Tootfinder

This https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.11387 has been replaced.
initial toot: https://mastoxiv.page/@arXiv_eco…

Identifying Causal Effects in Information Provision Experiments
Information treatments often shift beliefs more for people with weak belief effects. Since standard TSLS and panel specifications in information provision experiments have weights proportional to belief updating in the first-stage, this dependence attenuates existing estimates. This is natural if people whose decisions depend on their beliefs gather information before the experiment. I propose a local least squares estimator that identifies unweighted average effects in several classes of exper…

Mal dormir accroit le risque d'accepter des récits complotistes.
https://theconversation.com/how-poor-sleep-could-fuel-belief-in-conspiracy-theories-251669

Improved belief propagation is sufficient for real-time decoding of quantum memory
Tristan M\"uller, Thomas Alexander, Michael E. Beverland, Markus B\"uhler, Blake R. Johnson, Thilo Maurer, Drew Vandeth
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.01779

Improved belief propagation is sufficient for real-time decoding of quantum memory
We introduce a new heuristic decoder, Relay-BP, targeting real-time quantum circuit decoding for large-scale quantum computers. Relay-BP achieves high accuracy across circuit-noise decoding problems: significantly outperforming BP+OSD+CS-10 for bivariate-bicycle codes and comparable to min-weight-matching for surface codes. As a lightweight message-passing decoder, Relay-BP is inherently parallel, enabling rapid low-footprint decoding with FPGA or ASIC real-time implementations, similar to stan…

In the responses to my #rp25 talk this year I got a lot of "Now digital rights organizations are libertarian? When did that change?" and I am sorry to say that digital rights discourse has been imbued with if not based on libertarian belief systems since the beginning. That is the heritage we need to move beyond.

Tru-POMDP: Task Planning Under Uncertainty via Tree of Hypotheses and Open-Ended POMDPs
Wenjing Tang, Xinyu He, Yongxi Huang, Yunxiao Xiao, Cewu Lu, Panpan Cai
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.02860

Tru-POMDP: Task Planning Under Uncertainty via Tree of Hypotheses and Open-Ended POMDPs
Task planning under uncertainty is essential for home-service robots operating in the real world. Tasks involve ambiguous human instructions, hidden or unknown object locations, and open-vocabulary object types, leading to significant open-ended uncertainty and a boundlessly large planning space. To address these challenges, we propose Tru-POMDP, a planner that combines structured belief generation using Large Language Models (LLMs) with principled POMDP planning. Tru-POMDP introduces a hierarc…

I went to a concentration camp, Neuengamme, yesterday to learn more about the local history. The visit has reinforced my belief that fascism must be stopped at all costs.

fab interview with @… guitarist dm hotep about building the wildly cool/expansive ghost horizons project around marshall allen & collaborators. https://pos…

Resonances: A Conversation with DM Hotep on Marshall Allen’s Ghost Horizons - PostGenre
In a 2021 interview, Henry Threadgill noted his belief that “[Marshall Allen] should have the highest award that can be bestowed on any artist for performing one-nighters at age 97. They should make up an award for such a person… he’s going unrecognized. It is a travesty. Can you imagine doing one-nighters at 97 years

Online Competitive Information Gathering for Partially Observable Trajectory Games
Mel Krusniak, Hang Xu, Parker Palermo, Forrest Laine
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.01927

Online Competitive Information Gathering for Partially Observable Trajectory Games
Game-theoretic agents must make plans that optimally gather information about their opponents. These problems are modeled by partially observable stochastic games (POSGs), but planning in fully continuous POSGs is intractable without heavy offline computation or assumptions on the order of belief maintained by each player. We formulate a finite history/horizon refinement of POSGs which admits competitive information gathering behavior in trajectory space, and through a series of approximations,…

This https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.00744 has been replaced.
initial toot: https://mastoxiv.page/@arXiv_ees…

Spatiotemporal Synchronization of Distributed Arrays using Particle-Based Loopy Belief Propagation
Sensing and imaging with distributed radio infrastructures (e.g., distributed MIMO, wireless sensor networks, multistatic radar) rely on knowledge of the positions, orientations, and clock parameters of distributed apertures. We extend a particle-based loopy belief propagation (BP) algorithm to cooperatively synchronize distributed agents to anchors in space and time. Substituting marginalization over nuisance parameters with approximate but closed-form concentration, we derive an efficient est…

„Nach mehr als dreißig Jahren löst Deutschland Japan als größten Gläubiger der Welt ab. Das Nettoauslandsvermögen der Deutschen belief sich Ende des vergangenen Jahres auf 3,6 Billionen Dollar.“ https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/deu

"When are we preachers going to stop apologizing for preaching the gospel of Jesus Christ? It’s my belief that bolder and truer messaging will draw people back to the congregations from which they have fled in droves over the last decades."
—Will Mebane ’06 M.Div. writing in the new issue of our Reflections journal, focused on: Is Christianity losing its religion?

Borrowing on Belief? Consumer Confidence and U.S. Credit -- A VECM Study
Samiha Tariq, Weikang Zhang
https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.21832 https://

Borrowing on Belief? Consumer Confidence and U.S. Credit -- A VECM Study
This study explores the interdependent relationship between consumer credit and consumer confidence in the United States using monthly data from January 1978 to August 2024. Utilizing a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the analysis focuses on the interplay between household borrowing behaviour and consumer sentiment while controlling for macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, inflation, unemployment, and money supply. The results reveal a stable long-run equilibrium: heightened cons…

The idea that a 18 year old can handle decisions like joining the army or starting a family,
but can't be allowed to do dangerous things like drink a beer or have sex with a MILF
is stupid beyond belief.
#StopTheHysteria #RespectYoungAdults

"Conspirituality is a kind of crowd-sourced knowledge, where the spread of a belief is taken to be support for its content."
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/wellness-right-wing-conspiracy-conspirituality-b27…

The Way, and the Truth, and the Life - Pray As You Go
https://prayasyougo.org/prayer/the-way-and-the-truth-and-the-life-2684
Image generated by Wes Fryer using ChatGPT, edited with Canva for iOS.

The way, and the truth, and the life - Pray As You Go
Today is Friday the 16th of May, in the 4th week of Eastertide.    The Kyiv Chamber Choir sing the Credo: “I believe in one God, the Father almighty, creator of heaven and earth.” As I start this prayer today, can I join in with this strong...

This https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.12926 has been replaced.
initial toot: https://mastoxiv.page/@arXiv_eco…

Comparative Statics for the Subjective
I study robust comparative statics for risk-averse subjective expected utility (SEU) maximizers. Starting with a finite menu of actions totally ordered by sensitivity to risk, I identify the transformations of her menu that lead a decision-maker to take a lower action, regardless of her particular utility function or belief. My main results reveal that a robust decrease in the action selected is guaranteed by an intuitive steepening/tilting of the actions' payoffs and necessitates a slightly we…