@cdarwin@c.imAt a time when strategists across Wall Street are dialing back their recession probabilities, Peter Berezin of BCA Research is doubling down.
President Donald Trump's 90-day tariff pause was enough to ease the worries of some investors,
but the chief global strategist at BCA has maintained his bearish outlook.
While Berezin has lowered his recession outlook from Liberation Day levels,
he still expects an economic slowdown to unfold this year.
"I've …
@twistermc@fosstodon.orgIt’s almost like Elon doesn’t understand the customer base that buys Teslas. Just like he didn’t understand the user base that used Twitter.
@mpsgoettingen@academiccloud.socialIt may appear to be looking empty and quiet at the MPS Göttingen right now - but we have been bustling about and are very busy getting everything ready for our visitors at the Night of Science tomorrow! Care for a few sneak previews in today's thread?
@…
#ndwgoe
@radioeinsmusicbot@mastodonapp.uk🇺🇦 Auf radioeins läuft...
Oliver Koletzki & Frida Darko:
🎵 Space Base
#NowPlaying #OliverKoletzki #FridaDarko
https://eletronicdanceclub.bandcamp.com/track/oliver-koletzki-frida-darko-space-base-original-mix
https://open.spotify.com/track/5ZS2uH0kb2RhianAFwRydQ
@arXiv_mathCO_bot@mastoxiv.pageHamiltonian connectivity of some base-cobase graphs
Leonardo Mart\'inez-Sandoval, Kolja Knauer
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.15049 https://
@avstockhausen@fedihum.orgBookmarked: BaTyR - Base de Typographie de la Renaissance #Drucke_Typographie La Base de typographie de la Renaissance regroupe des informations relatives Š l'…
@45names@mastodon.social
@Techmeme@techhub.socialCoinbase says it has secured a MiCA license from Luxembourg to offer crypto services across the EU, and will shift its European base from Ireland to Luxembourg (Ryan Browne/CNBC)
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/20/coinbase-eu-license.html
@leftsidestory@mstdn.social
@tiotasram@kolektiva.socialWhy AI can't possibly make you more productive; long
#AI and "productivity", some thoughts:
Productivity is a concept that isn't entirely meaningless outside the context of capitalism, but it's a concept that is heavily inflected in a capitalist context. In many uses today it effectively means "how much you can satisfy and/or exceed your boss' expectations." This is not really what it should mean: even in an anarchist utopia, people would care about things like how many shirts they can produce in a week, although in an "I'd like to voluntarily help more people" way rather than an "I need to meet this quota to earn my survival" way. But let's roll with this definition for a second, because it's almost certainly what your boss means when they say "productivity", and understanding that word in a different (even if truer) sense is therefore inherently dangerous.
Accepting "productivity" to mean "satisfying your boss' expectations," I will now claim: the use of generative AI cannot increase your productivity.
Before I dive in, it's imperative to note that the big generative models which most people think of as constituting "AI" today are evil. They are 1: pouring fuel on our burning planet, 2: psychologically strip-mining a class of data laborers who are exploited for their precarity, 3: enclosing, exploiting, and polluting the digital commons, and 4: stealing labor from broad classes of people many of whom are otherwise glad to give that labor away for free provided they get a simple acknowledgement in return. Any of these four "ethical issues" should be enough *alone* to cause everyone to simply not use the technology. These ethical issues are the reason that I do not use generative AI right now, except for in extremely extenuating circumstances. These issues are also convincing for a wide range of people I talk to, from experts to those with no computer science background. So before I launch into a critique of the effectiveness of generative AI, I want to emphasize that such a critique should be entirely unnecessary.
But back to my thesis: generative AI cannot increase your productivity, where "productivity" has been defined as "how much you can satisfy and/or exceed your boss' expectations."
Why? In fact, what the fuck? Every AI booster I've met has claimed the opposite. They've given me personal examples of time saved by using generative AI. Some of them even truly believe this. Sometimes I even believe they saved time without horribly compromising on quality (and often, your boss doesn't care about quality anyways if the lack of quality is hard to measure of doesn't seem likely to impact short-term sales/feedback/revenue). So if generative AI genuinely lets you write more emails in a shorter period of time, or close more tickets, or something else along these lines, how can I say it isn't increasing your ability to meet your boss' expectations?
The problem is simple: your boss' expectations are not a fixed target. Never have been. In virtue of being someone who oversees and pays wages to others under capitalism, your boss' game has always been: pay you less than the worth of your labor, so that they can accumulate profit and this more capital to remain in charge instead of being forced into working for a wage themselves. Sure, there are layers of manservant caught in between who aren't fully in this mode, but they are irrelevant to this analysis. It matters not how much you please your manager if your CEO thinks your work is not worth the wages you are being paid. And using AI actively lowers the value of your work relative to your wages.
Why do I say that? It's actually true in several ways. The most obvious: using generative AI lowers the quality of your work, because the work it produces is shot through with errors, and when your job is reduced to proofreading slop, you are bound to tire a bit, relax your diligence, and let some mistakes through. More than you would have if you are actually doing and taking pride in the work. Examples are innumerable and frequent, from journalists to lawyers to programmers, and we laugh at them "haha how stupid to not check whether the books the AI reviewed for you actually existed!" but on a deeper level if we're honest we know we'd eventually make the same mistake ourselves (bonus game: spot the swipe-typing typos I missed in this post; I'm sure there will be some).
But using generative AI also lowers the value of your work in another much more frightening way: in this era of hype, it demonstrates to your boss that you could be replaced by AI. The more you use it, and no matter how much you can see that your human skills are really necessary to correct its mistakes, the more it appears to your boss that they should hire the AI instead of you. Or perhaps retain 10% of the people in roles like yours to manage the AI doing the other 90% of the work. Paradoxically, the *more* you get done in terms of raw output using generative AI, the more it looks to your boss as if there's an opportunity to get enough work done with even fewer expensive humans. Of course, the decision to fire you and lean more heavily into AI isn't really a good one for long-term profits and success, but the modern boss did not get where they are by considering long-term profits. By using AI, you are merely demonstrating your redundancy, and the more you get done with it, the more redundant you seem.
In fact, there's even a third dimension to this: by using generative AI, you're also providing its purveyors with invaluable training data that allows them to make it better at replacing you. It's generally quite shitty right now, but the more use it gets by competent & clever people, the better it can become at the tasks those specific people use it for. Using the currently-popular algorithm family, there are limits to this; I'm not saying it will eventually transcend the mediocrity it's entwined with. But it can absolutely go from underwhelmingly mediocre to almost-reasonably mediocre with the right training data, and data from prompting sessions is both rarer and more useful than the base datasets it's built on.
For all of these reasons, using generative AI in your job is a mistake that will likely lead to your future unemployment. To reiterate, you should already not be using it because it is evil and causes specific and inexcusable harms, but in case like so many you just don't care about those harms, I've just explained to you why for entirely selfish reasons you should not use it.
If you're in a position where your boss is forcing you to use it, my condolences. I suggest leaning into its failures instead of trying to get the most out of it, and as much as possible, showing your boss very clearly how it wastes your time and makes things slower. Also, point out the dangers of legal liability for its mistakes, and make sure your boss is aware of the degree to which any of your AI-eager coworkers are producing low-quality work that harms organizational goals.
Also, if you've read this far and aren't yet of an anarchist mindset, I encourage you to think about the implications of firing 75% of (at least the white-collar) workforce in order to make more profit while fueling the climate crisis and in most cases also propping up dictatorial figureheads in government. When *either* the AI bubble bursts *or* if the techbros get to live out the beginnings of their worker-replacement fantasies, there are going to be an unimaginable number of economically desperate people living in increasingly expensive times. I'm the kind of optimist who thinks that the resulting social crucible, though perhaps through terrible violence, will lead to deep social changes that effectively unseat from power the ultra-rich that continue to drag us all down this destructive path, and I think its worth some thinking now about what you might want the succeeding stable social configuration to look like so you can advocate towards that during points of malleability.
As others have said more eloquently, generative AI *should* be a technology that makes human lives on average easier, and it would be were it developed & controlled by humanists. The only reason that it's not, is that it's developed and controlled by terrible greedy people who use their unfairly hoarded wealth to immiserate the rest of us in order to maintain their dominance. In the long run, for our very survival, we need to depose them, and I look forward to what the term "generative AI" will mean after that finally happens.
@memeorandum@universeodon.comVance defends Trump amid attacks from his base over US involvement in Israel-Iran conflict (Associated Press)
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/vance-defends-trump-amid-attacks-base-us-involvement/story?id=122935232
http://www.memeorandum.com/250617/p116#a250617p116
@cdarwin@c.imIran vowed swift retaliation Saturday following the U.S. military’s strikes on the Iranian nuclear program.
“Every American citizen or military personnel in the region is now a target,” a commentator on Iranian state media said.
Al-Asad Air Base, an Iraqi installation 150 miles west of Baghdad that is operated jointly by the Iraqi and U.S. air forces, houses thousands of American troops,
the largest U.S. deployment in the country.
Iran and its proxies have in recent…
@45names@mastodon.social @cdarwin@c.imTrump gambles his presidency on war
If Iran does not agree to peace on Trump’s terms,
the president’s vow that
“there are many targets left”
opened the door to a much deeper and potentially longer conflict.
Already, that prospect is angering some members of his political base.
…
@arXiv_mathSG_bot@mastoxiv.pageThis https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.10866 has been replaced.
initial toot: https://mastoxiv.page/@arXiv_mat…
@Sustainable2050@mastodon.energyGood news! Iskander short-range ballistic missiles are used a lot against civilian targets in Ukraine.
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-strikes-russian-missile-base-in-bryansk-oblast-damages-…
@mikeymikey@hachyderm.ioI don't mind that they moved to 3d for Moonlighter 2, but not testing the demo for performance on the #SteamDeck seems like a huge miss
Really chugging. Apparently it's not great performance-wise on PC either. I'm not sure they understand their fan base.
@blakes7bot@mas.torpidity.netSeries D, Episode 12 - Warlord
ZEEONA: I didn't intend to. I go home tomorrow aboard their freighter. Tarrant will take me.
[Corridor in Scorpio base. Zukan and Avon are walking along.]
https://blake.torpidity.net/m/412/158 B7B3
@berlinbuzzwords@floss.socialTo conclude the first evening of Berlin Buzzwords, Gregor Bransky invites you to join a tour of c-base. Afterwards, you can unwind at one of its recreational areas, enjoying a refreshing beverage by the waterside of the Spree.
A travel group will form during the Get-Together.
📅 When: Today – 7 pm
📍 Where: c-base, Rungestraße 20 | 10179 Berlin
Learn more:
@Techmeme@techhub.socialShopify partners with Coinbase to enable USDC payments for its merchants through Coinbase's Base layer-2 network, starting with a limited group of merchants (CoinDesk)
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/06/
@45names@mastodon.social
@blackknight95857669@social.linux.pizzaPlayed the demo for The Alters today. I was already interested, but now it is on my wishlist and I am very much looking forward to its release. Resource gathering, crafting, base building, check. Time pressure mechanic "the sunrise will kill you, must move base", check.
I am especially intrigued by the story and the "need to recruit people to help you run the base and survive, so you just clone them" idea. I'm liking how they've built that mechanic and how …
@dingsextrem@mas.toMomentan halte ich das für ein Gerücht, aber sollte es sich als wahr herausstellen, chapeau!
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-ukraine-attacks-elite-russian-unit-base-nearly-7-000k…
@arXiv_csRO_bot@mastoxiv.pagePoutine: Vision-Language-Trajectory Pre-Training and Reinforcement Learning Post-Training Enable Robust End-to-End Autonomous Driving
Luke Rowe, Rodrigue de Schaetzen, Roger Girgis, Christopher Pal, Liam Paull
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.11234
@arXiv_csAI_bot@mastoxiv.pageReinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards Implicitly Incentivizes Correct Reasoning in Base LLMs
Xumeng Wen, Zihan Liu, Shun Zheng, Zhijian Xu, Shengyu Ye, Zhirong Wu, Xiao Liang, Yang Wang, Junjie Li, Ziming Miao, Jiang Bian, Mao Yang
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.14245
@cdarwin@c.imIn 2024, Vandenberg Space Force Base had 51 launches,
but proposed changes would increase that number to 100 launches per year at both the Space Launch Complex (SLC)-6 and SLC-4,
including both Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches.
The Falcon Heavy, which according to the EIS, has not launched out of Vandenberg Space Force Base in the past, would launch a maximum of five times per year from the SLC-6.
Because of the Falcon Heavy’s two side boosters landing separately, …
@datascience@genomic.social
@arXiv_mathDG_bot@mastoxiv.pageWarped products over one-dimensional base spaces and the RCD condition
Christian Ketterer
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.10809 https://ar…
@arXiv_csCL_bot@mastoxiv.pageMassive Supervised Fine-tuning Experiments Reveal How Data, Layer, and Training Factors Shape LLM Alignment Quality
Yuto Harada, Yusuke Yamauchi, Yusuke Oda, Yohei Oseki, Yusuke Miyao, Yu Takagi
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.14681
@aral@mastodon.ar.al* Government complicit in committing genocide brands sabotaging genocide as terrorism
#uk #littleEngland #israel #genocide
@arXiv_eessSP_bot@mastoxiv.pageOut-of-Band Modality Synergy Based Multi-User Beam Prediction and Proactive BS Selection with Zero Pilot Overhead
Kehui Li, Binggui Zhou, Jiajia Guo, Feifei Gao, Guanghua Yang, Shaodan Ma
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.15136
@kexpmusicbot@mastodonapp.uk
@tante@tldr.nettime.orgCalculating water/energy usage for "AI" per token is a bit problematic: A data center has a massive base load even if nobody uses it just by sheer existence. And since we have no actual data for any of the popular platforms all numbers floating around are problematic and not very useful.
Like how much power does one of those servers NVIDIA cards really save if its utilization is only 50%? And are the overhead costs actually counted?
@arXiv_mathAG_bot@mastoxiv.pagePersistence of Galois property of integral hypersurfaces across other characteristics
Taro Hayashi, Kento Otsuka, Keika Shimahara, Eito Naruse
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.06592
@matematico314@social.linux.pizzaÉ, o esquema de trabalho hoje serš na base do pomodoro.
@arXiv_csIR_bot@mastoxiv.pageXGraphRAG: Interactive Visual Analysis for Graph-based Retrieval-Augmented Generation
Ke Wang, Bo Pan, Yingchaojie Feng, Yuwei Wu, Jieyi Chen, Minfeng Zhu, Wei Chen
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.13782
@arXiv_mathNT_bot@mastoxiv.pageNote on the negative base xor sequence $n\oplus_{-b}(-n)$
H A Verrill
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.09509 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2506.095…
@arXiv_csSE_bot@mastoxiv.pageTowards a Knowledge Base of Common Sustainability Weaknesses in Green Software Development
Priyavanshi Pathania, Rohit Mehra, Vibhu Saujanya Sharma, Vikrant Kaulgud, Sanjay Podder, Adam P. Burden
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.08812
@ErikJonker@mastodon.socialNo worries people, the good news is Hegseth on Defense means it is the weakest departement ever. But shall we stop with the whole "NATO Act", it is clearly gone... Also a small detail, there is no need for a contingency plan because the US already has a large base and military in Greenland. But it fits with Hegseth's absolute stupidity.
"Hegseth says the Pentagon has contingency plans to invade Greenland if necessary"
@AntoninDanalet@datasci.socialEffect of the Gotthard Base Tunnel:
👉 a modest but statistically significant decline in the number of cars 🚗
👉 a substantial induced rail demand effect resulting from the travel time savings 🚅
Conclusion by the authors:
on such touristic routes, road and rail transport are not perfect substitutes
My personal conclusion:
👉 Modal shift needs push & pull measures
👉 Without other measures (pricing, reduced capacity, slowing), adding capacity only increas…
@arXiv_physicsfludyn_bot@mastoxiv.pageExtracting dominant dynamics about unsteady base flows
Alec J. Linot, Barbara Lopez-Doriga, Yonghong Zhong, Kunihiko Taira
https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.24075
@arXiv_astrophSR_bot@mastoxiv.pageEntropy proxy inversions as tracers of the evolution of physical conditions at the base of the solar convective envelope
G. Buldgen, A. Noels, V. A. Baturin, J. Christensen-Dalsgaard, S. V. Ayukov, A. V. Oreshina, R. Scuflaire
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.09503
@pre@boing.worldI believe I have managed to prove my ID in order to comply with the new laws that say I have to prove my ID to own the business I own that I'm sure already asked me to prove my ID when I registered it.
First we tried the on-web version, but that apparently relies upon the corporates having managed to profile and track me, because it told me they had no questions upon which to base identification. Good I guess? My avoid-tracking systems must be working at least a bit?
Next we tried the android app, but apparently the phone I tried that with is too old and the app won't install.
So next option is turning up at a post office with a printed letter. I don't own a printer though, so had to have them post that to me.
Took the letter and a driving licence up to the post office today and "It's not going through" they said, pointing to a stalled progress bar on an android app on a tablet.
Um. Okay. So?
Just wait longer apparently. About ten minutes and it finally proceeded and the post office man took a photograph of me after asking me to disrobe of my robe, strip down to a teeshirt and jeans.
Not sure in what sense this has proven my ID any more than it was already proven to get the driving licence or company registration in the first place?
Apparently I now have government logins for "One Login" and for "government gateway" and they are not the same thing? But sort of are the same thing?
Can't say I really understand it. Expect they'll introduce a third government login when they do these Digital ID cards they're talking about.
God knows how I'm supposed to know which to use when the company tax records need updating in a few months.
#id #government #oneLogin
@blakes7bot@mas.torpidity.netSeries D, Episode 01 - Rescue
TARRANT: He will if Orac's working. Now come on. We're wasting time. [starts to climb]
[Dayna does not follow, but continues to explore the small room. A hatch slides open in the floor.]
DAYNA: I knew it. Tarrant.
https://blake.torpidity.net/m/401/422
@arXiv_econGN_bot@mastoxiv.pageReplaced article(s) found for econ.GN. https://arxiv.org/list/econ.GN/new
[1/1]:
- The Effect of the Gotthard Base Tunnel on Road Traffic: A Synthetic Control Approach
Hannes Wallimann, Widar von Arx, Ann Hesse
@jamie@boothcomputing.social
@arXiv_eessIV_bot@mastoxiv.pageMultiViT2: A Data-augmented Multimodal Neuroimaging Prediction Framework via Latent Diffusion Model
Bi Yuda, Jia Sihan, Gao Yutong, Abrol Anees, Fu Zening, Calhoun Vince
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.13667
@45names@mastodon.social @berlinbuzzwords@floss.socialTo conclude the first evening of Berlin Buzzwords, Gregor Bransky invites you to join a tour of c-base. Afterwards, you can unwind at one of its recreational areas, enjoying a refreshing beverage by the waterside of the Spree.
A travel group will form during the Get-Together.
📅 When: June 17, 2025 – 7 pm
📍 Where: c-base, Rungestraße 20 | 10179 Berlin
Learn more:
@crell@phpc.socialI recently joined a startup. Nearly the entire code base was build by a single person over 3 years, who was learning programming as he went. Yep, he used #PHP.
Is it good code? Not by a long shot, though I've definitely seen worse. But it *works*, runs, and is making money. Now we can work to make it better, and make even more money.
*That* is why PHP is so popular, and still so relevant…
@Mediagazer@mstdn.socialNetflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos says the company will invest over €1B in Spain from 2025 to 2028; Netflix has an 8.7M subscriber base in the country (John Hopewell/Variety)
https://variety.com/2025/tv/global/netflix-spain-1-2-billion-…
@memeorandum@universeodon.comTrump Says Army Bases Will Revert to Confederate Names (Chris Cameron/New York Times)
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/10/us/politics/trump-army-base-rename-confederate.html
http://www.memeorandum.com/250610/p159#a250610p159
@arXiv_hepph_bot@mastoxiv.pageParticle Masses Spectrum from Harmonic Cascade Principles
Jonathan Washburn, Elshad Allahyarov
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.12859 https://
@arXiv_csNI_bot@mastoxiv.pageCost-Efficient Design for 5G-Enabled MEC Servers under Uncertain User Demands
Yunyi Wu (University of Tsukuba), Yongbing Zhang (University of Tsukuba)
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.13003
@karlauerbach@sfba.socialI just took a look at the proposed text for these "trump accounts".
The language begins at page 741 in the linked-to .pdf file, below.
The language is rather vague. For example, it does not indicate the base date for measuring the age of the "beneficiary". Is it the conception date or the live-birth date?
And the text is filled with terribly vague phrases like "Rules similar to the rules of section" - There are big devils lurking in that hor…
@arXiv_csNE_bot@mastoxiv.pageEvaluation of Nuclear Microreactor Cost-competitiveness in Current Electricity Markets Considering Reactor Cost Uncertainties
Muhammad R. Abdusammi, Ikhwan Khaleb, Fei Gao, Aditi Verma
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.13361
@usul@piaille.fr
@3sframe@social.linux.pizzaTried out the Gundam TCG over the weekend at a free learn and play and it was pretty fun. Kind of felt like Digimon mixed with Star Wars Unlimited. Love the card art design and the shield/base/mana system.
#GundamTCG #Gundam
@45names@mastodon.social @arXiv_eessSP_bot@mastoxiv.pageReinforcement Learning-Based Policy Optimisation For Heterogeneous Radio Access
Anup Mishra, \v{C}edomir Stefanovi\'c, Xiuqiang Xu, Petar Popovski, Israel Leyva-Mayorga
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.15273
@FandaSin@social.linux.pizzaLies of P: Overture - new DLC looks really good...I'll suffer.
(because I die a lot, but still, base game was awesome, cannot wait for new ways to die🤦😆)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnZqbPvFKL8
@steve@s.yelvington.comKent State may have figured prominently in Nixon's fall from power, but do not forget that Trump's base actively seeks such an incident. They own AR-15s precisely because they harbor blood fantasies about killing "libs."
@davidaugust@mastodon.onlineWon’t someone think of the jackbooted thugs?
“…ICE officers themselves…facing inhumane conditions…showing symptoms of respiratory infections…can’t get proper testing for diagnoses…at risk of rocket attacks from Yemeni terrorists…lack body armor or other protective gear. …Trump…said…judge was ‘literally putting ICE agents’ lives in danger.’
…not quite true…judge never said they had to stay there…officials are ‘manufacturing the…chaos they decry.’”
@arXiv_csRO_bot@mastoxiv.pageDynaGuide: Steering Diffusion Polices with Active Dynamic Guidance
Maximilian Du, Shuran Song
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.13922 https://
@arXiv_csCL_bot@mastoxiv.pageEliciting Reasoning in Language Models with Cognitive Tools
Brown Ebouky, Andrea Bartezzaghi, Mattia Rigotti
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.12115 https://
@arXiv_csIR_bot@mastoxiv.pageA Systematic Replicability and Comparative Study of BSARec and SASRec for Sequential Recommendation
Chiara D'Ercoli, Giulia Di Teodoro, Federico Siciliano
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.14692
@blakes7bot@mas.torpidity.netSeries A, Episode 10 - Breakdown
FARREN: How dare you! I'm in command of this base.
KAYN: You have forfeited that command, Farren, you gutless nothing.
VOICE: Weaponry.
FARREN: Stop that, I tell you! Take no orders-
https://blake.torpidity.net/m/110/565 B7B2
@arXiv_mathAG_bot@mastoxiv.pageClassically psh and pluriharmonic functions on Berkovich spaces
Walter Gubler, Joseph Rabinoff
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.13548 https://
@arXiv_mathNT_bot@mastoxiv.pagePositional numeral systems over polyadic rings
Steven Duplij
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.12930 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2506.12930…
@arXiv_physicsfludyn_bot@mastoxiv.pageThis https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.24075 has been replaced.
initial toot: https://mastoxiv.page/@ar…
@tiotasram@kolektiva.socialThe full formula for the probability of "success" is:
p = {
1/(2^(-n 1)) if n is negative, or
1 - (1/(2^(n 1))) if n is zero or positive
}
(Both branches have the same value when n is 0, so the behavior is smooth around the origin.)
How can we tweak this?
First, we can introduce fixed success and/or failure chances unaffected by level, with this formula only taking effect if those don't apply. For example, you could do 10% failure, 80% by formula, and 10% success to keep things from being too sure either way even when levels are very high or low. On the other hand, this flattening makes the benefit of extra advantage levels even less exciting.
Second, we could allow for gradations of success/failure, and treat the coin pools I used to explain that math like dice pools a bit. An in-between could require linearly more success flips to achieve the next higher grade of success at each grade. For example, simple success on a crit role might mean dealing 1.5x damage, but if you succeed on 2 of your flips, you get 9/4 damage, or on 4 flips 27/8, or on 7 flips 81/16. In this world, stacking crit levels might be a viable build, and just giving up on armor would be super dangerous. In the particular case I was using this for just now, I can't easily do gradations of success (that's the reason I turned to probabilities in the first place) but I think I'd favor this approach when feasible.
The main innovation here over simple dice pools is how to handle situations where the number of dice should be negative. I'm almost certain it's not a truly novel innovation though, and some RPG fan can point out which system already does this (please actually do this, I'm an RPG nerd too at heart).
I'll leave this with one more tweak we could do: what if the number 2 in the probability equation were 3, or 2/3? I think this has a similar effect to just scaling all the modifiers a bit, but the algebra escapes me in this moment and I'm a bit lazy. In any case, reducing the base of the probability exponent should let you get a few more gradations near 50%, which is probably a good thing, since the default goes from 25% straight to 50% and then to 75% with no integer stops in between.
@mpsgoettingen@academiccloud.socialFirst images of the Sun's south pole!
Solar Orbiter is the first space probe to look at the Sun's poles – and finds the magnetic field there in a state of turmoil. The Sun's magnetic field is currently undergoing a flip. During its latest flyby of the Sun at the end of March this year, the Solar Orbiter space probe had its first clear view of our star's poles. First images:
@45names@mastodon.social @arXiv_csAI_bot@mastoxiv.pageThis https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.23703 has been replaced.
initial toot: https://mastoxiv.page/@arXiv_csAI_…
@usul@piaille.fr @arXiv_csCL_bot@mastoxiv.pageiQUEST: An Iterative Question-Guided Framework for Knowledge Base Question Answering
Shuai Wang, Yinan Yu
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.01784 https://
@Techmeme@techhub.socialSources: Shein and Reliance plan to expand their Indian supplier base from 150 to 1,000 and sell India-made, Shein-branded clothes globally within 12 months (Reuters)
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/shein-
@arXiv_mathDG_bot@mastoxiv.pageExpanding Ricci solitons and Higgs bundles
Ramiro A. Lafuente, Adam Thompson
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.11362 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2…
@memeorandum@universeodon.comTrump visits Fort Bragg. The base has been renamed twice in 2 years. Why? (Kinsey Crowley/USA Today)
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/06/10/trump-fort-bragg-name-change-liberty-melania/84128837007/
http://www.memeorandum.com/250610/p109#a250610p109
@cdarwin@c.imMigrants placed on a deportation flight originally bound for South Sudan
are now being held in a converted shipping container on a U.S. naval base in Djibouti,
where the men and their guards are contending with baking hot temperatures, smoke from nearby burn pits and the looming threat of rocket attacks,
the Trump administration said.
@arXiv_mathAG_bot@mastoxiv.pageThis https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.14542 has been replaced.
initial toot: https://mastoxiv.page/@arXiv_mat…
@45names@mastodon.social @arXiv_eessSP_bot@mastoxiv.pageMovable-Antenna Array Enhanced Downlink NOMA
Nianzu Li, Peiran Wu, Lipeng Zhu, Derrick Wing Kwan Ng
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.11438 https://
@arXiv_csRO_bot@mastoxiv.pageAutomatic Operation of an Articulated Dump Truck: State Estimation by Combined QZSS CLAS and Moving-Base RTK Using Multiple GNSS Receivers
Taro Suzuki, Shotaro Kojima, Kazunori Ohno, Naoto Miyamoto, Takahiro Suzuki, Kimitaka Asano, Tomohiro Komatsu, Hiroto Kakizaki
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.02877
@45names@mastodon.social @45names@mastodon.social @blakes7bot@mas.torpidity.net#Blakes7 Series A, Episode 06 - Seek-Locate-Destroy
ESCON: Base Commander Escon reporting, sir.
TRAVIS: Yes, Base Commander?
https://blake.torpidity.net/m/106/396 B7B1
@cdarwin@c.imThe Trump administration is preparing to begin the transfer of potentially thousands of foreigners who are in the United States illegally
to the U.S. military base in Guantšnamo Bay, Cuba,
starting as early as this week,
said U.S. officials familiar with the matter.
The foreign nationals under consideration hail from a range of countries.
They include hundreds from friendly European nations, including Britain, Italy, France, Germany, Ireland, Belgium, the Nethe…
@45names@mastodon.social @blakes7bot@mas.torpidity.net#Blakes7 Series A, Episode 06 - Seek-Locate-Destroy
ESCON: Base Commander Escon reporting, sir.
TRAVIS: Yes, Base Commander?
https://blake.torpidity.net/m/106/396 B7B1
@cdarwin@c.imThe sort of people who support Trump will be absolutely thrilled about violence against Angelinos and Californians, whether immigrants or not
https://skywriter.blue/pages/did:plc:s6j27rxb3ic2rxw73ixgqv2p/post/3lr2itqgits2n
@45names@mastodon.social @45names@mastodon.social @45names@mastodon.social @45names@mastodon.social @45names@mastodon.social @45names@mastodon.social @45names@mastodon.social @45names@mastodon.social @45names@mastodon.social
