangerous gamble
Why platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket want so badly to be seen as sources of news, instead of anything-goes casinos.

Asia’s Fuel Shortage Is Creating a Domino Effect Across Global Markets | EBC Financial Group
https://www.ebc.com/forex/asias-fuel-shortage-is-creating-a-domino-effect-across-global-markets

A report on local flexibility markets commissioned by the European Commission and carried out by the Belgian energy research centre VITO has outlined the key features of success: standardisation, automation, aggregation, transparency, markets
https://op.europa.eu/e…

Not sure I agree w/this whole article, but interesting perspective. “…any systemically important market can be shut down not by force but by…withdrawal of…institutional trust layer that enables…function…mechanism is substrate-agnostic…operated in…repo market in 2008…is operating in…Strait of Hormuz in 2026…will operate again, in…different domain…next time verification costs invert transaction economics in…concentrated market structure w/o adequate government backstop.”

The Invisible Siege: How Insurance Markets, Not Missiles, Closed the Strait of Hormuz
And Why the Disruption Will Last Four to Sixteen Months Longer Than Any Model on Wall Street Currently Prices

Hours before Khamenei’s compound in Tehran was reduced to rubble last week,
an account under the username “magamyman” bet about $20,000 that the supreme leader would no longer be in power by the end of March.
Polymarket placed the odds at just 14 percent, netting “magamyman” a profit of more than $120,000.
Everyone knew that an attack might be in the works
—some American aircraft carriers had already been deployed to the Middle East weeks ago
—but the Iranian gove…

Insider Trading Is Going to Get People Killed
War markets are a national-security threat.

So, anybody know the odds on the "Prediction Markets" (aka gambling sites) regarding whether trump/hogsbreath are going to go nuclear tonight?
(We already know that the US military doesn't care a damn about whether their orders are Constitutional or not - we now know based on actual events that the US military has turned into trump's Praetorian guard.)

How prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are aggressively targeting college students through fraternity partnerships and student influencers (Wall Street Journal)
https://www.wsj.com/business/media/prediction-markets-campu…

Campaign staffers tell NPR they make 'thousands' betting on their own candidates (Luke Garrett/NPR)
https://www.npr.org/2026/05/07/nx-s1-5795891/prediction-markets-kalshi-polymarket-campaigns
http://www.memeorandum.com/260507/p37#a260507p37

Early NFL awards favorites, longshots: Which rooki... https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/48687620/nfl-awards-offensive-rookie-year-coach-year-2026

The Markets Have Reacted Favourably to a Two Week Postponement of Genocide.

In "Wird Europa seine eigenen Regeln durchsetzen?" (https://background.tagesspiegel.de/digitalisierung-und-ki/briefing/wird-europa-seine-eigenen-regeln-durchsetzen), zeigen Lucas und Dario von der

eu_procurements_alt: EU national procurement networks (2008-2016)
These 234 networks represent the annual national public procurement markets of 26 European countries from 2008-2016, inclusive. Data is sourced from Tenders Electronic Daily (TED), the official procurement portal of the European Union.
This network has 19959 nodes and 40009 edges.
Tags: Economic, Commerce, Weighted, Temporal

Rep. Ritchie Torres calls for probe into futures trades placed ahead of March pause on Iran hostilities (CNBC)
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/08/iran-ceasefire-futures-markets-ritchie-torrres.html
http://www.memeorandum.com/260408/p94#a260408p94

Datenschutz und Innovation „gefährdet”: Apples Regulierungschef von EU genervt
Dass Apple der Digital Markets Act nicht schmeckt, ist weitläufig bekannt. Nun holt Policy-Boss Kyle Andeer die Kritikkeule heraus: Apple ist schwer frustriert.

Datenschutz und Innovation „gefährdet”: Apples Regulierungschef von EU genervt
Dass Apple der Digital Markets Act nicht schmeckt, ist weitläufig bekannt. Nun holt Policy-Boss Kyle Andeer die Kritikkeule heraus: Apple ist schwer frustriert.

"Are Washington insiders just profiting from prediction markets, or manipulating them?"
Betting on the News - by Casey Burgat - The Preamble
https://thepreamble.com/p/betting-on-the-news

"There is no way to reduce the hit to consumption from a spike in oil prices by producing more oil."
This is the USA case but it applies to all free
markets, UK included, drillers please note.
https://www.coldeye.earth/p/distress-signal

Distress Signal
Monday 5 April 2026

Iran Ends Direct US Contact After Trump's Threat on Civilization, Report Says (Bloomberg)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2026-04-07/iran-latest-trump-hormuz-threats-deadline-middle-east-conflict-oil-markets?cursorId=69D51F184A180001
http://www.memeorandum.com/260407/p66#a260407p66

A look at the rivalry between Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan, who have competing visions for how prediction markets should grow (Bobby Allyn/NPR)
https://www.npr.org/2026/03/06/nx-s1-5735893/iran-war-kalshi-polymarket-feud

My fellow people of the United States, if I have anything to teach from what Minneapolis just lived through, it is this:
Nobody is coming to save us.
Not Congress. Not the courts. Not the ICC or the EU or NATO. Not the generals or the rank and file. Not the press. Not the markets. Not the elections. Not some mythical version of “The People” that materializes out of nowhere as some messianic external force.
We’re it. We’re all we’ve got. If we don’t stop fascism from completely engulfing the US, then nobody stops it.
7/

Aaron Rodgers might actually be ready to sign with the Steelers, plus ranking the NFL's worst QB rooms

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/aaron-rodgers-steelers-contract-worst-qb-…

Finally, a use for all the array of giant monitors I have mounted to my office wall.
https://www.worldmonitor.app/

World Monitor - Real-Time Global Intelligence Dashboard
Real-time global intelligence dashboard with live news, markets, military tracking, infrastructure monitoring, and geopolitical data. OSINT in one view.

So Wisconsin isn't allowed to enforce laws that ban gambling in the state?
"Last week, the #Wisconsin Department of Justice announced lawsuits against #Kalshi, Robinhood, Coinbase, #Polymarket and Crypto.com for allegedly facilitating illegal sports betting on their platforms. A lawsuit filed Wednesday by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, in response to those lawsuits alleges Wisconsin is attempting to interfere with “federally regulated markets.”"
https://www.wpr.org/news/federal-government-sues-wisconsin-prediction-markets-platforms

Drift details how suspected North Korean attackers stole $270M posing as a quant trading firm in a 6 month operation with in-person meetings and a $1M deposit (Shaurya Malwa/CoinDesk)
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/0

Drift says $270 million exploit was a six-month North Korean intelligence operation
Attackers posed as a trading firm, met Drift contributors in person across multiple countries, deposited $1 million of their own capital, and waited half a year before executing the drain CoinDesk detailed earlier this week.

RE: https://mastodon.social/@burger_jaap/116533260681779590
Germany has a 23.6% share of the BEV market this year, whereas domestic car production has a 29.9% share. Room for improvement here if Germans loved their EVs as much as foreign markets do!

Thanks to the extremist agenda of the richest tycoons supporting the authoritarians agenda, American tech companies are going to see a collapse in revenues and growth in these markets. Was it worth it just to support a bunch of child sexual predators? https://techpolicy.press/almost-two…

Almost Two-Thirds of Europeans Back Replacing US Tech, Poll Finds
EU leaders are pursuing digital sovereignty plans to reduce the 27-country bloc’s dependence on the United States, writes Mark Scott.

Throwback: Raiders in the UK https://www.raiders.com/news/throwback-raiders-in-the-uk-global-markets-program

💸 Prediction market firms could be making $10 billion in yearly revenue by 2030, Citizens Bank says
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/02/24/from-niche-to-usd3-billion-run-rate-prediction-markets-eye…

Prediction market firms could be making $10 billion in yearly revenue by 2030, Citizens Bank says
The bank said rising volumes, tighter market structure and early institutional engagement are pushing prediction markets beyond their gambling roots toward a new asset class.

The US IRS is yet to issue guidelines on whether prediction market gains should be taxed as derivatives, gambling winnings, or income, worrying accountants (Kate Knibbs/Wired)
https://www.wired.com/story/nobody-knows-how-to-file-taxes-on-predi…

Nobody Knows How to File Taxes on Prediction Market Wins
Americans flocked to prediction markets last year. Now, it’s time to pay taxes on winnings. How do you do that? Great question.

Wanna guess?
------‐--------
Iran war: Over $1 billion made from suspiciously timed oil price tips—who's behind them?
https://gulfnews.com/business/markets/iran-war-over-1-billion-made-from-sus…

Iran war: Over $1 billion made from suspiciously timed oil price tips—who's behind them?
US probes $1b in well-timed oil trades as questions mount over insider access, prediction markets and who is cashing in on Iran conflict price swings.

Interesting intersection of politics and technology.
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/strait-hormuz-choking-bitcoin-not-134900366.html

Strait of Hormuz is choking Bitcoin, not just oil. But there's a catch
The Strait of Hormuz might be just 21 nautical miles wide, but it is a vital artery connecting the Persian Gulf to the global market. With the ongoing...

Wäre das echtes Geld (und nicht nur ein Experiment), könnte @… Insidertipps geben: https://bahn.bet/

Wow, gainers vs decliners paints a pretty grim picture right now... https://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX Relieved I don't have much exposure to the market. I gather the picture is even more bleak in the bigger markets.

Earlier this year, cyber stocks got wrongly hammered due to all the hoopla around AI.
Now they're gaining ground due to the hoopla around AI.
Goldman Sachs Analyst Says Cybersecurity Stocks Are Outpacing Broader Software Sector— 'Set A Good Bar'
…

Goldman Sachs Analyst Says Cybersecurity Stocks Are Outpacing Broader Software Sector— 'Set A Good Bar' -
Goldman Sachs says U.S. cybersecurity stocks trade at a 24% premium to software peers, highlighting strong AI readiness, M&A strategy and durable industry moats.

De geest is uit de fles, die krijg je er niet meer in. De energiemarkt is veranderd en fossiel is volatiel
#Energietransitie https://reneweconomy.com.au/you-cannot-put-the-genie-back-in-the-bottle-forrest-says-world-energy-markets-have-changed-forever/

"'…war is hitting…global economy in cumulative waves: 1st through higher energy prices, then higher food prices, & finally, higher inflation, which will push up interest rates & make debt even more expensive,' said Indermit Gill…World Bank Group's Chief Economist '…poorest people, who spend…highest share of their income on food & fuels, will be hit…hardest…All of this is a reminder of…stark truth: war is development in reverse.'"

Middle East War to Spark Biggest Energy Price Surge in Four Years
Energy prices are projected to surge by 24% this year to their highest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as the war in the Middle East sends a severe shock through global commodity markets, according to the World Bank Group's latest Commodity Markets Outlook.

U.S. crude oil sees largest weekly price jump on record (Steve Kopack/NBC News)
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/oil-gas-prices-stock-drop-iran-war-rcna262079
http://www.memeorandum.com/260306/p99#a260306p99

Constrained optimal transport with an application to large markets with indivisible goods
Koji Yokote
https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.02559 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2604.02559 https://arxiv.org/html/2604.02559
arXiv:2604.02559v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: We establish a variant of Monge--Kantorovich duality for a constrained optimal transport problem with a continuum of agents, a finite set of alternatives, and general linear constraints. As an application, we revisit the large-market model of indivisible goods in Azevedo et al. (2013), identify a flaw in the original equilibrium-existence proof stemming from an incorrect compactness claim, and recover equilibrium existence via our duality approach. We also characterize equilibrium prices as minimizers of a potential function, which yields a method for computing equilibrium prices.
toXiv_bot_toot

Trump’s from-the-gut decision-making,
combined with Iran’s resilient ability to close shipping lanes and wreak damage on Gulf energy production,
means that the range of possibilities for this war is still staggeringly broad.
New forecasts come out continuously.
Most scenarios go from bad to very bad — and much worse.
It’s difficult to rule anything out.
The markets so far have embraced the merely bad predictions
— which, under the current circumstanc…

What the Iran War Could Mean for Stocks, Bonds and Growth
A merely bad outlook might be good enough for the markets, our columnist says.

Good warning, markets will fall, be prepared. There is a strange continuing optimism. Trump's extensions of ceasefires don't change anything meaningful.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c75kp1y43lgo

Global stock markets are too high and set to fall, says Bank of England deputy
It is unusual for a senior figure at the Bank to be so forthright on market movements.

An interview with Ben Levisohn, recently named editor-in-chief of Barron's, on his routine, the magazine's digital strategy, and more (Ray Schultz/MediaPost)
https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/413200/the-barrons-…

Barron's Barometer: EIC Ben Levisohn Pursues Strong Investment Reporting
Levisohn, a 12-year Barron's veteran, weighs in on markets and journalism.

Throwback: Raiders in the UK https://www.raiders.com/news/throwback-raiders-in-the-uk-global-markets-program

The US Senate unanimously passed a rule barring senators from trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, amid rising concern over insider trading (Dan Mangan/CNBC)
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/30/senate-prediction-markets-trading-ba…

U.S. senators ban themselves from prediction markets trading
The move came after Democratic lawmakers asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to prohibit event contracts on elections, war and military actions.

Senate Bans Members, Staff From Prediction Markets - Joe.My.God.
https://www.joemygod.com/2026/04/senate-bans-members-staff-from-prediction-markets/

Why Almost Everyone Loses--Except a Few Sharks--on Prediction Markets (Wall Street Journal)
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/polymarket-kalshi-betting-profits-prediction-markets-eb23ac11?st=ooWWeh&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
http://www.memeorandum.com/260504/p2#a260504p2

"Don't punish the pioneers"
The slow transition from combustion engines to EVs is putting pressure on the German car industry. However, unlike the German government, innovators in the sector wish to stick to the European CO2 targets (for 2035 and the path towards them).
https://zenodo.org/records/20030452

Bill Maher:
Minutes before Trump makes some pronouncement, people will be trading and making enormous money.
Senator Elissa Slotkin:
I just dropped a bill yesterday on prediction markets.
No one in the government should be able to place a bet based on insider information.
No government official should be profiting off insider information on prediction markets. Period.

Senator Elissa Slotkin (@slotkin.senate.gov)
No government official should be profiting off insider information on prediction markets. Period.

Sources: Paradigm, a major investor in Kalshi, is building its own prediction markets trading terminal that will cater to professional traders and market makers (Ben Weiss/Fortune)
https://fortune.com/2026/04/01/paradigm-prediction-…

Exclusive: Paradigm, a major investor in Kalshi, is building its own prediction markets trading terminal, say sources
The longtime crypto venture firm has invested three times over into Kalshi, and Paradigm’s managing partner Matt Huang is on the startup’s board.

Axios says Axios Local will expand from 35 to 43 US cities by 2026's end and paying members more than doubled to 15K since 2025's end, as it seeks profitability (Alice Brooker/Press Gazette)
https://pressgazette.co.uk/newsletters/axios-local-newsle…

Axios Local ramps up expansion again as part of 'path to profitability'
Axios is expanding its local newsletter business into eight cities this year - its total footprint will be 43 markets.

Really happy with this conversation — I got a chance to drop in on The Vergecast, which is one of my favorite tech podcasts because they go deep into the systems that affect how and why we're able to innovate, and what shapes the markets we all operate in. David Pierce let me nerd out about how important it is that technologies like podcasts stay open for everyone to be able to participate without any gatekeepers. I think you're going to like this one!

Throwback: Raiders in Canada https://www.raiders.com/news/throwback-raiders-in-canada-global-markets-program-2026

Constrained optimal transport with an application to large markets with indivisible goods
Koji Yokote
https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.02559 https://arxiv.org/pd…

Analysis: since the end of 2025, Polymarket users have rarely bet large sums on US strikes the next day; before the Iran strikes, 150 accounts placed such bets (Amy Fan/New York Times)
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/upshot/…

How Anonymous Bettors Cashed In on the Iran Strike, Just Hours Before It Happened
Polymarket users placed hundreds of bets of at least $1,000 predicting an imminent American strike, raising concerns about insider trading.

Stock markets slump amid Iran war as gas prices jump 30% to three-year high (The Guardian)
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/03/global-stock-markets-iran-war-gas-oil-prices-ftse-100
http://www.memeorandum.com/260303/p44#a260303p44

The CFTC sues Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois over their actions against prediction markets, saying it has the "exclusive" authority to regulate such markets (Alex Harring/CNBC)
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/02/prediction-mar…

CFTC sues 3 states over prediction market regulation
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said it was suing Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois over its ability to exclusively regulate prediction markets.

Throwback: Raiders in Canada https://www.raiders.com/news/throwback-raiders-in-canada-global-markets-program-2026

Escalation rarely stays confined to one place.
The wider region is watching.
Gulf states are quietly recalibrating, strengthening defences and updating contingency plans.
Traders and markets are alert, and governments around the world are preparing for potential spillovers.
For ordinary people – in Tehran, in Beirut, in Gaza, in Tel Aviv, and increasingly across the Gulf – the cost is paid in uncertainty,
disrupted lives and a constant recalibration of what “…

Robinhood debuts its $658.4M venture fund on the NYSE, pricing the IPO at $25 per share, offering retail investors access to private companies like Databricks (Manya Saini/Reuters)
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/r

How Anonymous Bettors Cashed In on the Iran Strike, Just Hours Before It Happened (Amy Fan/New York Times)
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/upshot/prediction-markets-iran-strikes.html
http://www.memeorandum.com/260303/p158#a260303p158

Study: only ~3% of Polymarket accounts drove most price discovery in 2023-2025, suggesting market accuracy comes from an informed minority, not crowd wisdom (Sam Reynolds/CoinDesk)
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/2

Only 3% of traders drive Polymarket's accuracy, not the crowd, study finds
Researchers show market accuracy comes from a tiny group of informed traders, not broad participation.

Why prediction markets are a sure sign that our civilisation is in decay
https://www.joanwestenberg.com/why-prediction-markets-are-a-sure-sign-that-our-civilisation-is-in-decay/?ref=westenberg-newsletter

“Overweighting the US has served global investors well the past 15 years,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management said.
“That said, we believe shifting geopolitical, monetary and fiscal policy regimes amid technological upheaval and the constraints of developed world debt are creating a need for diversification beyond US stocks and bonds for long-term investors.”
“One of the biggest and most underappreciated surprises of 2025 has been the extr…

US stocks had a remarkable 2025. But international markets did much better
Heading into 2025, US stock valuations were already relatively expensive compared to the rest of the world, creating an incentive for investors to look for returns in different markets.

Polymarket partners with Singapore-based Kaito AI to launch "attention markets", letting users bet on "mindshare" and "sentiment" metrics from social media (Alicia Park/Forbes)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/aliciapark/20

Polymarket To Offer Attention Markets In Partnership With Kaito AI
The prediction market is partnering with an AI engine that tracks social media data to create markets about cultural relevance.

A year later, the cost of ‘tariff mania’
U.S. markets recorded one of the most volatile years in history, marked by extreme swings and modest gains driven by a handful of stocks for tech companies largely inoculated from import duties.
Federal customs duties brought in tens of billions of dollars.
But a study published this week by the European Central Bank found that U.S. importers and consumers, -- not foreign exporters, -- bore the brunt of the costs that paid for it

Revolut, which has about 70M clients in 40 markets, applies for a US bank charter and appoints former Visa executive Cetin Duransoy as its new US CEO (Reuters)
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy…

RE: https://mastodon.social/@burger_jaap/116339342385952200
Interest in second-hand electric cars is growing in many markets, including Romania, Portugal and other countries. And interest in, results in…

2026 NFL Draft Odds: Top-10 Mock Using Betting Markets https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/2026-nfl-draft-odds-predictions-top-10-mock-using-betting-markets

Crypto asset manager CoinShares began trading on the Nasdaq Wednesday, marking its entry into US public markets after its $1.2B SPAC merger with Vine Hill (Naga Avan-Nomayo/The Block)
https://www.theblock.co/post/396021/coinsh

Time and again in the communist bloc, economic reformers from Moscow to Pyongyang planned to introduce rationality and markets into planning.
They often thought they had won the argument,
-- and not just among dissidents in labor camps but at the highest levels of their Politburos.
Yet almost every time, their proposed reforms were either whittled down to nothing before implementation, or passed and then reversed after a few months or years.
Why?
These reformers …

Why communist reformers always lost
Communism had reforming optimists too. Their failure can help today’s reformers to avoid the same fate.

CFTC Chair Mike Selig says the commission will file friend-of-the-court briefs to defend its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets amid state lawsuits (Nathan Bomey/Axios)
https://www.axios.com/2026/02/17/cftc-prediction-markets-mike-selig

U.S. commission fights states on prediction markets: "We will see you in court"
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is launching a legal campaign to defend its regulatory turf on prediction markets.

The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate has jumped by 10% today,
after Donald Trump vowed to hit Iran “extremely hard” for the next few weeks,
dashing hopes of de-escalation and an early end to the conflict.
US crude is trading at $111 a barrel,
the highest level since 9 March.
This puts a barrel of WTI above the international benchmark,
Brent crude, which has jumped more than 8% to $109.32 a barrel.
Although Trump pledged last night to fini…

Kalshi announces new guardrails to preemptively block politicians, athletes, and others from trading in their relevant markets (Nathan Bomey/Axios)
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/23/kalshi-prediction-markets-insider-trading-ban

Exclusive: Kalshi to block athletes and politicians from trading on their markets
Prediction market Kalshi plans to block athletes, coaches and officials from betting on their sports and to block political candidates from trading on their campaigns, Axios has learned.

Robinhood reports Q1 revenue up 15% YoY to $1.07B, vs. $1.14B est., and crypto revenue down 47% to $134M, vs. $147.6M est.; HOOD drops 6% after hours (Luke Kawa/Sherwood News)
https://sherwood.news/markets/robinhood-q1-2026-earnings-report/

Robinhood sinks after Q1 results trail estimates
The brokerage just reported quarterly results.

After markets rattle, Trump once again punts on following through with threat on Iran power plants (Aamer Madhani/Associated Press)
https://apnews.com/article/trump-iran-hormuz-markets-bd5ad0e6999abf1cbdf1e7cfb8ea5109
http://www.memeorandum.com/260326/p163#a260326p163

Financial markets fall to new 2026 low as oil rises again
The longer oil prices remain elevated, it’s going to be harder to avoid a bad economic outcome,”
said Tom Porcelli, chief economist at Wells Fargo.
If the increase in oil prices holds for the next several months, that economic headwind could cancel out the tax cuts and other stimulus that the Trump administration was counting on, he added.

Financial leaders around the world have begun to warn that the global econo…

Financial markets fall to new 2026 low as oil rises again
Consumer sentiment in the economy dropped to its lowest level since December, as investors, businesses and consumers worry about the Iran conflict.

Live Updates: Global Markets Tumble After U.S. Warns War Could Last Weeks (Associated Press)
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/03/03/world/iran-war-israel-lebanon-trump?unlocked_article_code=1.QVA.5mJT.D566yIyefJvn&smid=url-share
http://www.memeorandum.com/260303/p50#a260303p50

💥Oil prices have soared and stock markets came under pressure on Monday
after the US-Israeli strikes on Iran prompted fears of significant global economic disruption.
Brent crude jumped by as much as 13% during early trading
– to hit $82 per barrel, a 14-month high
– as the effective closure of the strait of Hormuz,
-- one of the most important arteries for global trade,
-- intensified concerns over oil supplies.
💥Three US service members have b…

Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand and Dave McCormick introduce a bill banning members of the legislative and executive branches from trading on prediction markets (Jason Beeferman/Politico)
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/30/gil…

Treason in the Futures Markets (Paul Krugman)
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/treason-in-the-futures-markets
http://www.memeorandum.com/260324/p13#a260324p13

An analysis of 1.6M Polymarket accounts since November 2022: 0.1% of users take 67% of profits, with the highest-frequency traders seeing the most success (Wall Street Journal)
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/poly

Investors have grown accustomed to buying into major selloffs because stocks recover quickly
— not this time so far.

"This is a little bit of a more protracted, longer duration selloff than what investors have become used to,"
"Ironically, I think that's keeping people from feeling that they can buy the dip."
Big Tech firm's are spending at such a record rate to fund their AI ambitions, their capital expenditure is a bigger driver…

OpenAI fired an employee for insider trading on prediction markets like Polymarket; Unusual Whales has flagged 77 suspected insider trades around OpenAI events (Kate Knibbs/Wired)
https://www.wired.com/story/openai-fires-employee-insider-trading-polymarke…

OpenAI Fires an Employee for Prediction Market Insider Trading
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are big business, and some Big Tech employees are testing boundaries by making trades based on insider knowledge.

Dow drops 800 as stocks sell off around the world and oil prices leap even higher on war worries (Stan Choe/Associated Press)
https://apnews.com/article/stock-markets-iran-energy-oil-trump-75edbda5b8fa3038b47f143cc16855f0
http://www.memeorandum.com/260303/p65#a260303p65

Oil prices rise as Iran war escalates with Houthi attacks (Chuck McCutcheon/Axios)
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/29/iran-war-oil-markets-houthi-israel-attacks
http://www.memeorandum.com/260329/p55#a260329p55

Anthropic's valuation has hit $1T on Forge Global, a leading private marketplace exchange, surpassing OpenAI's valuation on the platform of $880B (Ben Bergman/Business Insider)
https://www.businessinsider.com/anthropic-trillion-dollar-val…

Anthropic has surged to a trillion-dollar valuation on secondary markets, overtaking OpenAI.
Buyers are in a race to secure a dwindling supply of shares in Anthropic, driving the AI company's valuation on some platforms to $1 trillion.

'There's a day of reckoning coming': Energy experts expect another spike at the pump (Politico)
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/27/trump-keeps-trying-reassure-oil-markets-some-analysts-think-he-making-it-worse-00894257
http://www.memeorandum.com/260428/p13#a260428p13

Circle shares fell as much as 18%, and Coinbase dropped about 8%, after a draft of the US Clarity Act raised the prospect of strict limits on stablecoin yield (CoinDesk)
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/2

CRCL, COIN news: Circle, Coinbase tumbles as regulators move to ban interest on stablecoins
The latest version of the Clarity Act is pressuring stocks as it would restrict stablecoin rewards.

US-Iran war damaged global oil markets more than Russia-Ukraine war, Chevron CEO says (Mike Lee/Politico)
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/23/iran-war-oil-markets-damage-00839780
http://www.memeorandum.com/260323/p93#a260323p93

Polymarket partners with Singapore-based Kaito AI to launch "attention markets", letting users bet on "mindshare" and "sentiment" metrics from social media (Alicia Park/Forbes)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/aliciapark/20

Polymarket To Offer Attention Markets In Partnership With Kaito AI
The prediction market is partnering with an AI engine that tracks social media data to create markets about cultural relevance.

Exclusive: Kalshi to block athletes and politicians from trading on their markets (Nathan Bomey/Axios)
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/23/kalshi-prediction-markets-insider-trading-ban
http://www.memeorandum.com/260323/p108#a260323p108

Q&A with Kalshi co-founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara on suing the US government, solving market making, agentic and insider trading, ethics, and more (John Collison/Cheeky Pint)
https://cheekypint.substack.com/p/creating-prediction-markets-and-suing

Creating prediction markets (and suing the CFTC) with Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara
Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara are the co-founders of Kalshi, the first federally regulated prediction market in the US.

Senators move to ban sports betting on prediction markets like Kalshi, Polymarket -- first bill of its kind (Marc Vartabedian/New York Post)
https://nypost.com/2026/03/23/business/senators-move-to-ban-sports-betting-on-prediction-markets-like-kalshi-polymarket-first-bill-of-its-kind/
http://www.memeorandum.com/260323/p105#a260323p105

Sources: SoftBank-owned Japanese payments app PayPay delays its IPO roadshow that was scheduled to launch Monday, as markets were rattled by the strikes in Iran (Echo Wang/Reuters)
https://www.reuters.com/sustainab…

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour says the company would void certain bets related to Iran's Ali Khamenei and claims it doesn't "list markets directly tied to death" (Terrence O'Brien/The Verge)
https://www.theverge.com/tech/887210/kalshi-void-bets-khamenei-…

Kalshi voids some bets on Khamenei’s ouster because it’s ‘directly tied to death’
Kalshi voids some bets on Ayatollah Khamenei’s ouster because it’s ‘“directly tied to death” but users say rules barring ‘“profiting from death” are unclear.

The US-led Iran bombing campaign causes longer delivery times for Amazon, Shein, and others in the Middle East, one of the fastest-growing e-commerce markets (Bloomberg)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-02/iran-str…

Amazon stock fell for the ninth straight day on Friday, its longest losing streak since 2006, opening at $244.98 on Feb. 3 and closing at $198.79 on Feb. 13 (Rani Molla/Sherwood News)
https://sherwood.news/markets/amazon-just-matched-its-longest-losin…

Amazon just matched its longest losing streak in 20 years
Its giant capex expectations are haunting the stock.

The US CFTC sues New York, accusing the state of invading its authority to regulate prediction markets by filing lawsuits against Coinbase and Gemini (Jonathan Stempel/Reuters)
https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/cftc-sues-new-y…

Robinhood Ventures Fund I discloses its first investments, buying $14.6M of Stripe shares and $20M of ElevenLabs' preferred stock in March (CoinDesk)
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/17/robinhood-s-new-ventu…

Robinhood’s new venture fund just snapped up stakes in Stripe and ElevenLabs
The closed-end fund aims to give everyday investors exposure to private firms before they go public.