Tootfinder

I’ll just say this: For the very most part, the systems of our society do not reward creators. They reward people who have power over what is created.
A deep part of our society’s mythology is that we reward people with great ideas, people who make great things — and therefore those who are rewarded must somehow be great.
That is false. If you see someone rewarded, the most likely explanation is that they had power to reap rewards.
3/

During Thursday's two-hour phone call, Trump agreed to meet with Putin in Hungary in two weeks' time,
at a summit hosted by the country's far-right leader Viktor Orban in Budapest.
Trump said it would most likely be a "double meeting" between him and Putin, but that Mr Zelensky would be "in touch."
The summit will mark the 💥 first time Putin has set foot on EU soil 💥since the start of the war
- and is further complicated by him being ba…

Donald Trump makes weird comment about Volodymyr Zelensky's clothes at White House meeting
President Zelensky arrived for talks with Trump with high hopes of a breakthrough that could end the war in Ukraine

Derrick Henry among Week 16's top 30 predicted anytime touchdown scorers https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/47348367/nfl-week-16-touchdown-odds-predictions

I think we can actually prove that this constraint is the *only* constraint that can preserve freedom:
1. There will exist actors in a system who will wish to take advantage of others. Evolution drives survival and one strategy for increasing survival in an altruistic society is to become a parasite.
2. Expecting exploitative dynamics, a system needs to have a set of rules to manage exploitation.
3. If the set of rules is static it will lack the requisite variety necessary to manage the infinite possible behavior of humans so the system will fail.
4. If the system is dynamic then it must have a rule set about how it's own rules are updated. This would make the system recursive, which makes the system at least as complex as mathematics. Any system at least as complex as mathematics is necessarily either incomplete or inconsistent (Gödel's incompleteness theorem). If the system is incomplete, then constraints can be evaded which then allow a malicious agent to seize control of the system and update the rules for their own benefit. If constraints are incomplete, then a malicious agent can take advantage of others within the system.
5. Therefore, no social system can possibly protect freedom unless there exists a single metasystemic constraint (that the system must be optional) allowing for the system to be abandoned when compromised.
Oh, you might say, but this just means you have to infinitely abandon systems. Sure, but there's an evolutionary advantage to cooperation so there's evolutionary pressure to *not* be a malicious actor. So a malicious actor being able to compromise the whole system is likely to be a much more rare event. Compromising a system is a lot of work, so the first thing a malicious actor would want to do is preserve that work. They would want to lock you in. The most important objective to a malicious actor compromising a system would be to violate that metasystemic constraint, or all of their work goes out the window when everyone leaves.
And now you understand why borders exist, why fascists are obsessed with maintaining categories like gender, race, ethnicity, etc. This is why even Democrats like Newsom are on board with putting houseless people in concentration camps. And this is why the most important thing anarchists promote is the ability to choose not to be part of any of that.

Let's simulate the rest of the 2025 NFL season: The last three weeks, plus playoff and Super Bowl results https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/47326035/2025-nfl-season-simulation-final-three-weeks-standings-pl…

There are more RIFs coming, including most likely at CISA
White House to continue reductions in force as shutdown drags on
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/10/14/congress/more-rifs-00607296

Ten NFL Teams Most Likely to Feature a New Starting QB in 2026 https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/ten-nfl-teams-most-likely-feature-new-starting-qb-2026

Sources: Raymond Zage and James Lu, who control most of Grindr, are in talks to take it private after a Temasek unit sold shares pledged for personal loans (Liz Hoffman/Semafor)
https://www.semafor.com/article/10/13/2025/grindr-explor…

Grindr explores take-private after lender calls insiders’ loans
Dating app’s controlling shareholders are discussing buyout financing with Fortress Investment Group for a deal that would likely have national-security implications, people familiar with the matter said.

📊 Risk assessment: For most use cases (server admin, development, non-sensitive data), the practical risk is low. Your Docker logs and configs likely won't be
valuable in 15 years. However, healthcare, finance, and government sectors should act now.
⚙️ Quick fix: Suppress the warning by adding LogLevel ERROR to ~/.ssh/config for specific hosts. Better solution: Enable post-quantum key exchange on your SSH

"However, by 2015, support for independence stood at 52% among those on the left, compared with just 24% among those on the right – a difference of 28 points... In our most recent survey in 2024, those on the left were 34 points more likely than those on the right to say that Scotland should become an independent country"
#ScottishIndependence

Scottish Social Attitudes | 25 years of devolution in Scotland | National Centre for Social Research
This briefing charts some of the key developments in Scottish public opinion since the advent of devolution.

you don't move your newest and most powerful aircraft carrier into a completely new theatre for sh-ts and giggles folks.
There will be a major operation against Venezuela likely with an attempt to install a USA friendly regime
#war #theAmericanFascist
https://flipboard.com/@cnn/politics-17jf08kfz/-/a-nuJl8CjCQxKIDcpPjUUR3Q:a:132361178-/0

Series D, Episode 13 - Blake
BLAKE: Oh, most of it wasn't on Earth, Tarrant. Not what happened to me. [Arlen enters, Blake turns, Tarrant kicks the gun out of Blake's hand, shoves him into Arlen, and bolts out of the room, strongarming Deva on the way.]
ARLEN: Do you want him killed?!
https://blake.torpidity.net/m/413/…

I think today's worker is the owner of the company, he certainly is the assessor.
He worked a lot later than those without the vested interest there. 😆 I finished work at my job before he did! 🤭
All the wood was sanded down and remaining nude wood given some paint. We have a test plank in the foreground of the first picture here which is painted with a second coat of paint. Seems likely we lose all the wood grain when doing that, and so will prefer the paler look where it's obviously made of wood not paint.
Won't really know for sure till it's dry. Prefer the colour a bit darker like that but if we're hiding the wood grain we might as well have used MDF instead of pine. We're after something clearly made of wood.
Another area is test-painted with just the clearcoat top varnish as a second layer. That's likely to be right, just a bit more shiny and protected.
The carpenter proper is back from holiday and starts tomorrow. He has a lot of drawers and doors to build and edging to attach to make the door panels. Still hoping at least the carpentry will be pretty much all done by the end of the week but likely some painting and touching up still to do next week. Hopefully by the end of Tuesday because I'm not really able to be here all day each day for most of the two weeks after that.

@… I’ve already got most of the deps updated (though the test workflow needs updating)
but the next phase will likely be strictly bug fixes
then maybe we’ll talk about new features if it doesn’t turn out too terrible 😅

Had to correct my Malaysian #grab driver who thought that Bahubali was a #Tamil film.
Most likely, only the Tamil version was released in #Malaysia but its a

NFL Week 6 schedule rankings: Top 5 Sunday games most likely to come down to the final drive https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6694329/2025/10/10/nfl-week-6-lions-chiefs-49ers-bucs-how-to-watch/

A home near us exploded today, most likely a gas tank?
😟

The GAPS programme at TNG XYZ. A sub-Neptune suitable for atmospheric characterization in a multiplanet and mutually inclined system orbiting the bright K dwarf TOI-5789 (HIP 99452)
A. S. Bonomo, L. Naponiello, A. Sozzetti, S. Benatti, I. Carleo, K. Biazzo, P. E. Cubillos, M. Damasso, C. Di Maio, C. Dorn, N. Hara, D. Polychroni, M. -L. Steinmeyer, K. A. Collins, S. Desidera, X. Dumusque, A. F. Lanza, B. S. Safonov, C. Stockdale, D. Turrini, C. Ziegler, L. Affer, M. D'Arpa, V. Farde…

The GAPS programme at TNG XYZ. A sub-Neptune suitable for atmospheric characterization in a multiplanet and mutually inclined system orbiting the bright K dwarf TOI-5789 (HIP 99452)
Sub-Neptunes with planetary radii of $R_{p} \simeq 2-4 R_{\oplus}$ are the most common planets around solar-type stars in short-period ($P<100$ d) orbits. It is still unclear, however, what their most likely composition is, that is whether they are predominantly gas dwarfs or water worlds. The sub-Neptunes orbiting bright host stars are very valuable because they are suitable for atmospheric characterization, which can break the well-known degeneracy in planet composition from the planet bulk d…

Not All Sub-Neptune #Exoplanets Have Magma Oceans: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2041-8213/ae0c07 -> New study revises our picture of the most common planets in the galaxy: https://news.uchicago.edu/story/new-study-revises-our-picture-most-common-planets-galaxy - some ‘mini-Neptunes’ likely have solid surfaces rather than molten interiors.

Jonathan Taylor tops Week 7 top 25 predicted Anytime Touchdown scorers https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/46619137/nfl-week-7-touchdown-odds-predictions

"The flood of money into #AI has made America’s #billionaire #oligarchs far richer.
By Forbes’ count, 20 of the most notable

Beware the Oligarch's AI Bubble
They’re likely to burst.

Interacting galaxies in the IllustrisTNG simulations - IX: Mini mergers trigger AGN in cosmological simulations
Shoshannah Byrne-Mamahit, Sara L. Ellison, David R. Patton, Scott Wilkinson, Leonardo Ferreira, Connor Bottrell
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.12738

Interacting galaxies in the IllustrisTNG simulations - IX: Mini mergers trigger AGN in cosmological simulations
Galaxy mergers are transformative events that can cause gaseous inflows capable of triggering active galactic nuclei (AGN). Previous studies of AGN in simulations have mainly focused on major interactions (i.e. between approximately equal mass galaxies), which produce the strongest inflows and, therefore, would be the most likely to trigger AGN activity. However, minor interactions are far more common and may still enhance accretion onto supermassive black holes. We present an analysis of post-…

What Types of Code Review Comments Do Developers Most Frequently Resolve?
Saul Goldman, Hong Yi Lin, Jirat Pasuksmit, Patanamon Thongtanunam, Kla Tantithamthavorn, Zhe Wang, Ray Zhang, Ali Behnaz, Fan Jiang, Michael Siers, Ryan Jiang, Mike Buller, Minwoo Jeong, Ming Wu
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.05450

What Types of Code Review Comments Do Developers Most Frequently Resolve?
Large language model (LLM)-powered code review automation tools have been introduced to generate code review comments. However, not all generated comments will drive code changes. Understanding what types of generated review comments are likely to trigger code changes is crucial for identifying those that are actionable. In this paper, we set out to investigate (1) the types of review comments written by humans and LLMs, and (2) the types of generated comments that are most frequently resolved …

Letters to the editor from writers using AI chatbots are flooding scientific journals, likely written by writers seeking to boost their number of citations (Gina Kolata/New York Times)
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/science/letters-to-the-editor-ai-chatb…

The Editor Got a Letter From ‘Dr. B.S.’ So Did a Lot of Other Editors.
The rise of artificial intelligence has produced serial writers to science and medical journals, most likely using chatbots to boost the number of citations they’ve published.

"Here’s a problem that’s highly likely going to get much worse, people [are] outsourcing their thinking to AI. “Many people are becoming reliant on AI to navigate some of the most basic aspects of daily life. A colleague suggested that we might even call the most extreme users “LLeMmings”"
Brilliant. From the Crank.
Read it Now

The Dice — 041
The design of competitive Paris, Jack into ᑕ¥βєяรקค¢є, a signal for world revolution, seeking silence and a clear view without Akutaq. Frito is real, and it’s the scariest movie of 2025.

We've made it through another work week, so before you head out for the weekend, don't miss today's Metacurity for the most critical infosec developments you should know, including
--Suspected foreign actor likely accessed lawmakers' emails and chat logs in CBO hack,
--Italian consultant is latest public victim of Paragon spyware,
--WaPo was caught up in Oracle E-Business Suite breach,
--Landfall spyware targeted Galaxy phones in campaign,
--Site-…

Suspected foreign actor likely accessed lawmakers' emails and chat logs in CBO hack
Italian consultant is latest public victim of Paragon spyware, WaPo was caught up in Oracle E-Business Suite breach, Landfall spyware targeted Galaxy phones in campaign, Site-blocking can disrupt legitimate services, DHS is spying on college football games, RTV Noord was hit by attack, much more

Measurement-induced phase transition in interacting bosons from most likely quantum trajectory
Anna Delmonte, Zejian Li, Rosario Fazio, Alessandro Romito
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.24520

Measurement-induced phase transition in interacting bosons from most likely quantum trajectory
We propose a new theoretical method to describe the monitored dynamics of bosonic many-body systems based on the concept of the most likely trajectory. We show how such trajectory can be identified from the probability distribution of quantum trajectories, i.e. measurement readouts, and how it successfully captures the monitored dynamics beyond the average state. We prove the method to be exact in the case of Gaussian theories and then extend it to the interacting Sine-Gordon model. Although no…

The US National Security Strategy gives the impression that it was penned by Darth #Trump, as it picks up on some of the strange things he has said.
In fact, however, the author is most likely J.D. #Vance.
Trump's presidency is a threat, but Vance's would be a massive threat. While Trump is not …

WTF #Docker? (It's most likely me fucking up somewhere tho.)

China says the December 2020 theft of 127,272 BTC, now worth ~$13B, from Chinese mining pool LuBian is likely a "state-level hacker operation" led by the US (Bloomberg)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-11/c…

China Accuses US of Orchestrating $13 Billion Bitcoin Hack
China’s cybersecurity agency accused the American government of orchestrating the theft about $13 billion worth of Bitcoin, representing China’s most recent attempt to attribute major cyberattacks to the US.

Space impacts temporal processing via a visual-dependent spatially organized neural architecture https://doi.org/10.1523/jneurosci.1444-24.2025 "spatial features affected the temporal processing of sighted but not blind people, regardless of age."

Space impacts temporal processing via a visual-dependent spatially organized neural architecture
Establishing the temporal relationship between stimuli challenges the brain, requiring some tolerance for asynchronies to form coherent representations. Based on the theory of implicit causal inference, we hypothesized temporal processing of events is influenced by spatial features as stimuli coming from the same spatial location are most likely to derive from a common source and, consequently, implicitly merged in time. As visual experience guides the formation of neural sensory maps, we expec…

SF is learning the wrong lesson from speed cameras I'm afraid. There's no evidence these cameras are slowing drivers outside of the specific spots they're placed; that they'll slow outlier speeders most likely to kill; or that road diets wouldn't achieve better results for less money.

Commentary: Speed Cameras are a Good Start for Safe Streets - Streetsblog San Francisco
But all tools, not just speed cameras, must be used to achieve Vision Zero

Day 7: Brenda Romero
I hinted yesterday I'd be moving beyond a narrow definition of "author," so of course that means I'm going to include game designers. I'll definitely get back to some more traditional authors before I hit 20, but I wanted to mix things up early.
Brenda Romero is something of a celebrity in the niche culture that is the Game Developers Coherence, I like to imagine. Of course the misogyny there likely means many just pay attention to who her husband is, but she's a terrific designer in her own right, if not prolific.
Content warning: the Holocaust
To me her most outstanding game has always been "Train," which is an exhibition tabletop game in which players collaborate to load and unload cargo and move train cars around a board, with the stated objective of efficiently delivering cargo to meet certain collective goals. However, through both physical cues and in-game reveals, it becomes clear to players that the game they are playing stimulates the Holocaust, and the cargo they're moving is people being brought to extermination camps. The actual goal of the game is for the players to stop playing and walk away, or perhaps to play against the stated objective and gridlock the trains. Romero supervised play at the expos where it was presented, and intervened to stop the game if the players continued too far (in some cases not picking up on the hints offered because they had very little knowledge of the Holocaust as a historical event). I've never played the game myself; just heard Romero give a report about it, but the sheer genius of designing a game meant not to be played to help educate about a system within which defying the rules was the only ethical action earned her instant respect from me. Romero has a whole series of games in this vein about didn't historical events (not necessarily all designed to not be played), although last I checked in most are just at prototyping stages.
I've got other non-man game designers that will appear on this list, but Romero stood out to go first because she's a good example that you don't need to be someone prolific or widely-known to do great work; I'd bet most people have an author or two they respect who is not widely known (and I'll include at least one more from that category on this list).
#20AuthorsNoMen

Good Morning #Canada
Like most Canadians I suspect our grocery bill this week will be over budget as we prepare for a family #Christmas dinner and a week of holiday goodies. But help is on the way in January with the implementation of the Grocery Code of Conduct. Colour me skeptical but I'm not sure this is going to solve the issue of high grocery bills. I understand the attempt to eliminate unnecessary costs in the supply food chain. As a former manager in logistics, the fines and charges for missed delivery windows, fulfillment shortages or even the wrong pallets used, are real. But any reduction in supply chain costs will likely be absorbed as profit, not passed on to consumers. A far more effective solution would be an Excess Profits Tax where companies are charged a penalty tax when they earn profit that is unreasonable or above expectations, such as during COVID or a period of inflation.
#CanadaIsAwesome #Profiteering
https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/article/what-canadians-need-to-know-about-the-grocery-code-of-conduct/

Picus Security, an interesting security vendor I only recently became aware of, has a report out on the Fog Ransomware group. An easy protective control to put in place based on this group's TTPs is to block *.netlify.app. This is the domain used by Netlify's free tier apps and is being abused. Note that most legitimate business customers of Netlify will use their own domains to access Netlify apps, so blocking their free tier domain is not likely to impact your users.

A bribery attempt : "10€ if you cite me"
Never got that before, and most likely just a phishing atempt.
#bribery

Storyteller: "Bella is most likely best equipped to disassemble the device."
Bella (un-awakened mage): *disassembles device with a baseball bat*
Hermetic: "Let's take it to the Virtual Adepts, to see what they say."
Sam 'Segfault' (VA): *Looks distressed at the remains*
#ttrpg

> 1. is qmail as secure as they say?
Depends on what they were saying, but most likely yes.
-- Seen on debian-devel

"No group in America has fallen further, faster than young men. When I began talking about this several years ago, that was a controversial statement, especially on the left, where many pathologize masculinity.
While the right has suggested the solution is to take women and non-white people back to the 1950s, the left’s view is that young men don’t have problems, they are the problem.
Neither attitude helps."

The Cult of Therapy | No Mercy / No Malice
“Don’t read the comments,” I tell people, just before I have a drink and … read the comments. I knew my book Notes on Being a Man would spark controversy, as you get the most flak when you’re over the target, and some of the criticism (likely) misses the mark. The comment that hits home: […]

From Gary Marcus (via Brian Merchant) on OpenAIs latest predicaments:
"My guess is that they have cumulatively raised on the order of $100 billion since they launched, perhaps more than any other company in history, but have already spent most of it, and likely don’t have much more than a year’s runway left.”
#AI

2 NFC Teams most likely to collapse: Week 14 Cowboys rooting guide https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/cowboys/2025/12/07/week-14-cowboys-rooting-guide/87655571007/

"Australia's protected marine habitats defenseless against climate change by 2040"
#Australia #Climate #ClimateChange

Australia's protected marine habitats defenseless against climate change by 2040
New research has found that even Australia's most protected marine habitats are likely to suffer extreme ocean impacts by 2040, increasing threats to thousands of plant and animal species.

Most of the immigrants to this country are likely Catholics, so the immigration crackdown is supposed 'christians' discriminating against other Christians.

49ers' Christian McCaffrey likely to play through minor back injury vs. Titans: Source https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6887108/2025/12/13/christian-mccaffrey-injury-status-update-49ers/

Daisies of Shindagin Hollow most likely the Cutleaf Coneflower (𝑅𝑢𝑑𝑏𝑒𝑐𝑘𝑖𝑎 𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑎)
#photo #photography #wildflowerwednesday

NFL Trade Deadline: Which Teams Are Most Likely to Buy? Latest Intel From Execs https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/nfl-trade-deadline-which-teams-most-likely-buy-latest-intel-from-execs

AT 2018cow at ~5 years: additional evidence for a tidal disruption origin
Anne Inkenhaag, Andrew J. Levan, Andrew Mummery, Peter G. Jonker
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.08505 https…

AT 2018cow at ~5 years: additional evidence for a tidal disruption origin
The Luminous Fast Blue Optical Transient (LFBOT) AT 2018cow is the prototype of its class with an extensive set of multi-wavelength observations. Despite a rich data set there is, still, no consensus about the physical nature and origin of this event. AT 2018cow remained UV bright 2-4 years after the explosion, which points at an additional energy injection source, most likely from an accretion disk. We present additional late time UV data obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope, to show there…

Internal documents have revealed that Meta has projected it earns billions from ignoring scam ads that its platforms then targeted to users most likely to click on them.
@… is a gem.

Bombshell report exposes how Meta relied on scam ad profits to fund AI
Meta goosed its revenue by targeting users likely to click on scam ads, docs show.

> This was one of the main things I realized about American tennis coaches and European tennis coaches. American tennis coaches do not want to get fired. They want you to continue to pay them. And they understand something essential about the American personality—it’s essential vanity. The sort of American who is most likely to be taking tennis lessons does not probably, in their outside life, take well to criticism. Americans are mean, but fragile. Bullies, but babies.

Yeah, sure Google Gemini, sure.
PS: "Banoie" in Basque means "I'm leaving" in the dialect of Bizkaia.

The formation of Gaia BH3
Daniel Mar\'in Pina, Mark Gieles, Sara Rastello, Giuliano Iorio
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.07021 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2510.0…

The formation of Gaia BH3
The Gaia collaboration announced the discovery of a massive black hole (BH) with a low-mass giant star companion, Gaia BH3, located in the ED-2 stellar stream. The properties of Gaia BH3 bridge the gap between known Milky Way BHs and extragalactic BHs found with gravitational waves (GWs). We aim to determine the most likely formation scenario for Gaia BH3 in the progenitor cluster of the ED-2 stream. We perform $N$-body simulations of that progenitor cluster and find that, most likely, Gaia BH3…

I think the root of the “AI” evil is when AI researchers in the 1960s recognized that they outrageously underestimated the complexity of the human mind.
They became humiliated by their promises that AGI was just a few years away—and then went full goblin mode that’s lasting to this day.
Some of the OG researchers took it quite badly that they stalled and weren’t in the limelight anymore.
‣ Marvin Minsky (co-founder of MIT AI lab and arguably the most important early AI bro) went on to visit Epstein’s island multiple times.
‣ Karl Steinbuch, who came up with the German term for computer science ("Informatik")—who also was a literal Nazi (and likely war criminal) in World War II—later wrote articles in ultra-right magazines about things like “equal rights rob women of their children”.
‣ John McCarthy (inventor of Lisp, co-authored document that coined the term “Artificial Intelligence”) was a staunch Republican who years later claimed (in a serious article) that “thermostats have beliefs”.
[one moment, I am receiving more information]
‣ There’s a second Epstein Island AI pioneer? Who also was Chief Learning Officer at… Trump University? That would be Roger Schank (founded one of the first AI companies in the 1980s AI boom, it even had an IPO. Of course the 1980s AI bubble burst).
Obviously all of the above received all the awards in computer science and are very revered people.

Apple releases version 26.1 of its full family of OSes, including a "tinted" option for the Liquid Glass design to reduce transparency and increase contrast (John Voorhees/MacStories)
https://www.macstories.net/news/apple-releases-26-1-updates-…

Apple Releases 26.1 Updates to Its Operating Systems
Today, Apple released version 26.1 of its full family of OSes. Every platform received attention, including the proverbial “bug fixes and feature enhancements,” but it was iOS 26.1 and iPadOS 26.1 that received the most changes that are likely to be noticed by users. Liquid Glass: Tinted Let’s start with iOS 26.1 because most of

Dolphins vs. Panthers in Week 5 among top 10 remaining games most likely to impact 2026 NFL Draft order

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/d

NFL Trade Deadline: Which Teams Are Most Likely to Buy? Latest Intel From Execs https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/nfl-trade-deadline-which-teams-most-likely-buy-latest-intel-from-execs

If they were after the causes of whistleblowing, they certainly were on the right track:
“The NSA has some of the brightest minds in the country,” I began. “They’re honestly there to make a difference. Yet there’s no outlet for people who no longer feel like they’re on the right side. You’re requesting blind loyalty from some of the most nuanced and analytical individuals—individuals, not soldiers—to process your intelligence and make predictions. Furthermore, in 2017, and likely until…

'I Am Not Your Enemy': The Reality Winner Story
Book excerpt: “The world’s biggest terrorist has a Pikachu bedspread.”

Lost a rook ceph node this week, most likely power supply related. Moved the drives to another shell, boot and back in business 😃
Now to work out what has failed and why……
#homelab

In the US, men who smoke are around 21 times more likely to die from lung cancer than men who have never smoked.
But the damage doesn’t stop there:
smoking also increases the risk of other cancers,
including mouth, throat, bladder and pancreatic cancer,
in addition to other health conditions such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD),
heart disease, and diabetes.
Why does one habit harm so many organs?
Cigarettes carry a mixture of carcinoge…

Smoking increases the risk of death from many causes
Most of us have heard that smoking damages the lungs. The chart drives this home: in the US, men who smoke are around 21 times more likely to die from lung cancer than men who have never smoked.

The fracturing of the Dutch far-right, after Wilder's reminded everyone that bigots are bad at compromise, is definitely a relief. Dutch folks I've talked to definitely see D66 as progressive, <strike>so there's no question this is a hard turn to the left (even if it's not a total flip to the far-left)</strike> a lot of folks don't agree. I'm going to let the comments speak rather than editorialize myself..
While this is a useful example of how a democracy can be far more resilient to fascism than the US, that is, perhaps, not the most interesting thing about Dutch politics. The most interesting thing is something Dutch folks take for granted and never think of as such: there are two "governments."
The election was for the Tweede Kamer. This is a house of representatives. The Dutch use proportional representation, so people can (more or less) vote for the parties they actually want. Parties <strike>rarely</strike> never actually get a ruling majority, so they have to form coalition governments. This forces compromise, which is something Wilders was extremely bad at. He was actually responsible for collapsing the coalition his party put together, which triggered this election... and a massive loss of seats for his party.
Dutch folks do still vote strategically, since a larger party has an easier time building the governing coalition and the PM tends to come from the largest party. This will likely be D66, which is really good for the EU. D66 has a pretty radical plan to solve the housing crisis, and it will be really interesting to see if they can pull it off. But that's not the government I want to talk about right now.
In the Netherlands, failure to control water can destroy entire towns. A good chunk of the country is below sea level. Both floods and land reclamation have been critical parts of Dutch history. So in the 1200's or so, the Dutch realized that some things are too important to mix with normal politics.
You see, if there's an incompetent government that isn't able to actually *do* anything (see Dick Schoof and the PVV/VVD/NSC/BBB coalition) you don't want your dikes to collapse and poulders to flood. So the Dutch created a parallel "government" that exists only to manage water: waterschap or heemraadschap (roughly "Water Board" in English). These are regional bureaucracies that exist only to manage water. They exist completely outside the thing we usually talk about as a "government" but they have some of the same properties as a government. They can, for example, levy taxes. The central government contributes funds to them, but lacks authority over them. Water boards are democratically elected and can operate more-or-less independent of the central government.
Controlling water is a common problem, so water boards were created to fulfill the role of commons management. Meanwhile, so many other things in politics run into the very same "Tragedy of the Commons" problems. The right wing solution to commons management is to let corporations ruin everything. The left-state solution is to move everything into the government so it can be undermined and destroyed by the right. The Dutch solution to this specific problem has been to move commons management out of the domain of the central government into something else.
And when I say "government" here, I'm speaking more to the liberal definition of the term than to an anarchist definition. A democratically controlled authority that facilitates resource management lacks the capacity for coercive violence that anarchists define as "government." (Though I assume they might leverage police or something if folks refuse to pay their taxes, but I can't imagine anyone choosing not to.)
As the US federal government destroys the social fabric of the US, as Trump guts programs critical to people's survival, it might be worth thinking about this model. These authorities weren't created by any central authority, they evolved from the people. Nothing stops Americans from building similar institutions that are both democratic and outside of the authority of a government that could choose to defund and abolish them... nothing but the realization that yes, you actually can.
#USPol #NLPol

NFL Week 6 schedule rankings: Top 5 Sunday games most likely to come down to the final drive https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6694329/2025/10/10/nfl-week-6-lions-chiefs-49ers-bucs-how-to-watch/

https://www.techmeme.com/251104/p19#a251104p19
The rise of artificial intelligence has produced serial writers to science and medical journals, most likely using chatbots to boost the number of citations they’ve published.

European law enforcement arrests nine suspects involved in an alleged crypto fraud ring that stole €600M+ via fake investment platforms promising high returns
By Sergiu Gatlan / BleepingComputer. View the full context on Techmeme.

NFL Week 5 schedule rankings: Top 5 Sunday games most likely to light up the scoreboard https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6682105/2025/10/03/nfl-week-5-schedule-jets-cowboys-bills-patriots-how-to-watch/

Yes I did…. Chalk (Chuck) it up to bad Sunday decisions. 😆
Bye Chuck 👋
I redirected the domain to the UK Republic party as the most likely vessel to make the change happen.
https://www.republic.org.uk
@…

Sources: Meta plans deep budget cuts to its metaverse efforts in 2026, potentially as high as 30% and most likely including layoffs as early as January (Kurt Wagner/Bloomberg)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-04/meta-s…

On some log-concavity properties of the Alexander-Conway and Links-Gould invariants
Matthew Harper, Ben-Michael Kohli, Jiebo Song, Guillaume Tahar
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.16868

On some log-concavity properties of the Alexander-Conway and Links-Gould invariants
The Links--Gould invariant $\mathrm{LG}(L ; t_0, t_1)$ of a link $L$ is a two-variable quantum generalization of the Alexander--Conway polynomial $Δ_L(t)$ and has been shown to share some of its most geometric features in several recent works. Here we suggest that $\mathrm{LG}$ likely shares another of the Alexander polynomial's most distinctive - and mysterious - properties: for alternating links, the coefficients of the Links-Gould polynomial alternate and appear to form a log-concave two-in…

CoPlanner: An Interactive Motion Planner with Contingency-Aware Diffusion for Autonomous Driving
Ruiguo Zhong, Ruoyu Yao, Pei Liu, Xiaolong Chen, Rui Yang, Jun Ma
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.17080

CoPlanner: An Interactive Motion Planner with Contingency-Aware Diffusion for Autonomous Driving
Accurate trajectory prediction and motion planning are crucial for autonomous driving systems to navigate safely in complex, interactive environments characterized by multimodal uncertainties. However, current generation-then-evaluation frameworks typically construct multiple plausible trajectory hypotheses but ultimately adopt a single most likely outcome, leading to overconfident decisions and a lack of fallback strategies that are vital for safety in rare but critical scenarios. Moreover, th…

The Progenitor of the S147 Supernova Remnant
Elvira Cruz-Cruz, Christopher S. Kochanek
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.02132 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2510.02132

The Progenitor of the S147 Supernova Remnant
The supernova remnant (SNR) S147 contains the pulsar PSR J0538+2817 and a likely unbound binary companion, HD 37424. It is the only good Galactic candidate for a binary unbound by a core-collapse supernova (SN). Using Gaia DR3 parallaxes and photometry, we select the stars local to SNR S147 in a cylinder with a projected radius of $100$ pc and a parallax range of $0.614 < \varpi < 0.787$ mas (a length of $\simeq 360$ pc). We individually model the most luminous of these stars. The two most lumi…

NFL Week 5 schedule rankings: Top 5 Sunday games most likely to light up the scoreboard https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6682105/2025/10/03/nfl-week-5-schedule-jets-cowboys-bills-patriots-how-to-watch/

💦 Boosting work engagement through a simple smartphone diary
#work

Boosting work engagement through a simple smartphone diary
Work engagement is a positive and persistent state of mind related to one's work. It is characterized by high energy and mental resilience (vigor), enthusiasm and involvement (dedication), and complete concentration in the task at hand (absorption). Engaged workers are not merely more productive; they are more likely to be proactive, creative, and less susceptible to burnout. Most importantly, work engagement has been consistently linked to many health benefits and overall well-being.

OpenAI has already committed to spending $1.4 trillion on infrastructure for AI, Sam Altman said during a livestreamed event on Tuesday, and he expects to continue moving aggressively on that front.
To finance that, OpenAI will need to raise unprecedented amounts of capital through venture funding, debt and an eventual public offering, the last of which Altman said remains the most likely path for the company.
SoftBank, one of OpenAI’s biggest backers, had reserved the right to pu…

This bring me to the second question we had about the paper. Does it suggest hallucinations are a fundamental part of the way we do AI? No. It suggests non-hallucinating models are perfectly possible (if we give up calibration) and it offers a very cheap and simple hack to help us better find them.
Most likely, this has been used behind the scenes by OpenAI for a while, and it's why GPT5 does so much better than 4 in this respect.

Turns out that what hit flight #UA1093 was most likely a balloon from https://windbornesystems.com - this was brought up first in the thread https://x.com/vk5qi/status/1980386581497409891 and now the company confirms that it's a very strong possibility: https://x.com/johndeanl/status/1980462264974209292. See also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZzbS30xdjM for a short video about the company and how it's filling the atmosphere with long-duration balloons carrying weather sensors. They had just been hailed as one of the best inventions of 2025: https://time.com/collections/best-inventions-2025/7318250/windborne-systems-atlas/ ...

eROSITA-selection of new period-bounce Cataclysmic Variables: First follow-up confirmation using TESS and SDSS
Daniela Mu\~noz-Giraldo, Beate Stelzer, Axel Schwope, Santiago Hern\'andez-D\'iaz, Scott F. Anderson, Sebastian Demasi
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.17216

eROSITA-selection of new period-bounce Cataclysmic Variables: First follow-up confirmation using TESS and SDSS
Between 40$\%$ and 80$\%$ of cataclysmic variables (CVs) are expected to have evolved past the period-minimum and contain a degenerate donor. However, observational surveys for CVs have only been able to detect a few of these highly evolved "period-bouncers", most likely due to the intrinsic faintness associated with their predicted low mass accretion rates. We have produced an initial selection of 137 high-likelihood period-bounce candidates from WD catalog based on our multiwavelength period-…

Woody Marks among Week 15's top 30 predicted anytime touchdown scorers https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/47279189/nfl-week-15-touchdown-odds-predictions

Source: HR software company Gusto paid ~$600M to acquire Guideline, which offers 401(k) plans to SMBs; Guideline raised $340M and had a $1.15B valuation in 2021 (TechCrunch)
https://techcrunch.com/2025/10/01/sources-g…

Sources: Gusto paid $600M to acquire Guideline, plans to divest customers linked to rivals | TechCrunch
While the HR tech Guideline was last valued at $1.15 billion, the sale will likely yield a profit for most investors.

Impacts of Blade Camber on Cross-Flow Turbine Performance and Loading
Ari Athair, Caelan Consing, Jennifer A. Franck, Owen Williams
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.14416 https://

Impacts of Blade Camber on Cross-Flow Turbine Performance and Loading
Cross-flow turbines show promise for renewable energy generation from wind and tidal sources. The rotating reference frame of cross-flow turbine blades results in virtual camber and incidence due to streamline curvature, altering the lift, drag and pitching moment of the blades. Adding geometric camber is therefore likely to alter performance and loading, however there is little consensus regarding the direction of camber that might be most favorable. This study compares 2% concave-in and conca…

NFL Week 5 schedule rankings: Top 5 Sunday games most likely to light up the scoreboard https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6682105/2025/10/03/nfl-week-5-schedule-jets-cowboys-bills-patriots-how-to-watch/

Inside the Jaguar Land Rover cyberattack, which forced a shutdown of most systems and is likely to cost the company hundreds of millions of pounds (The Guardian)
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/sep/20/jaguar-land-rover-hack-factor…

Extreme NiI/FeI abundance ratio in the coma of the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS
Damien Hutsem\'ekers, Jean Manfroid, Emmanu\"el Jehin, Cyrielle Opitom, Michele Bannister, Juan Pablo Carvajal, Rosemary Dorsey, K Aravind, Baltasar Luco, Brian Murphy, Thomas H. Puzia, Rohan Rahatgaonkar
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.26053

Extreme NiI/FeI abundance ratio in the coma of the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS
Emission lines of FeI and NiI are commonly found in the coma of solar system comets, even at large heliocentric distances. These atoms are most likely released from the surface of the comet's nucleus or from a short-lived parent. The presence of these lines in cometary spectra is unexpected because the surface blackbody equilibrium temperature is too low to allow the sublimation of refractory minerals containing these metals. These lines were also found in the interstellar comet 2I/Borisov whic…

Identifying tidal disruption events among radio transient galaxies
M. Kunert-Bajraszewska, D. Kozie{\l}-Wierzbowska, D. Stern, A. Krauze, N. Zafar, T. Connor, M. J. Graham
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.01773

Identifying tidal disruption events among radio transient galaxies
We present the optical and infrared properties of a sample of 24 radio transient sources discovered in the Very Large Array Sky Survey (VLASS). Previous studies of their radio emission showed that these sources resemble young gigahertz-peaked spectrum (GPS) radio sources, but are less powerful and characterized by low-power jets. The bursts of radio activity in most cases are likely due to intrinsic changes in the accretion processes. However, for a few sources in this sample, we cannot rule ou…

2025 NFL trade deadline primer: Players to watch and all the deals already completed https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6765677/2025/11/03/2025-nfl-trade-deadline-primer-players-to-watch/

Jayden Daniels injury: Where Marcus Mariota ranks among NFL backup QBs most likely to deliver wins in Week 3

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/week-3-qb-injuries-backup-analysis/

The Formation of Neutron Star Systems through Electron-capture Supernovae: A Review
Bo Wang, Dongdong Liu, Yunlang Guo, Zhanwen Han
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.25915 https://

The Formation of Neutron Star Systems through Electron-capture Supernovae: A Review
It is generally believed that the electron-capture reactions happen when the oxygen-neon (ONe) cores grow in masses close to the Chandrasekhar limit, leading to the formation of neutron stars (NSs) via electron-capture supernovae (EC-SNe). EC-SNe are predicted to be the most likely short-lived and faint optical transients, and a small ejecta mass is expected during the collapse. This kind of SNe provide an alternative channel for producing isolated NSs and NS systems, especially for the formati…

Good Morning #Canada
I've been a bachelor since Thursday as my wife is in Toronto helping my daughter with her latest chemo session. She's back late Monday when life, for me, returns to normal. According to #StatsCan, being married at our age (late 60s) is the most prevalent relationship. But Canadians in younger age brackets are more likely these days to be living common-law and getting married later in life, if at all. Canada has one of the highest rates of common-law relationships worldwide and the highest in the G7. Between 1981 and 2021, common-law couples increased 447% while the number of married couples grew by only 26%. Common-law unions are most prevalent in Nunavut (52%), Quebec (43%), and the Northwest Territories (36%). It's no surprise that more than half of Canadians believe that marriage is not necessary, and even less surprising that this opinion is stronger with young men versus young women.
#CanadaIsAwesome #Relationship
https://madeinca.ca/marriage-statistics-canada/

What's Next for This Disappointing Raiders Team https://www.si.com/nfl/raiders/las-vegas-jakobi-meyers-maxx-crosby-geno-smith

2025 NFL trade deadline primer: Players to watch and all the deals already completed https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6765677/2025/11/03/2025-nfl-trade-deadline-primer-players-to-watch/

I have been an “end Canada’s connection to the Monarchy”* guy for awhile now. I heard Canadian constitutional expert Phillipe Lagasse say once that it would be a very big lift for Canada to do so because of the requirement to get all provinces to agree on a constitutional amendment, etc etc. In his opinion, the most likely way for it to happen, then, would be for the UK population to end the Royal family’s power themselves.
Seems that is starting to become more likely.
*I avoid using the term Republican because I don’t want to be confused with any notion of advocating for anything like the USA. A Canadian republic can look and function exactly the same as it does today while ending the royal head of state. Bermuda being the most recent example.
#epstein #uk #royalfamily #monarchy #republic #AbolishTheMonarchy
https://mastodon.scot/@ScottishGreens/115440697972592005

Monte Carlo parameter study for Seyfert AGN-starburst composite galaxies NGC1068 and NGC7469
Silvia Salvatore, Bj\"orn Eichmann, Giacomo Sommani, Santiago del Palacio, Patrik M. Veres, Julia Becker Tjus
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.17751

Monte Carlo parameter study for Seyfert AGN-starburst composite galaxies NGC1068 and NGC7469
Seyfert-starburst composite galaxies host two promising phenomena of non-thermal high-energy radiation. In this regard the IceCube observation of high-energy neutrinos from the direction of the Seyfert-starburst composite galaxy NGC 1068 is not surprising. More recently, another Seyfert-starburst composite galaxy, NGC 7469, has shown hints for neutrino emission at even higher energies. Theoretical investigations could clarify that their so-called AGN corona is the most-likely origin of these ne…

Emanuel Wilson among Week 12's top 25 predicted anytime touchdown scorers https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/47039548/nfl-week-12-touchdown-odds-predictions

Diffuse emission from stochastic sources
Anton Stall, Philipp Mertsch
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.14776 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.14776

Diffuse emission from stochastic sources
Diffuse emission in gamma-rays and neutrinos are produced by the interaction of cosmic rays with the interstellar medium. Below some hundreds of TeV, the sources of these cosmic rays are most likely Galactic. Hence, observations of high-energy gamma-rays and neutrinos can be used to probe the flux of cosmic rays in other parts of the Galaxy. Supernova remnants are usually considered as the prime candidate for the acceleration of Galactic cosmic rays. They inject cosmic rays in a point-like and …